Probabilistic Monte-Carlo method for modelling and prediction of electronics component life

Power electronics are widely used in electric vehicles, railway locomotive and new generation aircrafts. Reliability of these components directly affect the reliability and performance of these vehicular platforms. In recent years, several research work about reliability, failure mode and aging analysis have been extensively carried out. There is a need for an efficient algorithm able to predict the life of power electronics component. In this paper, a probabilistic Monte-Carlo framework is developed and applied to predict remaining useful life of a component. Probability distributions are used to model the component’s degradation process. The modelling parameters are learned using Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The prognostic is carried out by the mean of simulation in this paper. Monte-Carlo simulation is used to propagate multiple possible degradation paths based on the current health state of the component. The remaining useful life and confident bounds are calculated by estimating mean, median and percentile descriptive statistics of the simulated degradation paths. Results from different probabilistic models are compared and their prognostic performances are evaluated

Prognostics and health management of power electronics

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a major tool enabling systems to evaluate their reliability in real-time operation. Despite ground-breaking advances in most engineering and scientific disciplines during the past decades, reliability engineering has not seen significant breakthroughs or noticeable advances. Therefore, self-awareness of the embedded system is also often required in the sense that the system should be able to assess its own health state and failure records, and those of its main components, and take action appropriately. This thesis presents a radically new prognostics approach to reliable system design that will revolutionise complex power electronic systems with robust prognostics capability enhanced Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBT) in applications where reliability is significantly challenging and critical. The IGBT is considered as one of the components that is mainly damaged in converters and experiences a number of failure mechanisms, such as bond wire lift off, die attached solder crack, loose gate control voltage, etc. The resulting effects mentioned are complex. For instance, solder crack growth results in increasing the IGBT’s thermal junction which becomes a source of heat turns to wire bond lift off. As a result, the indication of this failure can be seen often in increasing on-state resistance relating to the voltage drop between on-state collector-emitter. On the other hand, hot carrier injection is increased due to electrical stress. Additionally, IGBTs are components that mainly work under high stress, temperature and power consumptions due to the higher range of load that these devices need to switch. This accelerates the degradation mechanism in the power switches in discrete fashion till reaches failure state which fail after several hundred cycles. To this end, exploiting failure mechanism knowledge of IGBTs and identifying failure parameter indication are background information of developing failure model and prognostics algorithm to calculate remaining useful life (RUL) along with ±10% confidence bounds. A number of various prognostics models have been developed for forecasting time to failure of IGBTs and the performance of the presented estimation models has been evaluated based on two different evaluation metrics. The results show significant improvement in health monitoring capability for power switches.Furthermore, the reliability of the power switch was calculated and conducted to fully describe health state of the converter and reconfigure the control parameter using adaptive algorithm under degradation and load mission limitation. As a result, the life expectancy of devices has been increased. These all allow condition-monitoring facilities to minimise stress levels and predict future failure which greatly reduces the likelihood of power switch failures in the first place

Stochastic RUL calculation enhanced with TDNN-based IGBT failure modeling

Power electronics are widely used in the transport and energy sectors. Hence, the reliability of these power electronic components is critical to reducing the maintenance cost of these assets. It is vital that the health of these components is monitored for increasing the safety and availability of a system. The aim of this paper is to develop a prognostic technique for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of power electronic components. There is a need for an efficient prognostic algorithm that is embeddable and able to support on-board real-time decision-making. A time delay neural network (TDNN) is used in the development of failure modes for an insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT). Initially, the time delay neural network is constructed from training IGBTs' ageing samples. A stochastic process is performed for the estimation results to compute the probability of the health state during the degradation process. The proposed TDNN fusion with a statistical approach benefits the probability distribution function by improving the accuracy of the results of the TDDN in RUL prediction. The RUL (i.e., mean and confidence bounds) is then calculated from the simulation of the estimated degradation states. The prognostic results are evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and relative accuracy (RA) prognostic evaluation metrics

Prognostics of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors

Insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) are the devices of choice for medium and high power, low frequency applications. IGBTs have been reported to fail under excessive electrical and thermal stresses in variable speed drives and are considered as reliability problems in wind turbines, inverters in hybrid electric vehicles and railway traction motors. There is a need to develop methods to detect anomalous behavior and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of IGBTs to prevent system downtime and costly failures. In this study, a framework for prognostics of IGBTs was developed to provide early warnings of failure and predict the remaining useful life. The prognostic framework was implemented on non punch through (NPT) IGBTs. Power cycling of IGBTs was performed and the gate-emitter voltage, collector-emitter voltage, collector-emitter current and case temperature was monitored in-situ during aging. The on-state collector-emitter current (ICE(ON)) and collector-emitter voltage (VCE(ON)) were identified as precursors to IGBT failure. Electrical characterization and X-ray analysis was performed before and after aging to map degradation in the devices to observed trends in the precursor parameters. A Mahalanobis distance based approach was used for anomaly detection. The initial ICE(ON) and VCE(ON) parameters were used to compute the healthy MD distance. This healthy MD distance was transformed and the mean and standard deviation of the transformed MD data was obtained. The μ+3σ upper bound obtained from the transformed healthy MD was then used as a threshold for anomaly detection. This approach was able to detect anomalous behavior in IGBTs before failure. Upon anomaly detection, a particle filter approach was used for predicting the remaining useful life of the IGBTs. A system model was developed using the degradation trend of the VCE(ON) parameter. This model was obtained by a least squares regression of the IGBT degradation curve. The tracking and prediction performance of the model with the particle filter was demonstrated

Health Condition Assessment of Multi-Chip IGBT Module with Magnetic Flux Density

To achieve efficient conversion and flexible control of electronic energy, insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) power modules as the dominant power semiconductor devices are increasingly applied in many areas such as electric drives, hybrid electric vehicles, railways, and renewable energy systems. It is known that IGBTs are the most vulnerable components in power converter systems. To achieve high power density and high current capability, several IGBT chips are connected in parallel as a multi-chip IGBT module, which makes the power modules less reliable due to a more complex structure. The lowered reliability of IGBT modules will not only cause safety problems but also increase operation costs due to the failure of IGBT modules. Therefore, the reliability of IGBTs is important for the overall system, especially in high power applications. To improve the reliability of IGBT modules, this thesis proposes a new health state assessment model with a more sensitive precursor parameter for multi-chip IGBT module that allows for condition-based maintenance and replacement prior to complete failure. Accurate health condition monitoring depends on the knowledge of failure mechanism and the selection of highly sensitive failure precursor. IGBT modules normally wear out and fail due to thermal cycling and operating environment. To enhance the understanding of the failure mechanism and the external characteristic performance of multi-chip IGBT modules, an electro-thermal finite element model (FEM) of a multi-chip IGBT module used in wind turbine converter systems was established with considerations for temperature dependence of material property, the thermal coupling effect between components, and the heat transfer process. The electro-thermal FEM accurately performed temperature distribution and the distribution electrical characteristic parameters during chip solder degradation. This study found an increased junction temperature, large change of temperature distribution, and more serious imbalanced current sharing during a single chip solder aging, thereby accelerating the aging of the whole IGBT module. According to the change of thermal and electrical parameters with chip solder fatigue, the sensitivity of fatigue sensitive parameters (FSPs) was analyzed. The collector current of the aging chip showed the highest sensitivity with the chip solder degradation compared with the junction temperature, case temperature, and collector-emitter voltage. However, the current distribution of internal components remains inaccessible through direct measurements or visual inspection due to the package. As the relationship between the current and magnetic field has been studied and gradually applied in sensor technologies, magnetic flux density was proposed instead of collector current as a new precursor for health condition monitoring. Magnetic flux density distribution was extracted by an electro-thermal-magnetic FEM of the multi-chip IGBT module based on electromagnetic theory. Simulation results showed that magnetic flux density had even higher sensitivity than collector current with chip solder degradation. In addition, the magnetic flux density was only related with the current and was not influenced by temperature, which suggested good selectivity. Therefore, the magnetic flux density was selected as the precursor due to its better sensitivity, selectivity, and generality. Finally, a health state assessment model based on backpropagation neural network (BPNN) was established according to the selected precursor. To localize and evaluate chip solder degradation, the health state of the IGBT module was determined by the magnetic flux density for each chip and the corresponding operating conduction current. BPNN featured good self-learning, self-adapting, robustness and generalization ability to deal with the nonlinear relationship between the four inputs and health state. Experimental results showed that the proposed model was accurate and effective. The health status of the IGBT modules was effectively recognized with an overall recognition rate of 99.8%. Therefore, the health state assessment model built in this thesis can accurately evaluate current health state of the IGBT module and support condition-based maintenance of the IGBT module

Degradation modeling and degradation-aware control of power electronic systems

The power electronics market is valued at $23.25 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach$ 36.64 billion by 2027. Power electronic systems (PES) have been extensively used in a wide range of critical applications, including automotive, renewable energy, industrial variable-frequency drive, etc. Thus, the PESs\u27 reliability and robustness are immensely important for the smooth operation of mission-critical applications. Power semiconductor switches are one of the most vulnerable components in the PES. The vulnerability of these switches impacts the reliability and robustness of the PES. Thus, switch-health monitoring and prognosis are critical for avoiding unexpected shutdowns and preventing catastrophic failures. The importance of the prognosis study increases dramatically with the growing popularity of the next-generation power semiconductor switches, wide bandgap switches. These switches show immense promise in the high-power high-frequency operations due to their higher breakdown voltage and lower switch loss. But their wide adaptation is limited by the inadequate reliability study. A thorough prognosis study comprising switch degradation modeling, remaining useful life (RUL) estimation, and degradation-aware controller development, is important to enhance the PESs\u27 robustness, especially with wide bandgap switches. In this dissertation, three studies are conducted to achieve these objectives- 1) Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT) degradation modeling and RUL estimation, 2) cascode Gallium Nitride (GaN) Field-Effect Transistor (FET) degradation modeling and RUL estimation, and 3) Degradation-aware controller design for a PES, solid-state transformer (SST). The first two studies have addressed the significant variation in RUL estimation and proposed degradation identification methods for IGBT and cascode GaN FET. In the third study, a system-level integration of the switch degradation model is implemented in the SST. The insight into the switch\u27s degradation pattern from the first two studies is integrated into developing a degradation-aware controller for the SST. State-of-the-art controllers do not consider the switch degradation that results in premature system failure. The proposed low-complexity degradation-aware and adaptive SST controller ensures optimal degradation-aware power transfer and robust operation over the lifetime

Application of Kalman filter to estimate junction temperature in IGBT power modules

Knowledge of instantaneous junction temperature is essential for effective health management of power converters, enabling safe operation of the power semiconductors under all operating conditions. Methods based on fixed thermal models are typically unable to compensate for degradation of the thermal path resulting from aging and the effect of variable cooling conditions. Thermosensitive electrical parameters (TSEPs), on the other hand, can give an estimate of junction temperature TJ, but measurement inaccuracies and the masking effect of varying operating conditions can corrupt the estimate. This paper presents a robust and noninvasive real-time estimate of junction temperature that can provide enhanced accuracy under all operating and cooling conditions when compared to model-based or TSEP-based methods alone. The proposed method uses a Kalman filter to fuse the advantages of model-based estimates and an online measurement of TSEPs. Junction temperature measurements are obtained from an online measurement of the on-state voltage, VCE(ON) , at high current and processed by a Kalman filter, which implements a predict-correct mechanism to generate an adaptive estimate of TJ. It is shown that the residual signal from the Kalman filter may be used to detect changes in thermal model parameters, thus allowing the assessment of thermal path degradation. The algorithm is implemented on a full-bridge inverter and the results verified with an IR camer

In situ diagnostics and prognostics of wire bonding faults in IGBT modules for electric vehicle drives

This paper presents a diagnostic and prognostic condition monitoring method for insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) power modules for use primarily in electric vehicle applications. The wire-bond-related failure, one of the most commonly observed packaging failures, is investigated by analytical and experimental methods using the on-state voltage drop as a failure indicator. A sophisticated test bench is developed to generate and apply the required current/power pulses to the device under test. The proposed method is capable of detecting small changes in the failure indicators of the IGBTs and freewheeling diodes and its effectiveness is validated experimentally. The novelty of the work lies in the accurate online testing capacity for diagnostics and prognostics of the power module with a focus on the wire bonding faults, by injecting external currents into the power unit during the idle time. Test results show that the IGBT may sustain a loss of half the bond wires before the impending fault becomes catastrophic. The measurement circuitry can be embedded in the IGBT drive circuits and the measurements can be performed in situ when the electric vehicle stops in stop-and-go, red light traffic conditions, or during routine servicing