Improving Automated Driving through Planning with Human Internal States

This work examines the hypothesis that partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) planning with human driver internal states can significantly improve both safety and efficiency in autonomous freeway driving. We evaluate this hypothesis in a simulated scenario where an autonomous car must safely perform three lane changes in rapid succession. Approximate POMDP solutions are obtained through the partially observable Monte Carlo planning with observation widening (POMCPOW) algorithm. This approach outperforms over-confident and conservative MDP baselines and matches or outperforms QMDP. Relative to the MDP baselines, POMCPOW typically cuts the rate of unsafe situations in half or increases the success rate by 50%.Comment: Preprint before submission to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1702.0085

E-MCTS: Deep Exploration in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning by Planning with Epistemic Uncertainty

One of the most well-studied and highly performing planning approaches used in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) is Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Key challenges of MCTS-based MBRL methods remain dedicated deep exploration and reliability in the face of the unknown, and both challenges can be alleviated through principled epistemic uncertainty estimation in the predictions of MCTS. We present two main contributions: First, we develop methodology to propagate epistemic uncertainty in MCTS, enabling agents to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in their predictions. Second, we utilize the propagated uncertainty for a novel deep exploration algorithm by explicitly planning to explore. We incorporate our approach into variations of MCTS-based MBRL approaches with learned and provided dynamics models, and empirically show deep exploration through successful epistemic uncertainty estimation achieved by our approach. We compare to a non-planning-based deep-exploration baseline, and demonstrate that planning with epistemic MCTS significantly outperforms non-planning based exploration in the investigated deep exploration benchmark.Comment: Submitted to NeurIPS 2023, accepted to EWRL 202

The Hanabi Challenge: A New Frontier for AI Research

From the early days of computing, games have been important testbeds for studying how well machines can do sophisticated decision making. In recent years, machine learning has made dramatic advances with artificial agents reaching superhuman performance in challenge domains like Go, Atari, and some variants of poker. As with their predecessors of chess, checkers, and backgammon, these game domains have driven research by providing sophisticated yet well-defined challenges for artificial intelligence practitioners. We continue this tradition by proposing the game of Hanabi as a new challenge domain with novel problems that arise from its combination of purely cooperative gameplay with two to five players and imperfect information. In particular, we argue that Hanabi elevates reasoning about the beliefs and intentions of other agents to the foreground. We believe developing novel techniques for such theory of mind reasoning will not only be crucial for success in Hanabi, but also in broader collaborative efforts, especially those with human partners. To facilitate future research, we introduce the open-source Hanabi Learning Environment, propose an experimental framework for the research community to evaluate algorithmic advances, and assess the performance of current state-of-the-art techniques.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figures, In Press (Artificial Intelligence

Planning to Learn: A Novel Algorithm for Active Learning during Model-Based Planning

Active Inference is a recent framework for modeling planning under uncertainty. Empirical and theoretical work have now begun to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and how it might be improved. A recent extension - the sophisticated inference (SI) algorithm - improves performance on multi-step planning problems through recursive decision tree search. However, little work to date has been done to compare SI to other established planning algorithms. SI was also developed with a focus on inference as opposed to learning. The present paper has two aims. First, we compare performance of SI to Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) schemes designed to solve similar problems. Second, we present an extension of SI - sophisticated learning (SL) - that more fully incorporates active learning during planning. SL maintains beliefs about how model parameters would change under the future observations expected under each policy. This allows a form of counterfactual retrospective inference in which the agent considers what could be learned from current or past observations given different future observations. To accomplish these aims, we make use of a novel, biologically inspired environment designed to highlight the problem structure for which SL offers a unique solution. Here, an agent must continually search for available (but changing) resources in the presence of competing affordances for information gain. Our simulations show that SL outperforms all other algorithms in this context - most notably, Bayes-adaptive RL and upper confidence bound algorithms, which aim to solve multi-step planning problems using similar principles (i.e., directed exploration and counterfactual reasoning). These results provide added support for the utility of Active Inference in solving this class of biologically-relevant problems and offer added tools for testing hypotheses about human cognition.Comment: 31 pages, 5 figure

Decision-Making in Autonomous Driving using Reinforcement Learning

The main topic of this thesis is tactical decision-making for autonomous driving. An autonomous vehicle must be able to handle a diverse set of environments and traffic situations, which makes it hard to manually specify a suitable behavior for every possible scenario. Therefore, learning-based strategies are considered in this thesis, which introduces different approaches based on reinforcement learning (RL). A general decision-making agent, derived from the Deep Q-Network (DQN) algorithm, is proposed. With few modifications, this method can be applied to different driving environments, which is demonstrated for various simulated highway and intersection scenarios. A more sample efficient agent can be obtained by incorporating more domain knowledge, which is explored by combining planning and learning in the form of Monte Carlo tree search and RL. In different highway scenarios, the combined method outperforms using either a planning or a learning-based strategy separately, while requiring an order of magnitude fewer training samples than the DQN method. A drawback of many learning-based approaches is that they create black-box solutions, which do not indicate the confidence of the agent\u27s decisions. Therefore, the Ensemble Quantile Networks (EQN) method is introduced, which combines distributional RL with an ensemble approach, to provide an estimate of both the aleatoric and the epistemic uncertainty of each decision. The results show that the EQN method can balance risk and time efficiency in different occluded intersection scenarios, while also identifying situations that the agent has not been trained for. Thereby, the agent can avoid making unfounded, potentially dangerous, decisions outside of the training distribution. Finally, this thesis introduces a neural network architecture that is invariant to permutations of the order in which surrounding vehicles are listed. This architecture improves the sample efficiency of the agent by the factorial of the number of surrounding vehicles

Adaptation and Communication in Human-Robot Teaming to Handle Discrepancies in Agents' Beliefs about Plans

When agents collaborate on a task, it is important that they have some shared mental model of the task routines -- the set of feasible plans towards achieving the goals. However, in reality, situations often arise that such a shared mental model cannot be guaranteed, such as in ad-hoc teams where agents may follow different conventions or when contingent constraints arise that only some agents are aware of. Previous work on human-robot teaming has assumed that the team has a set of shared routines, which breaks down in these situations. In this work, we leverage epistemic logic to enable agents to understand the discrepancy in each other's beliefs about feasible plans and dynamically plan their actions to adapt or communicate to resolve the discrepancy. We propose a formalism that extends conditional doxastic logic to describe knowledge bases in order to explicitly represent agents' nested beliefs on the feasible plans and state of execution. We provide an online execution algorithm based on Monte Carlo Tree Search for the agent to plan its action, including communication actions to explain the feasibility of plans, announce intent, and ask questions. Finally, we evaluate the success rate and scalability of the algorithm and show that our agent is better equipped to work in teams without the guarantee of a shared mental model.Comment: 10 pages, Published at ICAPS 2023 (Main Track

Strategic Argumentation Dialogues for Persuasion: Framework and Experiments Based on Modelling the Beliefs and Concerns of the Persuadee

Persuasion is an important and yet complex aspect of human intelligence. When undertaken through dialogue, the deployment of good arguments, and therefore counterarguments, clearly has a significant effect on the ability to be successful in persuasion. Two key dimensions for determining whether an argument is good in a particular dialogue are the degree to which the intended audience believes the argument and counterarguments, and the impact that the argument has on the concerns of the intended audience. In this paper, we present a framework for modelling persuadees in terms of their beliefs and concerns, and for harnessing these models in optimizing the choice of move in persuasion dialogues. Our approach is based on the Monte Carlo Tree Search which allows optimization in real-time. We provide empirical results of a study with human participants showing that our automated persuasion system based on this technology is superior to a baseline system that does not take the beliefs and concerns into account in its strategy.Comment: The Data Appendix containing the arguments, argument graphs, assignment of concerns to arguments, preferences over concerns, and assignment of beliefs to arguments, is available at the link http://www0.cs.ucl.ac.uk/staff/a.hunter/papers/unistudydata.zip The code is available at https://github.com/ComputationalPersuasion/MCC

Strategic argumentation dialogues for persuasion: Framework and experiments based on modelling the beliefs and concerns of the persuadee

Persuasion is an important and yet complex aspect of human intelligence. When undertaken through dialogue, the deployment of good arguments, and therefore counterarguments, clearly has a significant effect on the ability to be successful in persuasion. Two key dimensions for determining whether an argument is 'good' in a particular dialogue are the degree to which the intended audience believes the argument and counterarguments, and the impact that the argument has on the concerns of the intended audience. In this paper, we present a framework for modelling persuadees in terms of their beliefs and concerns, and for harnessing these models in optimizing the choice of move in persuasion dialogues. Our approach is based on the Monte Carlo Tree Search which allows optimization in real-time. We provide empirical results of a study with human participants that compares an automated persuasion system based on this technology with a baseline system that does not take the beliefs and concerns into account in its strategy