9,318 research outputs found
Mean-field-like approximations for stochastic processes on weighted and dynamic networks
The explicit use of networks in modelling stochastic processes such as epidemic dynamics
has revolutionised research into understanding the impact of contact pattern
properties, such as degree heterogeneity, preferential mixing, clustering, weighted and
dynamic linkages, on how epidemics invade, spread and how to best control them. In
this thesis, I worked on mean-field approximations of stochastic processes on networks
with particular focus on weighted and dynamic networks. I mostly used low dimensional
ordinary differential equation (ODE) models and explicit network-based stochastic simulations to model and analyse how epidemics become established and spread in weighted and dynamic networks.
I begin with a paper presenting the susceptible-infected-susceptible/recovered (SIS,
SIR) epidemic models on static weighted networks with different link weight distributions.
This work extends the pairwise model paradigm to weighted networks and gives
excellent agreement with simulations. The basic reproductive ratio, R0, is formulated
for SIR dynamics. The effects of link weight distribution on R0 and on the spread of
the disease are investigated in detail. This work is followed by a second paper, which
considers weighted networks in which the nodal degree and weights are not independent.
Moreover, two approximate models are explored: (i) the pairwise model and (ii)
the edge-based compartmental model. These are used to derive important epidemic
descriptors, including early growth rate, final epidemic size, basic reproductive ratio
and epidemic dynamics. Whilst the first two papers concentrate on static networks,
the third paper focuses on dynamic networks, where links can be activated and/or
deleted and this process can evolve together with the epidemic dynamics. We consider
an adaptive network with a link rewiring process constrained by spatial proximity. This
model couples SIS dynamics with that of the network and it investigates the impact of rewiring on the network structure and disease die-out induced by the rewiring process.
The fourth paper shows that the generalised master equations approach works well for
networks with low degree heterogeneity but it fails to capture networks with modest
or high degree heterogeneity. In particular, we show that a recently proposed generalisation
performs poorly, except for networks with low heterogeneity and high average
degree
Epidemic processes in complex networks
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence
for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide
range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of
real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and
nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of
epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of
dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic
spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel
analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical
relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity
concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful
theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.
Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists
share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar
models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and
innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the
paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results
concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally,
the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in
coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio
The role of caretakers in disease dynamics
One of the key challenges in modeling the dynamics of contagion phenomena is
to understand how the structure of social interactions shapes the time course
of a disease. Complex network theory has provided significant advances in this
context. However, awareness of an epidemic in a population typically yields
behavioral changes that correspond to changes in the network structure on which
the disease evolves. This feedback mechanism has not been investigated in
depth. For example, one would intuitively expect susceptible individuals to
avoid other infecteds. However, doctors treating patients or parents tending
sick children may also increase the amount of contact made with an infecteds,
in an effort to speed up recovery but also exposing themselves to higher risks
of infection. We study the role of these caretaker links in an adaptive network
models where individuals react to a disease by increasing or decreasing the
amount of contact they make with infected individuals. We find that pure
avoidance, with only few caretaker links, is the best strategy for curtailing
an SIS disease in networks that possess a large topological variability. In
more homogeneous networks, disease prevalence is decreased for low
concentrations of caretakers whereas a high prevalence emerges if caretaker
concentration passes a well defined critical value.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figure
Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease
A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America
Shift of percolation thresholds for epidemic spread between static and dynamic small-world networks
The aim of the study was to compare the epidemic spread on static and dynamic
small-world networks. The network was constructed as a 2-dimensional
Watts-Strogatz model (500x500 square lattice with additional shortcuts), and
the dynamics involved rewiring shortcuts in every time step of the epidemic
spread. The model of the epidemic is SIR with latency time of 3 time steps. The
behaviour of the epidemic was checked over the range of shortcut probability
per underlying bond 0-0.5. The quantity of interest was percolation threshold
for the epidemic spread, for which numerical results were checked against an
approximate analytical model. We find a significant lowering of percolation
thresholds for the dynamic network in the parameter range given. The result
shows that the behaviour of the epidemic on dynamic network is that of a static
small world with the number of shortcuts increased by 20.7 +/- 1.4%, while the
overall qualitative behaviour stays the same. We derive corrections to the
analytical model which account for the effect. For both dynamic and static
small-world we observe suppression of the average epidemic size dependence on
network size in comparison with finite-size scaling known for regular lattice.
We also study the effect of dynamics for several rewiring rates relative to
latency time of the disease.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure
Dynamical Systems on Networks: A Tutorial
We give a tutorial for the study of dynamical systems on networks. We focus
especially on "simple" situations that are tractable analytically, because they
can be very insightful and provide useful springboards for the study of more
complicated scenarios. We briefly motivate why examining dynamical systems on
networks is interesting and important, and we then give several fascinating
examples and discuss some theoretical results. We also briefly discuss
dynamical systems on dynamical (i.e., time-dependent) networks, overview
software implementations, and give an outlook on the field.Comment: 39 pages, 1 figure, submitted, more examples and discussion than
original version, some reorganization and also more pointers to interesting
direction
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