Editorial Comment on the Special Issue of "Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems"

This special issue collects contributions from the participants of the "Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems" workshop, which cover a wide range of important problems and new approaches that lie in the intersection of information theory and dynamical systems. The contributions include theoretical characterization and understanding of the different types of information flow and causality in general stochastic processes, inference and identification of coupling structure and parameters of system dynamics, rigorous coarse-grain modeling of network dynamical systems, and exact statistical testing of fundamental information-theoretic quantities such as the mutual information. The collective efforts reported herein reflect a modern perspective of the intimate connection between dynamical systems and information flow, leading to the promise of better understanding and modeling of natural complex systems and better/optimal design of engineering systems

Block-diagonal covariance selection for high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models

Gaussian graphical models are widely utilized to infer and visualize networks of dependencies between continuous variables. However, inferring the graph is difficult when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables. To reduce the number of parameters to estimate in the model, we propose a non-asymptotic model selection procedure supported by strong theoretical guarantees based on an oracle inequality and a minimax lower bound. The covariance matrix of the model is approximated by a block-diagonal matrix. The structure of this matrix is detected by thresholding the sample covariance matrix, where the threshold is selected using the slope heuristic. Based on the block-diagonal structure of the covariance matrix, the estimation problem is divided into several independent problems: subsequently, the network of dependencies between variables is inferred using the graphical lasso algorithm in each block. The performance of the procedure is illustrated on simulated data. An application to a real gene expression dataset with a limited sample size is also presented: the dimension reduction allows attention to be objectively focused on interactions among smaller subsets of genes, leading to a more parsimonious and interpretable modular network.Comment: Accepted in JAS

Predicting trend reversals using market instantaneous state

Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated behaviour during trend reversals dominated by the pairwise component. In particular, these events are predicted with high significant accuracy by the ensemble's instantaneous state.Comment: 18 pages, 15 figure