Ensembles of jittered association rule classifiers

The ensembling of classifiers tends to improve predictive accuracy. To obtain an ensemble with N classifiers, one typically needs to run N learning processes. In this paper we introduce and explore Model Jittering Ensembling, where one single model is perturbed in order to obtain variants that can be used as an ensemble. We use as base classifiers sets of classification association rules. The two methods of jittering ensembling we propose are Iterative Reordering Ensembling (IRE) and Post Bagging (PB). Both methods start by learning one rule set over a single run, and then produce multiple rule sets without relearning. Empirical results on 36 data sets are positive and show that both strategies tend to reduce error with respect to the single model association rule classifier. A bias–variance analysis reveals that while both IRE and PB are able to reduce the variance component of the error, IRE is particularly effective in reducing the bias component. We show that Model Jittering Ensembling can represent a very good speed-up w.r.t. multiple model learning ensembling. We also compare Model Jittering with various state of the art classifiers in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency.This work was partially supported by FCT project Rank! (PTDC/EIA/81178/2006) and by AdI project Palco3.0 financed by QREN and Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER), and also supported by Fundacao Ciencia e Tecnologia, FEDER e Programa de Financiamento Plurianual de Unidades de I & D. Thanks are due to William Cohen for kindly providing the executable code for the SLIPPER implementation. Our gratitude goes also to our anonymous reviewers who have helped to significantly improve this paper by sharing their knowledge and their informed criticism with the authors

Nonparametric Uncertainty Quantification for Single Deterministic Neural Network

This paper proposes a fast and scalable method for uncertainty quantification of machine learning models' predictions. First, we show the principled way to measure the uncertainty of predictions for a classifier based on Nadaraya-Watson's nonparametric estimate of the conditional label distribution. Importantly, the proposed approach allows to disentangle explicitly aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. The resulting method works directly in the feature space. However, one can apply it to any neural network by considering an embedding of the data induced by the network. We demonstrate the strong performance of the method in uncertainty estimation tasks on text classification problems and a variety of real-world image datasets, such as MNIST, SVHN, CIFAR-100 and several versions of ImageNet.Comment: NeurIPS 2022 pape

Novel Computationally Intelligent Machine Learning Algorithms for Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery

This thesis addresses three major issues in data mining regarding feature subset selection in large dimensionality domains, plausible reconstruction of incomplete data in cross-sectional applications, and forecasting univariate time series. For the automated selection of an optimal subset of features in real time, we present an improved hybrid algorithm: SAGA. SAGA combines the ability to avoid being trapped in local minima of Simulated Annealing with the very high convergence rate of the crossover operator of Genetic Algorithms, the strong local search ability of greedy algorithms and the high computational efficiency of generalized regression neural networks (GRNN). For imputing missing values and forecasting univariate time series, we propose a homogeneous neural network ensemble. The proposed ensemble consists of a committee of Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNNs) trained on different subsets of features generated by SAGA and the predictions of base classifiers are combined by a fusion rule. This approach makes it possible to discover all important interrelations between the values of the target variable and the input features. The proposed ensemble scheme has two innovative features which make it stand out amongst ensemble learning algorithms: (1) the ensemble makeup is optimized automatically by SAGA; and (2) GRNN is used for both base classifiers and the top level combiner classifier. Because of GRNN, the proposed ensemble is a dynamic weighting scheme. This is in contrast to the existing ensemble approaches which belong to the simple voting and static weighting strategy. The basic idea of the dynamic weighting procedure is to give a higher reliability weight to those scenarios that are similar to the new ones. The simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed ensemble model

Preference rules for label ranking: Mining patterns in multi-target relations

In this paper, we investigate two variants of association rules for preference data, Label Ranking Association Rules and Pairwise Association Rules. Label Ranking Association Rules (LRAR) are the equivalent of Class Association Rules (CAR) for the Label Ranking task. In CAR, the consequent is a single class, to which the example is expected to belong to. In LRAR, the consequent is a ranking of the labels. The generation of LRAR requires special support and confidence measures to assess the similarity of rankings. In this work, we carry out a sensitivity analysis of these similarity-based measures. We want to understand which datasets benefit more from such measures and which parameters have more influence in the accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we propose an alternative type of rules, the Pairwise Association Rules (PAR), which are defined as association rules with a set of pairwise preferences in the consequent. While PAR can be used both as descriptive and predictive models, they are essentially descriptive models. Experimental results show the potential of both approaches.This research has received funding from the ECSEL Joint Undertaking, the framework programme for research and innovation horizon 2020 (2014-2020) under grant agreement number 662189-MANTIS-2014-1, and by National Funds through the FCT — Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) as part of project UID/EEA/50014/2013

Rhythmic fluctuations in mnemonic signatures during associative recall

The intricate linking of information processing and neural representations to the underlying hippocampal neural rhythms during episodic memory retrieval are yet to be fully explored in human subjects. In this doctoral thesis, the temporal order of these relationships was investigated, with emphasis on how the processes evolve and take place over time. Empirical evidence and neural network models suggest that hippocampus and the hippocampal theta rhythm play a central role in episodic memory. In the first two studies, different oscillatory dynamics in the hippocampal circuit thought to provide optimal states for encoding and retrieval were investigated. The third study investigated the role of the hippocampal theta oscillation as an adaptive mechanism in regulating competition between similar memories. And lastly, the fourth study investigated sharp-wave ripples in promoting successful episodic memory retrieval. Throughout the four chapters, memory content was decoded using multivariate pattern classification, and the timing of memory reactivation was linked to two prominent oscillatory brain signatures: the hippocampal theta rhythm on the one hand, and hippocampal sharp-wave ripples on the other. In sum, this doctoral thesis provides support for the powerful computations along the hippocampal theta oscillation, and the close interplay between hippocampus and neocortical areas, foremost at time of retrieva

Robust and efficient approach to feature selection with machine learning

Most statistical analyses or modelling studies must deal with the discrepancy between the measured aspects of analysed phenomenona and their true nature. Hence, they are often preceded by a step of altering the data representation into somehow optimal for the following methods.This thesis deals with feature selection, a narrow yet important subset of representation altering methodologies.Feature selection is applied to an information system, i.e., data existing in a tabular form, as a group of objects characterised by values of some set of attributes (also called features or variables), and is defined as a process of finding a strict subset of them which fulfills some criterion.There are two essential classes of feature selection methods: minimal optimal, which aim to find the smallest subset of features that optimise accuracy of certain modelling methods, and all relevant, which aim to find the entire set of features potentially usable for modelling. The first class is mostly used in practice, as it adheres to a well known optimisation problem and has a direct connection to the final model performance. However, I argue that there exists a wide and significant class of applications in which only all relevant approaches may yield usable results, while minimal optimal methods are not only ineffective but even can lead to wrong conclusions.Moreover, all relevant class substantially overlaps with the set of actual research problems in which feature selection is an important result on its own, sometimes even more important than the finally resulting black-box model. In particular this applies to the p>>n problems, i.e., those for which the number of attributes is large and substantially exceeds the number of objects; for instance, such data is produced by high-throughput biological experiments which currently serve as the most powerful tool of molecular biology and a fundament of the arising individualised medicine.In the main part of the thesis I present Boruta, a heuristic, all relevant feature selection method. It is based on the concept of shadows, by-design random attributes incorporated into the information system as a reference for the relevance of original features in the context of whole structure of the analysed data. The variable importance on its own is assessed using the Random Forest method, a popular ensemble classifier.As the performance of the Boruta method turns out insatisfactory for some important applications, the following chapters of the thesis are devoted to Random Ferns, an ensemble classifier with the structure similar to Random Forest, but of a substantially higher computational efficiency. In the thesis, I propose a substantial generalisation of this method, capable of training on generic data and calculating feature importance scores.Finally, I assess both the Boruta method and its Random Ferns-based derivative on a series of p>>n problems of a biological origin. In particular, I focus on the stability of feature selection; I propose a novel methodology based on bootstrap and self-consistency. The results I obtain empirically confirm the validity of aforementioned effects characteristic to minimal optimal selection, as well as the efficiency of proposed heuristics for all relevant selection.The thesis is completed with a study of the applicability of Random Ferns in musical information retrieval, showing the usefulness of this method in other contexts and proposing its generalisation for multi-label classification problems.W większości zagadnień statystycznego modelowania istnieje problem niedostosowania zebranych danych do natury badanego zjawiska; co za tym idzie, analiza danych jest zazwyczaj poprzedzona zmianą ich surowej formy w optymalną dla dalej stosowanych metod.W rozprawie zajmuję się selekcją cech, jedną z klas zabiegów zmiany formy danych. Dotyczy ona systemów informacyjnych, czyli danych dających się przedstawić w formie tabelarycznej jako zbiór obiektów opisanych przez wartości zbioru atrybutów (nazywanych też cechami), oraz jest zdefiniowana jako proces wydzielenia w jakimś sensie optymalnego podzbioru atrybutów.Wyróżnia się dwie zasadnicze grupy metod selekcji cech: poszukujących możliwie małego podzbioru cech zapewniającego możliwie dobrą dokładność jakiejś metody modelowania (minimal optimal) oraz poszukujących podzbioru wszystkich cech, które niosą istotną informację i przez to są potencjalnie użyteczne dla jakiejś metody modelowania (all relevant). Tradycyjnie stosuje się prawie wyłącznie metody minimal optimal, sprowadzają się one bowiem w prosty sposób do znanego problemu optymalizacji i mają bezpośredni związek z efektywnością finalnego modelu. W rozprawie argumentuję jednak, że istnieje szeroka i istotna klasa problemów, w których tylko metody all relevant pozwalają uzyskać użyteczne wyniki, a metody minimal optimal są nie tylko nieefektywne ale często prowadzą do mylnych wniosków. Co więcej, wspomniana klasa pokrywa się też w dużej mierze ze zbiorem faktycznych problemów w których selekcja cech jest sama w sobie użytecznym wynikiem, nierzadko ważniejszym nawet od uzyskanego modelu. W szczególności chodzi tu o zbiory klasy p>>n, to jest takie w których liczba atrybutów w~systemie informacyjnym jest duża i znacząco przekracza liczbę obiektów; dane takie powszechnie występują chociażby w wysokoprzepustowych badaniach biologicznych, będących obecnie najpotężniejszym narzędziem analitycznym biologii molekularnej jak i fundamentem rodzącej się zindywidualizowanej medycyny.W zasadniczej części rozprawy prezentuję metodę Boruta, heurystyczną metodę selekcji zmiennych. Jest ona oparta o koncepcję rozszerzania systemu informacyjnego o cienie, z definicji nieistotne atrybuty wytworzone z oryginalnych cech przez losową permutację wartości, które są wykorzystywane jako odniesienie dla oceny istotności oryginalnych atrybutów w kontekście pełnej struktury analizowanych danych. Do oceny ważności cech metoda wykorzystuje algorytm lasu losowego (Random Forest), popularny klasyfikator zespołowy.Ponieważ wydajność obliczeniowa metody Boruta może być niewystarczająca dla pewnych istotnych zastosowań, w dalszej części rozprawy zajmuję się algorytmem paproci losowych, klasyfikatorem zespołowym zbliżonym strukturą do algorytmu lasu losowego, lecz oferującym znacząco lepszą wydajność obliczeniową. Proponuję uogólnienie tej metody, zdolne do treningu na generycznych systemach informacyjnych oraz do obliczania miary ważności atrybutów.Zarówno metodę Boruta jak i jej modyfikację wykorzystującą paprocie losowe poddaję w rozprawie wyczerpującej analizie na szeregu zbiorów klasy p>>n pochodzenia biologicznego. W szczególności rozważam tu stabilność selekcji; w tym celu formułuję nową metodę oceny opartą o podejście resamplingowe i samozgodność wyników. Wyniki przeprowadzonych eksperymentów potwierdzają empirycznie zasadność wspomnianych wcześniej problemów związanych z selekcją minimal optimal, jak również zasadność przyjętych heurystyk dla selekcji all relevant.Rozprawę dopełnia studium stosowalności algorytmu paproci losowych w problemie rozpoznawania instrumentów muzycznych w nagraniach, ilustrujące przydatność tej metody w innych kontekstach i proponujące jej uogólnienie na klasyfikację wieloetykietową

Quantifying the Effects of Correlated Covariates on Variable Importance Estimates from Random Forests

Recent advances in computing technology have lead to the development of algorithmic modeling techniques. These methods can be used to analyze data which are difficult to analyze using traditional statistical models. This study examined the effectiveness of variable importance estimates from the random forest algorithm in identifying the true predictor among a large number of candidate predictors. A simulation study was conducted using twenty different levels of association among the independent variables and seven different levels of association between the true predictor and the response. We conclude that the random forest method is an effective classification tool when the goals of a study are to produce an accurate classifier and to provide insight regarding the discriminative ability of individual predictor variables. These goals are common in gene expression analysis, therefore we apply the random forest method for the purpose of estimating variable importance on a microarray data set