Future Perspectives of Co-Simulation in the Smart Grid Domain

The recent attention towards research and development in cyber-physical energy systems has introduced the necessity of emerging multi-domain co-simulation tools. Different educational, research and industrial efforts have been set to tackle the co-simulation topic from several perspectives. The majority of previous works has addressed the standardization of models and interfaces for data exchange, automation of simulation, as well as improving performance and accuracy of co-simulation setups. Furthermore, the domains of interest so far have involved communication, control, markets and the environment in addition to physical energy systems. However, the current characteristics and state of co-simulation testbeds need to be re-evaluated for future research demands. These demands vary from new domains of interest, such as human and social behavior models, to new applications of co-simulation, such as holistic prognosis and system planning. This paper aims to formulate these research demands that can then be used as a road map and guideline for future development of co-simulation in cyber-physical energy systems

Cyber-physical energy systems modeling, test specification, and co-simulation based testing

The gradual deployment of intelligent and coordinated devices in the electrical power system needs careful investigation of the interactions between the various domains involved. Especially due to the coupling between ICT and power systems a holistic approach for testing and validating is required. Taking existing (quasi-) standardised smart grid system and test specification methods as a starting point, we are developing a holistic testing and validation approach that allows a very flexible way of assessing the system level aspects by various types of experiments (including virtual, real, and mixed lab settings). This paper describes the formal holistic test case specification method and applies it to a particular co-simulation experimental setup. The various building blocks of such a simulation (i.e., FMI, mosaik, domain-specific simulation federates) are covered in more detail. The presented method addresses most modeling and specification challenges in cyber-physical energy systems and is extensible for future additions such as uncertainty quantification

A review of probabilistic forecasting and prediction with machine learning

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and forecasting with machine learning models in academia and industry are becoming more frequent, related concepts and methods have not been formalized and structured under a holistic view of the entire field. Here, we review the topic of predictive uncertainty estimation with machine learning algorithms, as well as the related metrics (consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules) for assessing probabilistic predictions. The review covers a time period spanning from the introduction of early statistical (linear regression and time series models, based on Bayesian statistics or quantile regression) to recent machine learning algorithms (including generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, random forests, boosting and deep learning algorithms) that are more flexible by nature. The review of the progress in the field, expedites our understanding on how to develop new algorithms tailored to users' needs, since the latest advancements are based on some fundamental concepts applied to more complex algorithms. We conclude by classifying the material and discussing challenges that are becoming a hot topic of research.Comment: 83 pages, 5 figure

Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation

Acknowledgments We thank Reik V. Donner for inspiring suggestions that initialized the work presented herein. Jan H. Feldhoff is credited for providing us with the STARS simulation data and for his contributions to fruitful discussions. Comments by the anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged as they led to substantial improvements of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Compressed Machine Learning Models for the Uncertainty Quantification of Power Distribution Networks

Today’s spread of power distribution networks, with the installation of a significant number of renewable generators that depend on environmental conditions and on users’ consumption profiles, requires sophisticated models for monitoring the power flow, regulating the electricity market, and assessing the reliability of power grids. Such models cannot avoid taking into account the variability that is inherent to the electrical system and users’ behavior. In this paper, we present a solution for the generation of a compressed surrogate model of the electrical state of a realistic power network that is subject to a large number (on the order of a few hundreds) of uncertain parameters representing the power injected by distributed renewable sources or absorbed by users with different consumption profiles. Specifically, principal component analysis is combined with two state-of-the-art surrogate modeling strategies for uncertainty quantification, namely, the least-squares support vector machine, which is a nonparametric regression belonging to the class of machine learning methods, and the widely adopted polynomial chaos expansion. Such methods allow providing compact and efficient surrogate models capable of predicting the statistical behavior of all nodal voltages within the network as functions of its stochastic parameters. The IEEE 8500-node test feeder benchmark with 450 and 900 uncertain parameters is considered as a validation example in this study. The feasibility and strength of the proposed method are verified through a systematic assessment of its performance in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and convergence, based on reference simulations obtained via classical Monte Carlo analysis