142,884 research outputs found
Hybrid State Space-based Learning for Sequential Data Prediction with Joint Optimization
We investigate nonlinear prediction/regression in an online setting and
introduce a hybrid model that effectively mitigates, via a joint mechanism
through a state space formulation, the need for domain-specific feature
engineering issues of conventional nonlinear prediction models and achieves an
efficient mix of nonlinear and linear components. In particular, we use
recursive structures to extract features from raw sequential sequences and a
traditional linear time series model to deal with the intricacies of the
sequential data, e.g., seasonality, trends. The state-of-the-art ensemble or
hybrid models typically train the base models in a disjoint manner, which is
not only time consuming but also sub-optimal due to the separation of modeling
or independent training. In contrast, as the first time in the literature, we
jointly optimize an enhanced recurrent neural network (LSTM) for automatic
feature extraction from raw data and an ARMA-family time series model (SARIMAX)
for effectively addressing peculiarities associated with time series data. We
achieve this by introducing novel state space representations for the base
models, which are then combined to provide a full state space representation of
the hybrid or the ensemble. Hence, we are able to jointly optimize both models
in a single pass via particle filtering, for which we also provide the update
equations. The introduced architecture is generic so that one can use other
recurrent architectures, e.g., GRUs, traditional time series-specific models,
e.g., ETS or other optimization methods, e.g., EKF, UKF. Due to such novel
combination and joint optimization, we demonstrate significant improvements in
widely publicized real life competition datasets. We also openly share our code
for further research and replicability of our results.Comment: Submitted to the IEEE TNNLS journa
Enhancing surveyâbased investment forecasts
We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might affect the stability of their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictorsâ directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using the proposed stability variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors using the stability variables. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were as, or more, accurate than alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information: the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude
Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey
Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics
Particle physics models of inflation
Inflation models are compared with observation on the assumption that the
curvature perturbation is generated from the vacuum fluctuation of the inflaton
field. The focus is on single-field models with canonical kinetic terms,
classified as small- medium- and large-field according to the variation of the
inflaton field while cosmological scales leave the horizon. Small-field models
are constructed according to the usual paradigm for beyond Standard Model
physicsComment: Based on a talk given at the 22nd IAP Colloquium, ``Inflation +25'',
Paris, June 2006 Curve omitted from final Figur
Complexity in forecasting and predictive models
Te challenge of this special issue has been to know the
state of the problem related to forecasting modeling and
the creation of a model to forecast the future behavior
that supports decision making by supporting real-world applications.
Tis issue has been highlighted by the quality of its
research work on the critical importance of advanced analytical methods, such as neural networks, sof computing,
evolutionary algorithms, chaotic models, cellular automata,
agent-based models, and fnite mixture minimum squares
(FIMIX-PLS).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting
In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decisionâmaking process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetricâbased neuroâfuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for shortâterm electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over wellâestablished learningâbased models
Stochastic RUL calculation enhanced with TDNN-based IGBT failure modeling
Power electronics are widely used in the transport and energy sectors. Hence, the reliability of these power electronic components is critical to reducing the maintenance cost of these assets. It is vital that the health of these components is monitored for increasing the safety and availability of a system. The aim of this paper is to develop a prognostic technique for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of power electronic components. There is a need for an efficient prognostic algorithm that is embeddable and able to support on-board real-time decision-making. A time delay neural network (TDNN) is used in the development of failure modes for an insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT). Initially, the time delay neural network is constructed from training IGBTs' ageing samples. A stochastic process is performed for the estimation results to compute the probability of the health state during the degradation process. The proposed TDNN fusion with a statistical approach benefits the probability distribution function by improving the accuracy of the results of the TDDN in RUL prediction. The RUL (i.e., mean and confidence bounds) is then calculated from the simulation of the estimated degradation states. The prognostic results are evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and relative accuracy (RA) prognostic evaluation metrics
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