Predicting the energy output of wind farms based on weather data: important variables and their correlation

Pre-print available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.1922Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather conditions present at its site. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy suppliers can coordinate the collaborative production of different energy sources more efficiently to avoid costly overproduction. In this paper, we take a computer science perspective on energy prediction based on weather data and analyze the important parameters as well as their correlation on the energy output. To deal with the interaction of the different parameters, we use symbolic regression based on the genetic programming tool DataModeler. Our studies are carried out on publicly available weather and energy data for a wind farm in Australia. We report on the correlation of the different variables for the energy output. The model obtained for energy prediction gives a very reliable prediction of the energy output for newly supplied weather data. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.Ekaterina Vladislavleva, Tobias Friedrich, Frank Neumann, Markus Wagne

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Online Tool Condition Monitoring Based on Parsimonious Ensemble+

Accurate diagnosis of tool wear in metal turning process remains an open challenge for both scientists and industrial practitioners because of inhomogeneities in workpiece material, nonstationary machining settings to suit production requirements, and nonlinear relations between measured variables and tool wear. Common methodologies for tool condition monitoring still rely on batch approaches which cannot cope with a fast sampling rate of metal cutting process. Furthermore they require a retraining process to be completed from scratch when dealing with a new set of machining parameters. This paper presents an online tool condition monitoring approach based on Parsimonious Ensemble+, pENsemble+. The unique feature of pENsemble+ lies in its highly flexible principle where both ensemble structure and base-classifier structure can automatically grow and shrink on the fly based on the characteristics of data streams. Moreover, the online feature selection scenario is integrated to actively sample relevant input attributes. The paper presents advancement of a newly developed ensemble learning algorithm, pENsemble+, where online active learning scenario is incorporated to reduce operator labelling effort. The ensemble merging scenario is proposed which allows reduction of ensemble complexity while retaining its diversity. Experimental studies utilising real-world manufacturing data streams and comparisons with well known algorithms were carried out. Furthermore, the efficacy of pENsemble was examined using benchmark concept drift data streams. It has been found that pENsemble+ incurs low structural complexity and results in a significant reduction of operator labelling effort.Comment: this paper has been published by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic

Unsupervised ensemble of experts (EoE) framework for automatic binarization of document images

In recent years, a large number of binarization methods have been developed, with varying performance generalization and strength against different benchmarks. In this work, to leverage on these methods, an ensemble of experts (EoE) framework is introduced, to efficiently combine the outputs of various methods. The proposed framework offers a new selection process of the binarization methods, which are actually the experts in the ensemble, by introducing three concepts: confidentness, endorsement and schools of experts. The framework, which is highly objective, is built based on two general principles: (i) consolidation of saturated opinions and (ii) identification of schools of experts. After building the endorsement graph of the ensemble for an input document image based on the confidentness of the experts, the saturated opinions are consolidated, and then the schools of experts are identified by thresholding the consolidated endorsement graph. A variation of the framework, in which no selection is made, is also introduced that combines the outputs of all experts using endorsement-dependent weights. The EoE framework is evaluated on the set of participating methods in the H-DIBCO'12 contest and also on an ensemble generated from various instances of grid-based Sauvola method with promising performance.Comment: 6-page version, Accepted to be presented in ICDAR'1

Ensemble Committees for Stock Return Classification and Prediction

This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred portfolio allocation on the basis of a learned model. Stocks are characterized by time series data sets consisting of technical variables that reflect market conditions in a previous time interval, which are utilized produce binary classification decisions in subsequent intervals. The learned model is constructed as a committee of random forest classifiers, a non-linear support vector machine classifier, a relevance vector machine classifier, and a constituent ensemble of k-nearest neighbors classifiers. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) is used to explore the ensemble model's efficacy within the context of various fields of investment including Energy, Materials, Financials, and Information Technology. Data from 2006 to 2012, inclusive, are considered, which are chosen for providing a range of market circumstances for evaluating the model. The model is observed to achieve an accuracy of approximately 70% when predicting stock price returns three months in advance.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, Neukom Institute Computational Undergraduate Research prize - second plac

Solar Magnetic Tracking. IV. The Death of Magnetic Features

The removal of magnetic flux from the quiet-sun photosphere is important for maintaining the statistical steady-state of the magnetic field there, for determining the magnetic flux budget of the Sun, and for estimating the rate of energy injected into the upper solar atmosphere. Magnetic feature death is a measurable proxy for the removal of detectable flux. We used the SWAMIS feature tracking code to understand how nearly 20000 detected magnetic features die in an hour-long sequence of Hinode/SOT/NFI magnetograms of a region of quiet Sun. Of the feature deaths that remove visible magnetic flux from the photosphere, the vast majority do so by a process that merely disperses the previously-detected flux so that it is too small and too weak to be detected. The behavior of the ensemble average of these dispersals is not consistent with a model of simple planar diffusion, suggesting that the dispersal is constrained by the evolving photospheric velocity field. We introduce the concept of the partial lifetime of magnetic features, and show that the partial lifetime due to Cancellation of magnetic flux, 22 h, is 3 times slower than previous measurements of the flux turnover time. This indicates that prior feature-based estimates of the flux replacement time may be too short, in contrast with the tendency for this quantity to decrease as resolution and instrumentation have improved. This suggests that dispersal of flux to smaller scales is more important for the replacement of magnetic fields in the quiet Sun than observed bipolar cancellation. We conclude that processes on spatial scales smaller than those visible to Hinode dominate the processes of flux emergence and cancellation, and therefore also the quantity of magnetic flux that threads the photosphere.Comment: Accepted by Ap