Lessons Learned and Next Steps in Energy Efficiency Measurement and Attribution: Energy Savings, Net to Gross, Non-Energy Benefits, and Persistence of Energy Efficiency Behavior

This white paper examines four topics addressing evaluation, measurement, and attribution of direct and indirect effects to energy efficiency and behavioral programs: Estimates of program savings (gross); Net savings derivation through free ridership / net to gross analyses; Indirect non-energy benefits / impacts (e.g., comfort, convenience, emissions, jobs); and, Persistence of savings

Measuring the Contribution to the Economy of Investments in Renewable Energy: Estimates of Future Consumer Gains

In this paper we develop a cost index–based measure of the expected consumer welfare gains from innovation in electricity generation technologies. To illustrate our approach, we estimate how much better off consumers would be from 2000 to 2020 as renewable energy technologies continue to be improved and gradually adopted, compared with a counterfactual scenario that allows for continual improvement of conventional technology. We proceed from the position that the role and prospects of renewable energy are best assessed within a market setting that considers competing energy technologies and sources. We evaluate five renewable energy technologies used to generate electricity: solar photovoltaics, solar thermal, geothermal, wind, and biomass. For each, we assume an accelerated adoption rate due to technological advances, and we evaluate the benefits against a baseline technology, combined-cycle gas turbine, which experts cite as the conventional technology most likely to be installed as incremental capacity over the next decade. We evaluate benefits against both the conventional combined-cycle gas turbine prevalent at this time and a more advanced combined-cycle gas turbine expected to be employed during the coming decade. We estimate the model for two geographic regions of the nation for which renewable energy is, or can be expected to be, a somewhat sizable portion of the electricity market—California and the north central United States. In present-value terms we find that median consumer welfare gains over 20 years vary markedly among the renewable technologies, ranging from large negative values (welfare losses) to large positive values (welfare gains). The effect of uncertainty can lead to estimates that are 20% to 40% larger or smaller than median predicted values. Our results suggest that portfolios that give equal weight to the use of each generation technology are likely to lead to consumer losses in our regions, regardless of the role of the externalities that we consider. However, when the portfolio is more heavily weighted toward certain renewables, consumer gains can be positive.energy economics, technical change

Recent developments in the application of risk analysis to waste technologies.

The European waste sector is undergoing a period of unprecedented change driven by business consolidation, new legislation and heightened public and government scrutiny. One feature is the transition of the sector towards a process industry with increased pre-treatment of wastes prior to the disposal of residues and the co-location of technologies at single sites, often also for resource recovery and residuals management. Waste technologies such as in-vessel composting, the thermal treatment of clinical waste, the stabilisation of hazardous wastes, biomass gasification, sludge combustion and the use of wastes as fuel, present operators and regulators with new challenges as to their safe and environmentally responsible operation. A second feature of recent change is an increased regulatory emphasis on public and ecosystem health and the need for assessments of risk to and from waste installations. Public confidence in waste management, secured in part through enforcement of the planning and permitting regimes and sound operational performance, is central to establishing the infrastructure of new waste technologies. Well-informed risk management plays a critical role. We discuss recent developments in risk analysis within the sector and the future needs of risk analysis that are required to respond to the new waste and resource management agenda

Pathways to climate adapted and healthy low income housing

AbstractThis report presents the findings from the “Pathways to Climate Adapted and Healthy Low Income Housing” project undertaken by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship in partnership with two organisations responsible for providing social housing in Australia.The project was based on the premise that interactions between people, housing, and neighbourhood are dynamic and best viewed as a complex, dynamic social-ecological system. Using social housing as a case study, the objectives of the project were to:Model vulnerability of housing and tenants to selected climate change impacts;Identify/evaluate engineering, behavioural and institutional adaptation options;Scope co-benefits of climate adaptation for human health and well-being; andDevelop house typologies and climate analogues for national generalisations.This project was developed with the rationale that a multi-level focus on the cross-scale interactions between housing, residents, neighbourhood, and regional climate was vital for understanding the nature of climate change vulnerability and options for adaptation. The climate change hazards that were explored were increasing temperatures and more frequent and severe heatwaves in the context of heat-related health risks to housing occupants, and changes in radiation, humidity, and wind, in relation to material durability and service life of housing components and the implications for maintenance.Please cite as:Barnett G, Beaty RM, Chen D, McFallan S, Meyers J, Nguyen M, Ren Z, Spinks A, and Wang, X 2013 Pathways to climate adapted and healthy low income housing, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 110.This report presents the findings from the \u27Pathways to Climate Adapted and Healthy Low Income Housing\u27 project undertaken by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship in partnership with two organisations responsible for providing social housing in Australia.The project was based on the premise that interactions between people, housing, and neighbourhood are dynamic and best viewed as a complex, dynamic social-ecological system. Using social housing as a case study, the objectives of the project were to:Model vulnerability of housing and tenants to selected climate change impacts;Identify/evaluate engineering, behavioural and institutional adaptation options;Scope co-benefits of climate adaptation for human health and well-being; andDevelop house typologies and climate analogues for national generalisations.This project was developed with the rationale that a multi-level focus on the cross-scale interactions between housing, residents, neighbourhood, and regional climate was vital for understanding the nature of climate change vulnerability and options for adaptation. The climate change hazards that were explored were increasing temperatures and more frequent and severe heatwaves in the context of heat-related health risks to housing occupants, and changes in radiation, humidity, and wind, in relation to material durability and service life of housing components and the implications for maintenance

Enabling onshore CO2 storage in Europe: fostering international cooperation around pilot and test sites

To meet the ambitious EC target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) needs to move rapidly towards full scale implementation with geological storage solutions both on and offshore. Onshore storage offers increased flexibility and reduced infrastructure and monitoring costs. Enabling onshore storage will support management of decarbonisation strategies at territory level while enhancing security of energy supply and local economic activities, and securing jobs across Europe. However, successful onshore storage also requires overcoming some unique technical and societal challenges. ENOS will provide crucial advances to help foster onshore CO2 storage across Europe through: 1. Developing, testing and demonstrating in the field, under "real-life conditions", key technologies specifically adapted to onshore storage. 2. Contributing to the creation of a favourable environment for onshore storage across Europe. The ENOS site portfolio will provide a great opportunity for demonstration of technologies for safe and environmentally sound storage at relevant scale. Best practices will be developed using experience gained from the field experiments with the participation of local stakeholders and the lay public. This will produce improved integrated research outcomes and increase stakeholder understanding and confidence in CO2 storage. In this improved framework, ENOS will catalyse new onshore pilot and demonstration projects in new locations and geological settings across Europe, taking into account the site-specific and local socio-economic context. By developing technologies from TRL4/5 to TRL6 across the storage lifecycle, feeding the resultant knowledge and experience into training and education and cooperating at the pan-European and global level, ENOS will have a decisive impact on innovation and build the confidence needed for enabling onshore CO2 storage in Europe. ENOS is initiating strong international collaboration between European researchers and their counterparts from the USA, Canada, South Korea, Australia and South Africa for sharing experience worldwide based on real-life onshore pilots and field experiments. Fostering experience-sharing and research alignment between existing sites is key to maximise the investment made at individual sites and to support the efficient large scale deployment of CCS. ENOS is striving to promote collaboration between sites in the world through a programme of site twinning, focus groups centered around operative issues and the creation of a leakage simulation alliance

ECONOMIC Potential of Renewable Energy in Vietnam's Power Sector

A bottom-up Integrated Resource Planning model is used to examine the economic potential of renewable energy in Vietnam’s power sector. In a baseline scenario without renewables, coal provides 44% of electricity generated from 2010 to 2030. The use of renewables could reduce that figure to 39%, as well as decrease the sector’s cumulative emission of CO2 by 8%, SO2 by 3%, and NOx by 4%. In addition,renewables could avoid installing 4.4GW in fossil fuel generating capacity, conserve domestic coal,decrease coal and gases imports, improving energy independence and security. Wind could become cost-competitive assuming high but plausible on fossil fuel prices, if the cost of the technology falls to 900 US$/kW

A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TOURISM

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists’ expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.Climate Change, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Tourism

Determining Utility System Value of Demand Flexibility From Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings

This report focuses on ways current methods and practices that establish the value to electric utility systems of distributed energy resource (DER) investments can be enhanced to determine the value of demand flexibility in grid-interactive efficient buildings that can provide grid services. The report introduces key valuation concepts that are applicable to demand flexibility that these buildings can provide and links to other documents that describe these concepts and their implementation in more detail.The scope of this report is limited to the valuation of economic benefits to the utility system. These are the foundational values on which other benefits (and costs) can be built. Establishing the economic value to the grid of demand flexibility provides the information needed to design programs, market rules, and rates that align the economic interest of utility customers with building owners and occupants. By nature, DERs directly impact customers and provide societal benefits external to the utility system. Jurisdictions can use utility system benefits and costs as the foundation of their economic analysis but align their primary cost-effectiveness metric with all applicable policy objectives, which may include customer and societal (non-utility system) impacts.This report suggests enhancements to current methods and practices that state and local policymakers, public utility commissions, state energy offices, utilities, state utility consumer representatives, and other stakeholders might support. These enhancements can improve the consistency and robustness of economic valuation of demand flexibility for grid services. The report concludes with a discussion of considerations for prioritizing implementation of these improvements

Drivers of Microbial Risk for Direct Potable Reuse and de Facto Reuse Treatment Schemes: The Impacts of Source Water Quality and Blending.

Although reclaimed water for potable applications has many potential benefits, it poses concerns for chemical and microbial risks to consumers. We present a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) Monte Carlo framework to compare a de facto water reuse scenario (treated wastewater-impacted surface water) with four hypothetical Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) scenarios for Norovirus, Cryptosporidium, and Salmonella. Consumer microbial risks of surface source water quality (impacted by 0-100% treated wastewater effluent) were assessed. Additionally, we assessed risks for different blending ratios (0-100% surface water blended into advanced-treated DPR water) when source surface water consisted of 50% wastewater effluent. De facto reuse risks exceeded the yearly 10-4 infections risk benchmark while all modeled DPR risks were significantly lower. Contamination with 1% or more wastewater effluent in the source water, and blending 1% or more wastewater-impacted surface water into the advanced-treated DPR water drove the risk closer to the 10-4 benchmark. We demonstrate that de facto reuse by itself, or as an input into DPR, drives microbial risks more so than the advanced-treated DPR water. When applied using location-specific inputs, this framework can contribute to project design and public awareness campaigns to build legitimacy for DPR

Insurer Climate Risk Disclosure Survey: 2012 Findings and Recommendations

2012 was the warmest year on record in the Lower 48 states and the second most extreme weather year in U.S. history. This is not a coincidence. Extreme weather -- stronger, more damaging storms, unprecedented drought and heat in some regions and unprecedented rainfall and flooding in others -- are the predictable consequences of rising global temperatures.Eleven extreme weather events each caused at least a billion dollars in losses last year in the United States. A single event, Hurricane Sandy, caused more than $50 billion in economic losses. Insurance companies are on the hook for tens of billions of dollars in claims as a result of Sandy and other severe weather events. And American taxpayers are on the hook for tens of billions of dollars themselves, thanks to losses sustained by the National Flood Insurance Program as well as disaster relief spendingThis raises a fundamental question: Is the insurance industry prepared? Have insurers analyzed and measured their climate-related risk? Are they planning for life in a warmer world? These should be essential questions for insurance regulators in all 50 states to be asking, and some are