Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Genetic fuzzy rule-based system using MOGUL learning methodology for energy consumption forecasting

This paper presents the application of a Methodology to Obtain Genetic fuzzy rule-based systems Under the iterative rule Learning approach (MOGUL) to forecast energy consumption. Historical data referring to the energy consumption gathered from three groups, namely lights, HVAC and electrical socket, are used to train the proposed approach and achieve forecasting results for the future. The performance of the proposed method is compared to that of previous approaches, namely Hybrid Neural Fuzzy Interface System (HyFIS) and Wang and Mendel’s Fuzzy Rule Learning Method (WM). Results show that the proposed methodology achieved smaller forecasting errors for the following hours, with a smaller standard deviation. Thus, the proposed approach is able to achieve more reliable results than the other state of the art methodologie

Day ahead electricity consumption forecasting with MOGUL learning model

Due to amount of today's electricity consumption, one of the most important tasks of the energy operators is to be able to predict the consumption and be ready to control the energy generation based on the estimated consumption for the future. In this way, having a trustable forecast of the electricity consumption is essential to control the consumption and maintain the balance in energy distribution networks. This study presents a day ahead forecasting approach based on a genetic fuzzy system for fuzzy rule learning based on the MOGUL methodology (GFS.FR.MOGUL). The proposed approach is used to forecast the electricity consumption of an office building in the following 24 hours. The goal of this work is to present a more reliable profile of the electricity consumption comparing to previous works. Therefore, this paper also includes the comparison of the results of day ahead forecasting using GFS.FR.MOGUL method against other fuzzy rule based methods, as well as a set of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) approaches. This comparison shows that using the GFS.FR.MOGUL forecasting method for day-ahead electricity consumption forecasting is able to estimate a more trustable value than the other approaches.This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 641794 (project DREAM-GO) and grant agreement No 703689 (project ADAPT); and from FEDER Funds through COMPETE program and from National Funds through FCT under the project UID/EEA/00760/2013info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Energy consumption forecasting using neuro-fuzzy inference systems: Thales TRT building case study

Electrical energy consumption forecasting is, nowadays, essential in order to deal with the new paradigm of consumers' active participation in the power and energy system. The uncertainty related to the variability of consumption is associated to numerous factors, such as consumers' habits, the environmental temperature, luminosity, etc. Current forecasting methods are not suitable to deal with such a combination of input variables, with often highly variable influence on the outcomes of the actual energy consumption. This paper presents a study on the application of five different methods based on fuzzy rule-based systems. This type of method is able to find associations between the distinct input variables, thus creating rules that support and improve the actual forecasting process. A case study is presented, showing the results of applying these five methods to predict the consumption of a real building: the Thales TRT building, in France.This work has been developed under the EUREKA - ITEA2 Project FUSE-IT (ITEA-13023), Project GREEDI (ANI|P2020 17822), and has received funding from FEDER Funds through COMPETE program and from National Funds through FCT under the project UID/EEA/00760/2013info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio