A Review on Deep Learning Techniques for Video Prediction

The ability to predict, anticipate and reason about future outcomes is a key component of intelligent decision-making systems. In light of the success of deep learning in computer vision, deep-learning-based video prediction emerged as a promising research direction. Defined as a self-supervised learning task, video prediction represents a suitable framework for representation learning, as it demonstrated potential capabilities for extracting meaningful representations of the underlying patterns in natural videos. Motivated by the increasing interest in this task, we provide a review on the deep learning methods for prediction in video sequences. We firstly define the video prediction fundamentals, as well as mandatory background concepts and the most used datasets. Next, we carefully analyze existing video prediction models organized according to a proposed taxonomy, highlighting their contributions and their significance in the field. The summary of the datasets and methods is accompanied with experimental results that facilitate the assessment of the state of the art on a quantitative basis. The paper is summarized by drawing some general conclusions, identifying open research challenges and by pointing out future research directions.This work has been funded by the Spanish Government PID2019-104818RB-I00 grant for the MoDeaAS project, supported with Feder funds. This work has also been supported by two Spanish national grants for PhD studies, FPU17/00166, and ACIF/2018/197 respectively

Neural Mechanisms and Psychology of Psychedelic Ego Dissolution

Neuroimaging studies of psychedelics have advanced our understanding of hierarchical brain organization and the mechanisms underlying their subjective and therapeutic effects. The primary mechanism of action of classic psychedelics is binding to serotonergic 5-HT2A receptors. Agonist activity at these receptors leads to neuromodulatory changes in synaptic efficacy that can have a profound effect on hierarchical message-passing in the brain. Here, we review the cognitive and neuroimaging evidence for the effects of psychedelics: in particular, their influence on selfhood and subject-object boundaries—known as ego dissolution—surmised to underwrite their subjective and therapeutic effects. Agonism of 5-HT2A recep-tors, located at the apex of the cortical hierarchy, may have a particularly powerful effect on sentience and consciousness. These effects can endure well after the pharmacological half-life, suggesting that psychedelics may have effects on neural plasticity that may play a role in their therapeutic efficacy. Psychologi-cally, this may be accompanied by a disarming of ego resistance that increases the repertoire of perceptual hypotheses and affords alternate pathways for thought and behavior, including those that undergird selfhood. We consider the interaction between serotonergic neuromodulation and sentience through the lens of hierarchical predictive coding, which speaks to the value of psychedelics in understanding how we make sense of the world and specific predictions about effective connectivity in cortical hierarchies that can be tested using functional neuroimaging. Significance Statement——Classic psychedelics bind to serotonergic 5-HT2A receptors. Their agonist activity at these receptors leads to neuromodulatory changes in synaptic efficacy, resulting in a profound effect on information processing in the brain. Here, we synthesize an abundance of brain imaging research with pharmacological and psychological interpretations informed by the framework of predictive coding. Moreover, predictive coding is suggested to offer more sophisticated interpretations of neuroimaging find-ings by bridging the role between the 5-HT2A receptors and large-scale brain networks

Stochastic Occupancy Grid Map Prediction in Dynamic Scenes

This paper presents two variations of a novel stochastic prediction algorithm that enables mobile robots to accurately and robustly predict the future state of complex dynamic scenes. The proposed algorithm uses a variational autoencoder to predict a range of possible future states of the environment. The algorithm takes full advantage of the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene to improve prediction accuracy. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to achieve more accurate and robust prediction performance than other prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a predictive uncertainty-aware planner is proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed predictor in simulation and real-world navigation experiments. Implementations are open source at https://github.com/TempleRAIL/SOGMP.Comment: Accepted by 7th Annual Conference on Robot Learning (CoRL), 202

Predictive World Models from Real-World Partial Observations

Cognitive scientists believe adaptable intelligent agents like humans perform reasoning through learned causal mental simulations of agents and environments. The problem of learning such simulations is called predictive world modeling. Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) agents leveraging world models have achieved SOTA performance in game environments. However, understanding how to apply the world modeling approach in complex real-world environments relevant to mobile robots remains an open question. In this paper, we present a framework for learning a probabilistic predictive world model for real-world road environments. We implement the model using a hierarchical VAE (HVAE) capable of predicting a diverse set of fully observed plausible worlds from accumulated sensor observations. While prior HVAE methods require complete states as ground truth for learning, we present a novel sequential training method to allow HVAEs to learn to predict complete states from partially observed states only. We experimentally demonstrate accurate spatial structure prediction of deterministic regions achieving 96.21 IoU, and close the gap to perfect prediction by 62% for stochastic regions using the best prediction. By extending HVAEs to cases where complete ground truth states do not exist, we facilitate continual learning of spatial prediction as a step towards realizing explainable and comprehensive predictive world models for real-world mobile robotics applications. Code is available at https://github.com/robin-karlsson0/predictive-world-models.Comment: Accepted for IEEE MOST 202

An enactive approach to perceptual augmentation in mobility

Event predictions are an important constituent of situation awareness, which is a key objective for many applications in human-machine interaction, in particular in driver assistance. This work focuses on facilitating event predictions in dynamic environments. Its primary contributions are 1) the theoretical development of an approach for enabling people to expand their sampling and understanding of spatiotemporal information, 2) the introduction of exemplary systems that are guided by this approach, 3) the empirical investigation of effects functional prototypes of these systems have on human behavior and safety in a range of simulated road traffic scenarios, and 4) a connection of the investigated approach to work on cooperative human-machine systems. More specific contents of this work are summarized as follows: The first part introduces several challenges for the formation of situation awareness as a requirement for safe traffic participation. It reviews existing work on these challenges in the domain of driver assistance, resulting in an identification of the need to better inform drivers about dynamically changing aspects of a scene, including event probabilities, spatial and temporal distances, as well as a suggestion to expand the scope of assistance systems to start informing drivers about relevant scene elements at an early stage. Novel forms of assistance can be guided by different fundamental approaches that target either replacement, distribution, or augmentation of driver competencies. A subsequent differentiation of these approaches concludes that an augmentation-guided paradigm, characterized by an integration of machine capabilities into human feedback loops, can be advantageous for tasks that rely on active user engagement, the preservation of awareness and competence, and the minimization of complexity in human- machine interaction. Consequently, findings and theories about human sensorimotor processes are connected to develop an enactive approach that is consistent with an augmentation perspective on human-machine interaction. The approach is characterized by enabling drivers to exercise new sensorimotor processes through which safety-relevant spatiotemporal information may be sampled. In the second part of this work, a concept and functional prototype for augmenting the perception of traffic dynamics is introduced as a first example for applying principles of this enactive approach. As a loose expression of functional biomimicry, the prototype utilizes a tactile inter- face that communicates temporal distances to potential hazards continuously through stimulus intensity. In a driving simulator study, participants quickly gained an intuitive understanding of the assistance without instructions and demonstrated higher driving safety in safety-critical highway scenarios. But this study also raised new questions such as whether benefits are due to a continuous time-intensity encoding and whether utility generalizes to intersection scenarios or highway driving with low criticality events. Effects of an expanded assistance prototype with lane-independent risk assessment and an option for binary signaling were thus investigated in a separate driving simulator study. Subjective responses confirmed quick signal understanding and a perception of spatial and temporal stimulus characteristics. Surprisingly, even for a binary assistance variant with a constant intensity level, participants reported perceiving a danger-dependent variation in stimulus intensity. They further felt supported by the system in the driving task, especially in difficult situations. But in contrast to the first study, this support was not expressed by changes in driving safety, suggesting that perceptual demands of the low criticality scenarios could be satisfied by existing driver capabilities. But what happens if such basic capabilities are impaired, e.g., due to poor visibility conditions or other situations that introduce perceptual uncertainty? In a third driving simulator study, the driver assistance was employed specifically in such ambiguous situations and produced substantial safety advantages over unassisted driving. Additionally, an assistance variant that adds an encoding of spatial uncertainty was investigated in these scenarios. Participants had no difficulties to understand and utilize this added signal dimension to improve safety. Despite being inherently less informative than spatially precise signals, users rated uncertainty-encoding signals as equally useful and satisfying. This appreciation for transparency of variable assistance reliability is a promising indicator for the feasibility of an adaptive trust calibration in human-machine interaction and marks one step towards a closer integration of driver and vehicle capabilities. A complementary step on the driver side would be to increase transparency about the driver’s mental states and thus allow for mutual adaptation. The final part of this work discusses how such prerequisites of cooperation may be achieved by monitoring mental state correlates observable in human behavior, especially in eye movements. Furthermore, the outlook for an addition of cooperative features also raises new questions about the bounds of identity as well as practical consequences of human-machine systems in which co-adapting agents may exercise sensorimotor processes through one another.Die Vorhersage von Ereignissen ist ein Bestandteil des Situationsbewusstseins, dessen Unterstützung ein wesentliches Ziel diverser Anwendungen im Bereich Mensch-Maschine Interaktion ist, insbesondere in der Fahrerassistenz. Diese Arbeit zeigt Möglichkeiten auf, Menschen bei Vorhersagen in dynamischen Situationen im Straßenverkehr zu unterstützen. Zentrale Beiträge der Arbeit sind 1) eine theoretische Auseinandersetzung mit der Aufgabe, die menschliche Wahrnehmung und das Verständnis von raum-zeitlichen Informationen im Straßenverkehr zu erweitern, 2) die Einführung beispielhafter Systeme, die aus dieser Betrachtung hervorgehen, 3) die empirische Untersuchung der Auswirkungen dieser Systeme auf das Nutzerverhalten und die Fahrsicherheit in simulierten Verkehrssituationen und 4) die Verknüpfung der untersuchten Ansätze mit Arbeiten an kooperativen Mensch-Maschine Systemen. Die Arbeit ist in drei Teile gegliedert: Der erste Teil stellt einige Herausforderungen bei der Bildung von Situationsbewusstsein vor, welches für die sichere Teilnahme am Straßenverkehr notwendig ist. Aus einem Vergleich dieses Überblicks mit früheren Arbeiten zeigt sich, dass eine Notwendigkeit besteht, Fahrer besser über dynamische Aspekte von Fahrsituationen zu informieren. Dies umfasst unter anderem Ereigniswahrscheinlichkeiten, räumliche und zeitliche Distanzen, sowie eine frühere Signalisierung relevanter Elemente in der Umgebung. Neue Formen der Assistenz können sich an verschiedenen grundlegenden Ansätzen der Mensch-Maschine Interaktion orientieren, die entweder auf einen Ersatz, eine Verteilung oder eine Erweiterung von Fahrerkompetenzen abzielen. Die Differenzierung dieser Ansätze legt den Schluss nahe, dass ein von Kompetenzerweiterung geleiteter Ansatz für die Bewältigung jener Aufgaben von Vorteil ist, bei denen aktiver Nutzereinsatz, die Erhaltung bestehender Kompetenzen und Situationsbewusstsein gefordert sind. Im Anschluss werden Erkenntnisse und Theorien über menschliche sensomotorische Prozesse verknüpft, um einen enaktiven Ansatz der Mensch-Maschine Interaktion zu entwickeln, der einer erweiterungsgeleiteten Perspektive Rechnung trägt. Dieser Ansatz soll es Fahrern ermöglichen, sicherheitsrelevante raum-zeitliche Informationen über neue sensomotorische Prozesse zu erfassen. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird ein Konzept und funktioneller Prototyp zur Erweiterung der Wahrnehmung von Verkehrsdynamik als ein erstes Beispiel zur Anwendung der Prinzipien dieses enaktiven Ansatzes vorgestellt. Dieser Prototyp nutzt vibrotaktile Aktuatoren zur Kommunikation von Richtungen und zeitlichen Distanzen zu möglichen Gefahrenquellen über die Aktuatorposition und -intensität. Teilnehmer einer Fahrsimulationsstudie waren in der Lage, in kurzer Zeit ein intuitives Verständnis dieser Assistenz zu entwickeln, ohne vorher über die Funktionalität unterrichtet worden zu sein. Sie zeigten zudem ein erhöhtes Maß an Fahrsicherheit in kritischen Verkehrssituationen. Doch diese Studie wirft auch neue Fragen auf, beispielsweise, ob der Sicherheitsgewinn auf kontinuierliche Distanzkodierung zurückzuführen ist und ob ein Nutzen auch in weiteren Szenarien vorliegen würde, etwa bei Kreuzungen und weniger kritischem longitudinalen Verkehr. Um diesen Fragen nachzugehen, wurden Effekte eines erweiterten Prototypen mit spurunabhängiger Kollisionsprädiktion, sowie einer Option zur binären Kommunikation möglicher Kollisionsrichtungen in einer weiteren Fahrsimulatorstudie untersucht. Auch in dieser Studie bestätigen die subjektiven Bewertungen ein schnelles Verständnis der Signale und eine Wahrnehmung räumlicher und zeitlicher Signalkomponenten. Überraschenderweise berichteten Teilnehmer größtenteils auch nach der Nutzung einer binären Assistenzvariante, dass sie eine gefahrabhängige Variation in der Intensität von taktilen Stimuli wahrgenommen hätten. Die Teilnehmer fühlten sich mit beiden Varianten in der Fahraufgabe unterstützt, besonders in Situationen, die von ihnen als kritisch eingeschätzt wurden. Im Gegensatz zur ersten Studie hat sich diese gefühlte Unterstützung nur geringfügig in einer messbaren Sicherheitsveränderung widergespiegelt. Dieses Ergebnis deutet darauf hin, dass die Wahrnehmungsanforderungen der Szenarien mit geringer Kritikalität mit den vorhandenen Fahrerkapazitäten erfüllt werden konnten. Doch was passiert, wenn diese Fähigkeiten eingeschränkt werden, beispielsweise durch schlechte Sichtbedingungen oder Situationen mit erhöhter Ambiguität? In einer dritten Fahrsimulatorstudie wurde das Assistenzsystem in speziell solchen Situationen eingesetzt, was zu substantiellen Sicherheitsvorteilen gegenüber unassistiertem Fahren geführt hat. Zusätzlich zu der vorher eingeführten Form wurde eine neue Variante des Prototyps untersucht, welche räumliche Unsicherheiten der Fahrzeugwahrnehmung in taktilen Signalen kodiert. Studienteilnehmer hatten keine Schwierigkeiten, diese zusätzliche Signaldimension zu verstehen und die Information zur Verbesserung der Fahrsicherheit zu nutzen. Obwohl sie inherent weniger informativ sind als räumlich präzise Signale, bewerteten die Teilnehmer die Signale, die die Unsicherheit übermitteln, als ebenso nützlich und zufriedenstellend. Solch eine Wertschätzung für die Transparenz variabler Informationsreliabilität ist ein vielversprechendes Indiz für die Möglichkeit einer adaptiven Vertrauenskalibrierung in der Mensch-Maschine Interaktion. Dies ist ein Schritt hin zur einer engeren Integration der Fähigkeiten von Fahrer und Fahrzeug. Ein komplementärer Schritt wäre eine Erweiterung der Transparenz mentaler Zustände des Fahrers, wodurch eine wechselseitige Anpassung von Mensch und Maschine möglich wäre. Der letzte Teil dieser Arbeit diskutiert, wie diese Transparenz und weitere Voraussetzungen von Mensch-Maschine Kooperation erfüllt werden könnten, indem etwa Korrelate mentaler Zustände, insbesondere über das Blickverhalten, überwacht werden. Des Weiteren ergeben sich mit Blick auf zusätzliche kooperative Fähigkeiten neue Fragen über die Definition von Identität, sowie über die praktischen Konsequenzen von Mensch-Maschine Systemen, in denen ko-adaptive Agenten sensomotorische Prozesse vermittels einander ausüben können

Sensorimotor Differences in Autism Spectrum Disorder: An evaluation of potential mechanisms.

This thesis examined the aetiology of sensorimotor impairments in Autism Spectrum Disorder: a neurodevelopmental condition that affects an individual’s socio-behavioural preferences, personal independence, and quality of life. Issues relating to clumsiness and movement coordination are common features of autism that contribute to wide-ranging daily living difficulties. However, these characteristics are relatively understudied and there is an absence of evidence-based practical interventions. To pave the way for new, scientifically-focused programmes, a series of studies investigated the mechanistic underpinnings of sensorimotor differences in autism. Following a targeted review of previous research, study one explored links between autistic-like traits and numerous conceptually-significant movement control functions. Eye-tracking analyses were integrated with force transducers and motion capture technology to examine how participants interacted with uncertain lifting objects. Upon identifying a link between autistic-like traits and context-sensitive predictive action control, study two replicated these procedures with a sample of clinically-diagnosed participants. Results illustrated that autistic people are able to use predictions to guide object interactions, but that uncertainty-related adjustments in sensorimotor integration are atypical. Such findings were advanced within a novel virtual-reality paradigm in study three, which systematically manipulated environmental uncertainty during naturalistic interception actions. Here, data supported proposals that precision weighting functions are aberrant in autistic people, and suggested that these individuals have difficulties with processing volatile sensory information. These difficulties were not alleviated by the experimental provision of explicit contextual cues in study four. Together, these studies implicate the role of implicit neuromodulatory mechanisms that regulate dynamic sensorimotor behaviours. Results support the development of evidence-based programmes that ‘make the world more predictable’ for autistic people, with various theoretical and practical implications presented. Possible applications of these findings are discussed in relation to recent multi-disciplinary research and conceptual advances in the field, which could help improve daily living skills and functional quality of life.Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC

Encoding and recall of memory for reward location in the mouse hippocampus

The memory of where to find food can be crucial for an animal’s survival. Encoding and recall of these spatial memories involves the hippocampus, but whether and how hippocampal activity integrates memories of spatial relationships and locations is poorly understood. This thesis investigates how hippocampal activity facilitates the encoding of reward memories and how this encoding shapes hippocampal activity during memory recall in mice learning reward locations. Encoding of memory happens in stages that depend on the hippocampal state. The thesis interrogated how two different hippocampal states, one during movement and the other during reward consumption, are affected by acetylcholine – a neuromodulator released predominantly during movement and exploration. The findings highlight how acetylcholine modulates hippocampal state and how, when experimentally altered, it can impede memory encoding. Hippocampal activity facilitates navigation towards the learned reward locations. Individual neurons fire at specific locations of the environment, and, collectively, they cover the environment forming its cognitive map. To answer how the hippocampal activity could encode a memory of reward location, the thesis investigated how these spatial representations and the population activity change after learning. I found that the reward memory shapes the activity in the dorsal CA1 of the hippocampus by modulating its overall population activity and in the intermediate CA1 by modulating the activity of a reward-specific cell population. Together, these results suggest how hippocampal activity could facilitate encoding and recall of memory for reward locations