Reviewing agent-based modelling of socio-ecosystems: a methodology for the analysis of climate change adaptation and sustainability

The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components.Review, Agent-Based Modelling, Socio-Ecosystems, Climate Change, Adaptation, Complexity.

Optimizing resilience decision-support for natural gas networks under uncertainty

2019 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Community resilience in the aftermath of a hazard requires the functionality of complex, interdependent infrastructure systems become operational in a timely manner to support social and economic institutions. In the context of risk management and community resilience, critical decisions should be made not only in the aftermath of a disaster in order to immediately respond to the destructive event and properly repair the damage, but preventive decisions should to be made in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of hazards prior to their occurrence. This involves significant uncertainty about the basic notion of the hazard itself, and usually involves mitigation strategies such as strengthening components or preparing required resources for post-event repairs. In essence, instances of risk management problems that encourage a framework for coupled decisions before and after events include modeling how to allocate resources before the disruptive event so as to maximize the efficiency for their distribution to repair in the aftermath of the event, and how to determine which network components require preventive investments in order to enhance their performance in case of an event. In this dissertation, a methodology is presented for optimal decision making for resilience assessment, seismic risk mitigation, and recovery of natural gas networks, taking into account their interdependency with some of the other systems within the community. In this regard, the natural gas and electric power networks of a virtual community were modeled with enough detail such that it enables assessment of natural gas network supply at the community level. The effect of the industrial makeup of a community on its natural gas recovery following an earthquake, as well as the effect of replacing conventional steel pipes with ductile HDPE pipelines as an effective mitigation strategy against seismic hazard are investigated. In addition, a multi objective optimization framework that integrates probabilistic seismic risk assessment of coupled infrastructure systems and evolutionary algorithms is proposed in order to determine cost-optimal decisions before and after a seismic event, with the objective of making the natural gas network recover more rapidly, and thus the community more resilient. Including bi-directional interdependencies between the natural gas and electric power network, strategic decisions are pursued regarding which distribution pipelines in the gas network should be retrofitted under budget constraints, with the objectives to minimizing the number of people without natural gas in the residential sector and business losses due to the lack of natural gas in non-residential sectors. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used in order to propagate uncertainties and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is adopted in order to capture uncertainties in the seismic hazard with an approach to preserve spatial correlation. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) approach is utilized to solve the multi-objective optimization problem under study. The results prove the potential of the developed methodology to provide risk-informed decision support, while being able to deal with large-scale, interdependent complex infrastructure considering probabilistic seismic hazard scenarios

Spatial Pricing and the Location of Processors in Agricultural Markets

Spatially dispersed production and processing, endemic for most agricultural or renewable resource markets, causes oligopsonistic competition. The possibility and use of spatial price discrimination in these markets is well documented. It is also well known that the location of processors relative to competitors crucially affects the intensity of competition. However, insights regarding the relation between spatial price discrimination and the spatial differentiation of firms are barely present because the simultaneous investigation of these issues is often intractable analytically. We use computational economics to study these problems under a general theoretical framework. For instance, we show whether and under which conditions firms choose to differentiate their locations and/or price strategies. Results are consistent with observations in agricultural markets.spatial price competition, spatial differentiation, price discrimination, computational economics, Agribusiness,

A Multi-objective Exploratory Procedure for Regression Model Selection

Variable selection is recognized as one of the most critical steps in statistical modeling. The problems encountered in engineering and social sciences are commonly characterized by over-abundance of explanatory variables, non-linearities and unknown interdependencies between the regressors. An added difficulty is that the analysts may have little or no prior knowledge on the relative importance of the variables. To provide a robust method for model selection, this paper introduces the Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm for Variable Selection (MOGA-VS) that provides the user with an optimal set of regression models for a given data-set. The algorithm considers the regression problem as a two objective task, and explores the Pareto-optimal (best subset) models by preferring those models over the other which have less number of regression coefficients and better goodness of fit. The model exploration can be performed based on in-sample or generalization error minimization. The model selection is proposed to be performed in two steps. First, we generate the frontier of Pareto-optimal regression models by eliminating the dominated models without any user intervention. Second, a decision making process is executed which allows the user to choose the most preferred model using visualisations and simple metrics. The method has been evaluated on a recently published real dataset on Communities and Crime within United States.Comment: in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 24, Iss. 1, 201

Contextualized property market models vs. Generalized mass appraisals: An innovative approach

The present research takes into account the current and widespread need for rational valuation methodologies, able to correctly interpret the available market data. An innovative automated valuation model has been simultaneously implemented to three Italian study samples, each one constituted by two-hundred residential units sold in the years 2016-2017. The ability to generate a "unique" functional form for the three different territorial contexts considered, in which the relationships between the influencing factors and the selling prices are specified by different multiplicative coefficients that appropriately represent the market phenomena of each case study analyzed, is the main contribution of the proposed methodology. The method can provide support for private operators in the assessment of the territorial investment conveniences and for the public entities in the decisional phases regarding future tax and urban planning policies

A reusable iterative optimization software library to solve combinatorial problems with approximate reasoning

Real world combinatorial optimization problems such as scheduling are typically too complex to solve with exact methods. Additionally, the problems often have to observe vaguely specified constraints of different importance, the available data may be uncertain, and compromises between antagonistic criteria may be necessary. We present a combination of approximate reasoning based constraints and iterative optimization based heuristics that help to model and solve such problems in a framework of C++ software libraries called StarFLIP++. While initially developed to schedule continuous caster units in steel plants, we present in this paper results from reusing the library components in a shift scheduling system for the workforce of an industrial production plant.Comment: 33 pages, 9 figures; for a project overview see http://www.dbai.tuwien.ac.at/proj/StarFLIP

Modeling Routines and Organizational Learning. A Discussion of the State-of-the-Art

This paper presents a critical overview of some recent attempts at building formal models of organizations as information-processing and problem-solving entities. We distinguish between two classes of models according to the different objects of analysis. The first class includes models mainly addressing information processing and learning and analyzes the relations between the structure of information flows, learning patterns, and organizational performances. The second class focuses on the relationship between the division of cognitive labor and search processes in some problem-solving space, addressing more directly the notion of organizations as repositories of problem-solving knowledge. Here the objects of analysis are the problem-solving procedures which the organization embodies. The results begin to highlight important comparative properties regarding the impact on problem-solving efficiency and learning of different forms of hierarchical governance, the dangers of lock-in associated with specific forms of adaptive learning, the relative role of “online” vs. “offline” learning, the impact of the “cognitive maps” which organizations embody, the possible trade-offs between accuracy and speed of convergence associated with different “decomposition schemes”. We argue that these are important formal tools towards the development of a comparative institutional analysis addressing the distinct properties of different forms of organization and accumulation of knowledge.Division of labor, Mental models, Problem-solving, Problem decomposition.