Software cost estimation

The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be estimated? (4) What can software project management expect from SCE models, how accurate are estimations which are made using these kind of models, and what are the pros and cons of cost estimation models

The Quest for Bandwidth Estimation Techniques for large-scale Distributed Systems

In recent years the research community has developed many techniques to estimate the end-to-end available bandwidth of an Internet path. This important metric has been proposed for use in several distributed systems and, more recently, has even been considered to improve the congestion control mechanism of TCP. Thus, it has been suggested that some existing estimation techniques could be used for this purpose. However, existing tools were not designed for large-scale deployments and were mostly validated in controlled settings, considering only one measurement running at a time. In this paper, we argue that current tools, while offering good estimates when used alone, might not work in large-scale systems where several estimations severely interfere with each other. We analyze the properties of the measurement paradigms employed today and discuss their functioning, study their overhead and analyze their interference. Our testbed results show that current techniques are insufficient as they are. Finally, we will discuss and propose some principles that should be taken into account for including available bandwidth measurements in large-scale distributed systems. 1

A literature review of expert problem solving using analogy

We consider software project cost estimation from a problem solving perspective. Taking a cognitive psychological approach, we argue that the algorithmic basis for CBR tools is not representative of human problem solving and this mismatch could account for inconsistent results. We describe the fundamentals of problem solving, focusing on experts solving ill-defined problems. This is supplemented by a systematic literature review of empirical studies of expert problem solving of non-trivial problems. We identified twelve studies. These studies suggest that analogical reasoning plays an important role in problem solving, but that CBR tools do not model this in a biologically plausible way. For example, the ability to induce structure and therefore find deeper analogies is widely seen as the hallmark of an expert. However, CBR tools fail to provide support for this type of reasoning for prediction. We conclude this mismatch between experts’ cognitive processes and software tools contributes to the erratic performance of analogy-based prediction

Large scale probabilistic available bandwidth estimation

The common utilization-based definition of available bandwidth and many of the existing tools to estimate it suffer from several important weaknesses: i) most tools report a point estimate of average available bandwidth over a measurement interval and do not provide a confidence interval; ii) the commonly adopted models used to relate the available bandwidth metric to the measured data are invalid in almost all practical scenarios; iii) existing tools do not scale well and are not suited to the task of multi-path estimation in large-scale networks; iv) almost all tools use ad-hoc techniques to address measurement noise; and v) tools do not provide enough flexibility in terms of accuracy, overhead, latency and reliability to adapt to the requirements of various applications. In this paper we propose a new definition for available bandwidth and a novel framework that addresses these issues. We define probabilistic available bandwidth (PAB) as the largest input rate at which we can send a traffic flow along a path while achieving, with specified probability, an output rate that is almost as large as the input rate. PAB is expressed directly in terms of the measurable output rate and includes adjustable parameters that allow the user to adapt to different application requirements. Our probabilistic framework to estimate network-wide probabilistic available bandwidth is based on packet trains, Bayesian inference, factor graphs and active sampling. We deploy our tool on the PlanetLab network and our results show that we can obtain accurate estimates with a much smaller measurement overhead compared to existing approaches.Comment: Submitted to Computer Network

Half a billion simulations: evolutionary algorithms and distributed computing for calibrating the SimpopLocal geographical model

Multi-agent geographical models integrate very large numbers of spatial interactions. In order to validate those models large amount of computing is necessary for their simulation and calibration. Here a new data processing chain including an automated calibration procedure is experimented on a computational grid using evolutionary algorithms. This is applied for the first time to a geographical model designed to simulate the evolution of an early urban settlement system. The method enables us to reduce the computing time and provides robust results. Using this method, we identify several parameter settings that minimise three objective functions that quantify how closely the model results match a reference pattern. As the values of each parameter in different settings are very close, this estimation considerably reduces the initial possible domain of variation of the parameters. The model is thus a useful tool for further multiple applications on empirical historical situations

Review of Methods for Estimating the Economic Impact of Transportation Improvements

Transportation analysts and the public decision-makers they support are confronted with a broad range of analytical tools for estimating the economic impacts of improvements to trans- portation networks. Many of the available models operate at different scales and have distinctly different structures, making them more or less appropriate for analyzing the impacts of differ- ent types of projects. Here, we review several of the economic methods and models that have been developed for analyzing the impact of transportation improvements, giving special atten- tion to types of projects that add highway capacity in urban areas. We review project-based methods, including beneÞt-cost analysis and several analytical software tools developed by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) for economic analysis of transportation investment. We then move on to aggregate and disaggregate-level econometric methods, including regional economic models, hedonic price functions, production functions and cliometric analyses. We also devote some attention to the role of induced demand in economic evaluation, since it is of- ten one of the most uncertain and confounding factors faced by those charged with conducting economic evaluation of transportation projects.Economic Impact, Benefit-Cost Analysis

An integrated methodology for the design of Ro-Ro passenger ships

The present paper provides a brief introduction to the holistic approach to ship design, defines the generic ship design optimization problem and demonstrates its solution by use of advanced optimization techniques