1,123 research outputs found

    Operational Decision Making under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, and Adversarial Approaches

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    Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the adversarial setting, this work presents a new application of counterfactual regret minimization and robust optimization to a multi-domain cyber and air defense problem in a partially observable environment

    Cyber Threat Intelligence based Holistic Risk Quantification and Management

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    Defensive Cyber Maneuvers to Disrupt Cyber Attackers

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    erimeter based defenses are limited in deterring and defeating cyberattacks. Multi-layered approaches are needed to provide robust cybersecurity and defend against Advanced Persistent Threats. Proactive defensive cyber actions can provide positional or temporal advantages over an adversary in the cognitive, technical, and physical domains. These actions comprise cyber maneuvers, which are implemented reconfigurations to a network that aim to make attackers more visible and detectable, impede attacker progress, and reduce attackers’ chances of mission success. Technical actions and response are the primary focus of most current cyber defense frameworks with little attention on adversary behavioral and cognitive effects. We describe the enhanced cyber maneuver framework which addresses cognitive and behavioral responses to cyber effects. We present experimental results that demonstrate the framework and a testing approach to collect supporting findings on the effects of cyber maneuvers
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