3,161 research outputs found
Optimal Uncertainty Quantification
We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which
the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the
forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty
Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of
assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on
uncertainties: these are obtained as values of well-defined optimization
problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of
deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with
the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not
implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant
information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show
that under general conditions they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an
application, we develop \emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of
Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, these results show that
uncertainties in input parameters, which propagate to output uncertainties in
the classical sensitivity analysis paradigm, may fail to do so if the transfer
functions (or probability distributions) are imperfectly known. We show how,
for hierarchical structures, this phenomenon may lead to the non-propagation of
uncertainties or information across scales. In addition, a general algorithmic
framework is developed for OUQ and is tested on the Caltech surrogate model for
hypervelocity impact and on the seismic safety assessment of truss structures,
suggesting the feasibility of the framework for important complex systems. The
introduction of this paper provides both an overview of the paper and a
self-contained mini-tutorial about basic concepts and issues of UQ.Comment: 90 pages. Accepted for publication in SIAM Review (Expository
Research Papers). See SIAM Review for higher quality figure
A bibliography on parallel and vector numerical algorithms
This is a bibliography of numerical methods. It also includes a number of other references on machine architecture, programming language, and other topics of interest to scientific computing. Certain conference proceedings and anthologies which have been published in book form are listed also
Principles for problem aggregation and assignment in medium scale multiprocessors
One of the most important issues in parallel processing is the mapping of workload to processors. This paper considers a large class of problems having a high degree of potential fine grained parallelism, and execution requirements that are either not predictable, or are too costly to predict. The main issues in mapping such a problem onto medium scale multiprocessors are those of aggregation and assignment. We study a method of parameterized aggregation that makes few assumptions about the workload. The mapping of aggregate units of work onto processors is uniform, and exploits locality of workload intensity to balance the unknown workload. In general, a finer aggregate granularity leads to a better balance at the price of increased communication/synchronization costs; the aggregation parameters can be adjusted to find a reasonable granularity. The effectiveness of this scheme is demonstrated on three model problems: an adaptive one-dimensional fluid dynamics problem with message passing, a sparse triangular linear system solver on both a shared memory and a message-passing machine, and a two-dimensional time-driven battlefield simulation employing message passing. Using the model problems, the tradeoffs are studied between balanced workload and the communication/synchronization costs. Finally, an analytical model is used to explain why the method balances workload and minimizes the variance in system behavior
A survey of statistical network models
Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for
discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of
network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of
study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation.
Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in
social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an
active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort
moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past
decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and
computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online
networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of
more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in
the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide
the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an
overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then
we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network
literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static
and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal
model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of
parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open
problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.Comment: 96 pages, 14 figures, 333 reference
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