Empirical Bernstein stopping

Sampling is a popular way of scaling up machine learning algorithms to large datasets. The question often is how many samples are needed. Adaptive stopping algorithms monitor the performance in an online fashion and they can stop early, saving valuable resources. We consider problems where probabilistic guarantees are desired and demonstrate how recently-introduced empirical Bernstein bounds can be used to design stopping rules that are efficient. We provide upper bounds on the sample complexity of the new rules, as well as empirical results on model selection and boosting in the filtering setting

Most Likely Transformations

We propose and study properties of maximum likelihood estimators in the class of conditional transformation models. Based on a suitable explicit parameterisation of the unconditional or conditional transformation function, we establish a cascade of increasingly complex transformation models that can be estimated, compared and analysed in the maximum likelihood framework. Models for the unconditional or conditional distribution function of any univariate response variable can be set-up and estimated in the same theoretical and computational framework simply by choosing an appropriate transformation function and parameterisation thereof. The ability to evaluate the distribution function directly allows us to estimate models based on the exact likelihood, especially in the presence of random censoring or truncation. For discrete and continuous responses, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. A reference software implementation of maximum likelihood-based estimation for conditional transformation models allowing the same flexibility as the theory developed here was employed to illustrate the wide range of possible applications.Comment: Accepted for publication by the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 2017-06-1