Resilience and regime shifts in a marine biodiversity hotspot

Complex natural systems, spanning from individuals and populations to ecosystems and socialecological systems, often exhibit abrupt reorganizations in response to changing stressors, known as regime shifts or critical transitions. Theory suggests that such systems feature folded stability landscapes with fluctuating resilience, fold-bifurcations, and alternate basins of attraction. However, the implementation of such features to elucidate response mechanisms in an empirical context is scarce, due to the lack of generic approaches to quantify resilience dynamics in individual natural systems. Here, we introduce an Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA) framework: a three-step analytical process to assess resilience and construct stability landscapes of empirical systems. The proposed framework involves a multivariate analysis to estimate holistic system indicator variables, non-additive modelling to estimate alternate attractors, and a quantitative resilience assessment to scale stability landscapes. We implement this framework to investigate the temporal development of the Mediterranean marine communities in response to sea warming during 1985–2013, using fisheries landings data. Our analysis revealed a nonlinear tropicalisation of the Mediterranean Sea, expressed as abrupt shifts to regimes dominated by thermophilic species. The approach exemplified here for the Mediterranean Sea, revealing previously unknown resilience dynamics driven by climate forcing, can elucidate resilience and shifts in other complex systems

Social Resilience Assessment Framework in the Context of Organizations Operating in Rural Areas: Conceptual Review

The article analyses the social resilience factors that influence the activity of organizations operating in rural regions. Revealing how the concept of social resilience becomes more and more important in modern societyto create risk management factors within an organization. The article presents an analysis of social resilience, determines the theoretical principles and empirical results based on which the social resilience factors are planned. In order to identify thefactors that are important for the assessment of the social resistance of organizations in rural areas, the research is the analysis of scientific literature. Based on the results of the research, the model of social resistance assessment of the organizations was formed

Towards a theoretical grounding of climate resilience assessments for smallholder farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

Resilience assessments are increasingly used to inform management decisions and development interventions across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In light of current and future climate change and variability, there is growing interest in applying such tools and frameworks to assess and strengthen the climate resilience of smallholder farming systems. However, these assessments are often undertaken without explicit consideration of the resilience thinking in which they are grounded. This makes it difficult to understand how the conceptual aspects of resilience are translating into resilience assessment practice. This paper provides an important first step in tackling this gap, by identifying and using key characteristics of resilience thinking to evaluate existing resilience assessment tools and frameworks and drawing insights for assessing the climate resilience of smallholder farming systems. We find that power, politics, and agency, identified as important in the resilience literature, are not fully incorporated within current tools and frameworks. This leads to inadequate consideration of spatial and temporal trade-offs. We propose six recommendations for assessing the climate resilience of smallholder farming systems in SSA in order to enhance the linkages between resilience theory and practice. These are: (1) better integrate vulnerability and resilience; (2) recognize that resilience does not equal development or poverty reduction; (3) recognize the benefits and limitations of adopting flexible, participatory approaches; (4) integrate issues of power into assessment tools; (5) target specific systems; and (6) encourage knowledge sharing, empirical studies, and critical evaluation. Our findings contribute to improved understanding of applications of resilience thinking to enhance natural resource management

Autonomic and brain morphological predictors of stress resilience

Stressful life events are an important cause of psychopathology. Humans exposed to aversive or stressful experiences show considerable inter-individual heterogeneity in their responses. However, the majority does not develop stress-related psychiatric disorders. The dynamic processes encompassing positive and functional adaptation in the face of significant adversity have been broadly defined as resilience. Traditionally, the assessment of resilience has been confined to self-report measures, both within the general community and putative high-risk populations. Although this approach has value, it is highly susceptible to subjective bias and may not capture the dynamic nature of resilience, as underlying construct. Recognizing the obvious benefits of more objective measures of resilience, research in the field has just started investigating the predictive value of several potential biological markers. This review provides an overview of theoretical views and empirical evidence suggesting that individual differences in heart rate variability (HRV), a surrogate index of resting cardiac vagal outflow, may underlie different levels of resilience toward the development of stress-related psychiatric disorders. Following this line of thought, recent studies describing associations between regional brain morphometric characteristics and resting state vagally-mediated HRV are summarized. Existing studies suggest that the structural morphology of the anterior cingulated cortex (ACC), particularly its cortical thickness, is implicated in the expression of individual differences in HRV. These findings are discussed in light of emerging structural neuroimaging research, linking morphological characteristics of the ACC to psychological traits ascribed to a high-resilient profile and abnormal structural integrity of the ACC to the psychophysiological expression of stress-related mental health consequences. We conclude that a multidisciplinary approach integrating brain structural imaging with HRV monitoring could offer novel perspectives about brain-body pathways in resilience and adaptation to psychological stres

A systematic review on health resilience to economic crises

Background The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises. Methods We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed. Results From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women’s mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men’s. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours. Conclusions Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience

A systematic review on health resilience to economic crises

Background The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises. Methods We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed. Results From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women’s mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men’s. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours. Conclusions Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience

An Empirical Assessment of Cybersecurity Readiness and Resilience in Small Businesses

A cyber-attack can become costly if small businesses are not prepared to protect their information systems or lack the ability to recover from a cybersecurity incident. Small businesses that are not ready to deal with cyber threats are risking significant disruption and loss. In many cases the small business decision makers, owners or managers, do not have a strategy to improve their cybersecurity posture despite the known risk to their business. This research study focused on the relationship between two constructs that are associated with readiness and resilience of small businesses based on their cybersecurity planning, implementation, as well as response and recovery activities. An empirical assessment was conducted on small businesses’ level preparedness relative to their decision makers’ perceived risk of cyber-attack (perceived likelihood x perceived impact). Subject matter experts (SMEs) were used to validate a set of cybersecurity preparedness activities for the construct of cybersecurity preparedness. The SMEs approved 70 cybersecurity preparedness activities among the five functions of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework to assess the level of cybersecurity preparedness of small businesses. The SMEs then assigned weights to the validated preparedness activities to enable an aggregated benchmark cybersecurity preparedness score (CPS). The construct the decision maker’s perceived risk of cyberattack (DMPRCA) was updated with a set of common cyber threat vectors and using simple definitions from the SMEs. A Cybersecurity Preparedness-Risk Taxonomy (CyPRisT) was then developed using the theoretical foundation of prospect theory and status quo bias. The four quadrants of cybersecurity risk postures were defined as indifference, susceptible, aversive, and strategic. The aggregated scores of CPSs and DMPRCA were positioned on the CyPRisT for each of the 216 small businesses who participated in this study. Statistical differences were found in the CPSs and DMPRCA by demographics industry, size (number of employees), and Information Technology (IT) budget (%). The findings of the quantitative analysis are presented along with the position on the CyPRisT for each demographic indicator of the businesses. The Cybersecurity Assessment of Risk Management to optimize Readiness and Resilience (cyberARMoRR) program for small businesses was developed as a cybersecurity strategy planning guide and collection of resources. The cyberARMoRR program was administered to 50 small business decision makers. The CPSs and DMPRCA were evaluated before and after participation in cyberARMoRR program and positioned on the CyPRisT to assess differences in the small businesses’ cybersecurity posture. The results of the paired sample t-test showed no significant differences between the pretest and posttest groups. However, there was an observed increase in both the CPSs and DMPRCA that moved the position toward the risk-aversive quadrant of the CyPRisT. An analysis of the empirical data was conducted on the cybersecurity preparedness activities that participants identified as most challenging to implement and their explanations of why. Data were collected from 15 semi-structured interviews and 50 surveys with five open-ended questions, one per each function of the NIST Cybersecurity Framework. A two-cycle thematic analysis was performed using the responses that described the challenges of cybersecurity preparedness activities. The results of the qualitative analysis suggest that small business decision makers are more likely to improve their ability to mitigate cyber threats when the applicable technologies are uncomplicated, technical expertise is accessible, and cybersecurity educational material is easy to understand. The small business owners and managers also indicated that the cybersecurity preparedness activities are more attainable when the demand of their time did not change their focus away from business operations. Conversely, the small businesses that were able to improve their cybersecurity posture had committed to incorporating many of the cybersecurity preparedness activities into their routine business processes, such as allocating a budget for cybersecurity and performing vulnerability assessments. The effects of prospect theory and status quo bias are discussed in the context of the CyPRisT positions for the small businesses

Integrating Resilience into Risk Matrices: A Practical Approach to Risk Assessment with Empirical Analysis

The changing and intensifying landscape of global, national, and local disaster risks, driven by socio-political, environmental, and technological shifts, underscores the critical need for risk assessment by international agencies and governments. The Risk Matrix, introduced in 1995, has been widely used for risk assessment in different contexts, lauded for its simplicity and effectiveness. This model relies on the core risk components of consequence and likelihood, making it a favored tool for risk managers. To enhance the precision of risk assessment, various adaptations and extensions of the risk matrix have emerged; while some indirectly address resilience aspects, none explicitly integrate resilience into the matrix. This paper explores the risk matrix and its extensions, advocating for the inclusion of resilience in risk assessment. It introduces an empirical approach to quantify resilience, through a survey targeting small and medium-sized businesses in Southern Ontario, Canada. By developing two types of risk matrices—one with resilience considerations and one without—our work demonstrates how resilience alters risk prioritization, highlighting the importance of preparedness. This research underscores the pivotal role of resilience in risk assessment and urges its explicit integration into risk matrices to enhance accuracy and efficacy. Through practical examples and empirical data, the paper builds a compelling case for the central role of resilience in modern risk assessment practices

How should we measure psychological resilience in sport performers?

Psychological resilience is important in sport because athletes must constantly withstand a wide range of pressures to attain and sustain high performance. To advance psychologists’ understanding of this area, there exists an urgent need to develop a sport-specific measure of resilience. The purpose of this paper is to review psychometric issues in resilience research and to discuss the implications for sport psychology. Drawing on the wider general psychology literature to inform the discussion, the narrative is divided into three main sections relating to resilience and its assessment: adversity, positive adaptation, and protective factors. The first section reviews the different ways that adversity has been measured and considers the potential problems of using items with varying degrees of controllability and risk. The second section discusses the different approaches to assessing positive adaptation and examines the issue of circularity pervasive in resilience research. The final section explores the various issues related to the assessment of protective factors drawing directly from current measures of resilience in other psychology sub-disciplines. The commentary concludes with key recommendations for sport psychology researchers seeking to develop a measure of psychological resilience in athletes

Conceptualizing community resilience to natural hazards - the emBRACE framework

Abstract. The level of community is considered to be vital for building disaster resilience. Yet, community resilience as a scientific concept often remains vaguely defined and lacks the guiding characteristics necessary for analysing and enhancing resilience on the ground. The emBRACE framework of community resilience presented in this paper provides a heuristic analytical tool for understanding, explaining and measuring community resilience to natural hazards. It was developed in an iterative process building on existing scholarly debates, on empirical case study work in five countries and on participatory consultation with community stakeholders, where the framework was applied and ground-tested in different contexts and for different hazard types. The framework conceptualizes resilience across three core domains: resources and capacities; actions; and learning. These three domains are conceptualized as intrinsically conjoined within a whole. Community resilience is influenced by these integral elements as well as by extra-community forces, comprising disaster risk governance and thus laws, policies and responsibilities on the one hand and on the other, the general societal context, natural and human-made disturbances and system change over time. The framework is a graphically rendered heuristic, which through application can assist in guiding the assessment of community resilience in a systematic way and identifying key drivers and barriers of resilience that affect any particular hazard-exposed community