An optimal feedback model to prevent manipulation behaviours in consensus under social network group decision making

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.A novel framework to prevent manipulation behaviour in consensus reaching process under social network group decision making is proposed, which is based on a theoretically sound optimal feedback model. The manipulation behaviour classification is twofold: (1) ‘individual manipulation’ where each expert manipulates his/her own behaviour to achieve higher importance degree (weight); and (2) ‘group manipulation’ where a group of experts force inconsistent experts to adopt specific recommendation advices obtained via the use of fixed feedback parameter. To counteract ‘individual manipulation’, a behavioural weights assignment method modelling sequential attitude ranging from ‘dictatorship’ to ‘democracy’ is developed, and then a reasonable policy for group minimum adjustment cost is established to assign appropriate weights to experts. To prevent ‘group manipulation’, an optimal feedback model with objective function the individual adjustments cost and constraints related to the threshold of group consensus is investigated. This approach allows the inconsistent experts to balance group consensus and adjustment cost, which enhances their willingness to adopt the recommendation advices and consequently the group reaching consensus on the decision making problem at hand. A numerical example is presented to illustrate and verify the proposed optimal feedback model

An information assistant system for the prevention of tunnel vision in crisis management

In the crisis management environment, tunnel vision is a set of bias in decision makers’ cognitive process which often leads to incorrect understanding of the real crisis situation, biased perception of information, and improper decisions. The tunnel vision phenomenon is a consequence of both the challenges in the task and the natural limitation in a human being’s cognitive process. An information assistant system is proposed with the purpose of preventing tunnel vision. The system serves as a platform for monitoring the on-going crisis event. All information goes through the system before arrives at the user. The system enhances the data quality, reduces the data quantity and presents the crisis information in a manner that prevents or repairs the user’s cognitive overload. While working with such a system, the users (crisis managers) are expected to be more likely to stay aware of the actual situation, stay open minded to possibilities, and make proper decisions

Rule-based reservoir operation considering long range forecast

A model for long range and real time reservoir operations is developed, considering the medium and long range weather forecast provided by the meteorological agency. The reasoning employed by the reservoir operator to make the appropriate decision on the reservoir operations, in the presence of uncertainty and inevitable errors in the forecast, is modeled through a rule-based scheme. A fuzzy inference procedure is used to evaluate the rules and produce the control output. The forecast inputs are of medium and long range inflow rates and trends. The operations are conducted according to "control levels" that are related to control actions designed to keep the reservoir state as near as possible to the target one. The simulation of the operation of a single reservoir throughout the year is performed for water utilization, hydropower and river preservation purposes. The focus is on drought management, and the results show that the model behaviour is coherent with the model formulation

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

Towards Managing and Understanding the Risk of Underwater Terrorism

This dissertation proposes a methodology to manage and understand the risk of underwater terrorism to critical infrastructures utilizing the parameters of the risk equation. Current methods frequently rely on statistical methods, which suffer from a lack of appropriate historical data to produce distributions and do not integrate epistemic uncertainty. Other methods rely on locating subject matter experts who can provide judgment and then undertaking an associated validation of these judgments. Using experimentation, data from unclassified successful, or near successful, underwater attacks are analyzed and instantiated as a network graph with the key characteristics of the risk of terrorism represented as nodes and the relationship between the key characteristics forming the edges. The values of the key characteristics, instantiated as the length of the edges, are defaulted to absolute uncertainty, the state where there is no information for, or against, a particular causal factor. To facilitate obtaining the value of the nodes, the Malice spectrum is formally defined which provides a dimensionless, methodology independent model to determine the value of any given parameter. The methodology produces a meta-model constructed from the relationships between the parameters of the risk equation, which determines a relative risk value

A Fuzzy Logic Control application to the Cement Industry

A case study on continuous process control based on fuzzy logic and supported by expert knowledge is proposed. The aim is to control the coal-grinding operations in a cement manufacturing plant. Fuzzy logic is based on linguistic variables that emulate human judgment and can solve complex modeling problems subject to uncertainty or incomplete information. Fuzzy controllers can handle control problems when an accurate model of the process is unavailable, ill-defined, or subject to excessive parameter variations. The system implementation resulted in productivity gains and energy consumption reductions of 3% and 5% respectively, in line with the literature related to similar applications

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF DWELLING BUILDINGS

Risk is defined as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified area unit and period. The evaluation of physical vulnerability and risk of buildings is the main purpose of this chapter. Nevertheless, it is shown the necessity of considering not only the expected physical damage but also the social fragility and the lack of resilience of the exposed community, that is, a holistic evaluation of risk aiming at guiding decision making.  Both the vulnerability index and capacity spectrum methods for the evaluation of the physical risk are discussed herein. Both provide good results for the considered case study the urban area of Barcelona, Spain. Both methods show how a city, located in a low to moderate hazard region, which has paid no attention to the seismic performance of their buildings, has buildings with a high seismic vulnerability and a considerable seismic risk

THE IMPACT OF LANGUAGE ON THE EXPRESSION AND ASSESSMENT OF PAIN IN CHILDREN AGED 4-7 YEARS: A MIXED METHODS STUDY

The assessment of pain in children has been an enduring theme in the research literature over many decades, with particular focus on how pain can be adequately measured and the extent of under-measurement of pain (American Academy of Pediatrics 2001; Coyne, 2006; McCaffery & Beebe 1989; Subhashini et al., 2009). Definitions of pain, and hence development of pain measurement tools, are often criticised for not addressing the influence of culture and ethnicity on pain (Bates et al., 1993; McCaffery & Beebe 1989; Zinke, 2007), in children, the perception and expression of pain is also affected by cognitive development (Hallström and Elander, 2004). Whilst there has been an increase in the number of children living in the United Kingdom (UK) who do not speak English as their first language, it has been acknowledged that the measurement and management of pain by health service professionals relies predominantly on their experience with English speaking children (RCN, 2009). This study aimed primarily to examine how primary school age children in key stage 1 who speak English as a primary or additional language experience, express, and explain pain. This aim was addressed through three research questions: (1) how do primary school age children in key stage 1 talk about pain? (2) What are the similarities and differences in the language used to talk about pain by children with English as a primary and additional language? (3) Are there differences in the perceptions of pain by children of different age, gender, language background, and country of birth? A second aim was to examine whether language would affect actions taken by final year child health students and nurses working in Minor Injuries Units to manage pain in primary school age children. Study objectives were addressed using a two phase mixed methods design. The first aim was addressed using six focus group interviews with groups of primary school children (aged 4-7) (Phase 1). Two methods were used in the interviews: use of drawings from the Pediatric Pain Inventory (Lollar et al., 1982) to capture the language used by children to describe pain and observation of the children’s placing of pain drawings on red/amber/green paper to denote perceived severity of pain. Following data collection, the vocabulary of each child was assessed using a standardised lexical test (British Picture Vocabulary Score version II - BPVS II) (Dunn et al., 1997). To address the second aim, a factorial survey was conducted (Phase 2) with nurses working in Minor Injuries Units and child health nursing students to determine whether language has an impact on decisions made about the management of children in pain following a minor injury. Phase 1 findings demonstrated that children from English as an Additional Language (EAL) backgrounds used less elaborate language when talking about pain but tended to talk about the pictures prior to deciding where they should be placed. The children’s placement of pain drawings varied according to language background, gender, and age. The calculated language age of English lexical comprehension (BPVS II score) of monolingual children (M=69.85, SD=19.27) was significantly higher than EAL children (M=47.93, SD=14.32; t (32) = 3.60, p =0.001, two-tailed). However, when these differences were explored in terms of year group, the differences remain significant with foundation and year 2 but not with year 1. For the EAL children, there were also significant relationships between BPVS II score and length of stay in the UK (spearman’s rho 0.749, p = 0.33). The Phase 1 findings were used to construct vignettes, describing hypothetical care situations, for Phase 2. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyse the impact of a child’s age, gender, language, parent’s language, injury mechanism, and reaction to pain on the way in which the child’s pain would be assessed and whether parents or an interpreter would be invited to assist in pain assessment. Findings demonstrated that observing the child’s behaviour is the most significant assessment process that is used to assess EAL children, rather than the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), which was used with non-EAL children. This is significant as VAS is the mostly widely used tool to assess pain in health care settings. However, VAS is only effective if it can be understood by the child. Further, MIU nurses and child health students were more likely to involve parents who speak English well than those who speak English poorly but would ask for an interpreter if their involvement was necessary. In order for the respondents to explain their decisions, they were asked an open ended question for each vignette. They reported that language and age of children are the most common difficulties they faced during assessment of pain. Therefore, they suggested some solutions, like using an age appropriate tools for assessing younger children. Respondents also identified that using an interpreter is a time consuming process, which might delay the management of pain. In light of the growing numbers of EAL children in the UK; this research has application in a number of contexts. The variation in language would apply if children were reporting their own pain. However, the findings emphasise the need for sufficient time to be allocated to pain assessment to allow an individualised approach. Study findings suggest several factors that may be important in assessing pain in EAL children; these should be explored further in the context of clinicians’ assessment of pain. The implications of the study impact on policy, practice, education, and future research.Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research/ Ira

Assessing the Effectiveness of Workload Measures in the Nuclear Domain

An operator\u27s performance and mental workload when interacting with a complex system, such as the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP), are major concerns when seeking to accomplish safe and successful operations. The impact of performance on operator workload is one of the most widely researched areas in human factors science with over five hundred workload articles published since the 1960s (Brannick, Salas, & Prince, 1997; Meshkati & Hancock, 2011). Researchers have used specific workload measures across domains to assess the effects of taskload. However, research has not sufficiently assessed the psychometric properties, such as reliability, validity, and sensitivity, which delineates and limits the roles of these measures in workload assessment (Nygren, 1991). As a result, there is no sufficiently effective measure for indicating changes in workload for distinct tasks across multiple domains (Abich, 2013). Abich (2013) was the most recent to systematically test the subjective and objective workload measures for determining the universality and sensitivity of each alone or in combination. This systematic approach assessed taskload changes within three tasks in the context of a military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. The purpose for the present experiment was to determine if certain workload measures are sufficiently effective across domains by taking the findings from one domain (military) and testing whether those results hold true in a different domain, that of nuclear. Results showed that only two measures (NASA-TLX frustration and fNIR) were sufficiently effective at indicating workload changes between the three task types in the nuclear domain, but many measures were statistically significant. The results of this research effort combined with the results from Abich (2013) highlight an alarming problem. The ability of subjective and physiological measures to indicate changes in workload varies across tasks (Abich, 2013) and across domain. A single measure is not able to measure the complex construct of workload across different tasks within the same domain or across domains. This research effort highlights the importance of proper methodology. As researchers, we have to identify the appropriate workload measure for all tasks regardless of the domain by investigating the effectiveness of each measure. The findings of the present study suggest that responsible science include evaluating workload measures before use, not relying on prior research or theory. In other words, results indicate that it is only acceptable to use a measure based on prior findings if research has tested that measure on the exact task and manipulations within that specific domain

Consistency and Consensus Driven for Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Decision Making with Pairwise Comparisons

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is of interest because it provides an efficient way for opinion expression under uncertainty. For enhancing the theory of decision making with HFLPR, the paper introduces an algorithm for group decision making with HFLPRs based on the acceptable consistency and consensus measurements, which involves (1) defining a hesitant fuzzy linguistic geometric consistency index (HFLGCI) and proposing a procedure for consistency checking and inconsistency improving for HFLPR; (2) measuring the group consensus based on the similarity between the original individual HFLPRs and the overall perfect HFLPR, then establishing a procedure for consensus ensuring including the determination of decision-makers weights. The convergence and monotonicity of the proposed two procedures have been proved. Some experiments are furtherly performed to investigate the critical values of the defined HFLGCI, and comparative analyses are conducted to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. A case concerning the performance evaluation of venture capital guiding funds is given to illustrate the availability of the proposed algorithm. As an application of our work, an online decision-making portal is finally provided for decision-makers to utilize the proposed algorithms to solve decision-making problems.Comment: Pulished by Expert Systems with Applications (ISSN: 0957-4174