Salinity hazard mapping and risk assessment in the Bourke irrigation district

At no point in history have we demanded so much from our agricultural land whilst simultaneously leaving so little room for management error. Of the many possible environmental impacts from agriculture, soil and water salinisation has some of the most long-lived and deleterious effects. Despite its importance, however, land managers are often unable to make informed decisions of how to manage the risk of salinisation due to a lack of data. Furthermore, there remains no universally agreed method for salinity risk mapping. This thesis addresses these issues by investigating new methods for producing high-resolution predictions of soil salinity, soil physical properties and groundwater depth using a variety of traditional and emerging ancillary data sources. The results show that the methodologies produce accurate predictions yielding natural resource information at a scale and resolution not previously possible. Further to this, a new methodology using fuzzy logic is developed that exploits this information to produce high-resolution salinity risk maps designed to aid both agricultural and natural resource management decisions. The methodology developed represents a new and effective way of presenting salinity risk and has numerous advantages over conventional risk models. The incorporation of fuzzy logic provides a meaningful continuum of salinity risk and allows for the incorporation of uncertainty. The method also allows salinity risk to be calculated relative to any vegetation community and shows where the risk is coming from (root-zone or groundwater) allowing more appropriate management decisions to be made. The development of this methodology takes us a step closer to closing what some have called our greatest gap in agricultural knowledge. That is, our ability to manage the salinity risk at the subcatchment scale

Approximate Reasoning in Hydrogeological Modeling

The accurate determination of hydraulic conductivity is an important element of successful groundwater flow and transport modeling. However, the exhaustive measurement of this hydrogeological parameter is quite costly and, as a result, unrealistic. Alternatively, relationships between hydraulic conductivity and other hydrogeological variables less costly to measure have been used to estimate this crucial variable whenever needed. Until this point, however, the majority of these relationships have been assumed to be crisp and precise, contrary to what intuition dictates. The research presented herein addresses the imprecision inherent in hydraulic conductivity estimation, framing this process in a fuzzy logic framework. Because traditional hydrogeological practices are not suited to handle fuzzy data, various approaches to incorporating fuzzy data at different steps in the groundwater modeling process have been previously developed. Such approaches have been both redundant and contrary at times, including multiple approaches proposed for both fuzzy kriging and groundwater modeling. This research proposes a consistent rubric for the handling of fuzzy data throughout the entire groundwater modeling process. This entails the estimation of fuzzy data from alternative hydrogeological parameters, the sampling of realizations from fuzzy hydraulic conductivity data, including, most importantly, the appropriate aggregation of expert-provided fuzzy hydraulic conductivity estimates with traditionally-derived hydraulic conductivity measurements, and utilization of this information in the numerical simulation of groundwater flow and transport