12,270 research outputs found
A novel ensemble method for electric vehicle power consumption forecasting: Application to the Spanish system
The use of electric vehicle across the world has become one of the most challenging issues for environmental policies. The galloping climate change and the expected running out of fossil fuels turns the use of such non-polluting cars into a priority for most developed countries. However, such a use has led to major concerns to power companies, since they must adapt their generation to a new scenario, in which electric vehicles will dramatically modify the curve of generation. In this paper, a novel approach based on ensemble learning is proposed. In particular, ARIMA, GARCH and PSF algorithms' performances are used to forecast the electric vehicle power consumption in Spain. It is worth noting that the studied time series of consumption is non-stationary and adds difficulties to the forecasting process. Thus, an ensemble is proposed by dynamically weighting all algorithms over time. The proposal presented has been implemented for a real case, in particular, at the Spanish Control Centre for the Electric Vehicle. The performance of the approach is assessed by means of WAPE, showing robust and promising results for this research field.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad Proyectos ENE2016-77650-R, PCIN-2015-04 y TIN2017-88209-C2-R
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A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration
Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models
Load Forecasting Based Distribution System Network Reconfiguration-A Distributed Data-Driven Approach
In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network
reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support
vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed
to provide an accurate load prediction and benefit the network reconfiguration.
Because of the nonconvexity of the three-phase balanced optimal power flow, a
second-order cone program (SOCP) based approach is used to relax the optimal
power flow problem. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers
(ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner.
Considering the limited number of the switches and the increasing computation
capability, the proposed network reconfiguration is solved in a parallel way.
The numerical results demonstrate the feasible and effectiveness of the
proposed approach.Comment: 5 pages, preprint for Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems, and
Computers 201
Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model
Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in
terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term
electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the
construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load
will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents
first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in
forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of
autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional
variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an
innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S.
regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used
in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by
out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great
economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of
MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed
model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and
out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table
Support Vector Machine in Prediction of Building Energy Demand Using Pseudo Dynamic Approach
Building's energy consumption prediction is a major concern in the recent
years and many efforts have been achieved in order to improve the energy
management of buildings. In particular, the prediction of energy consumption in
building is essential for the energy operator to build an optimal operating
strategy, which could be integrated to building's energy management system
(BEMS). This paper proposes a prediction model for building energy consumption
using support vector machine (SVM). Data-driven model, for instance, SVM is
very sensitive to the selection of training data. Thus the relevant days data
selection method based on Dynamic Time Warping is used to train SVM model. In
addition, to encompass thermal inertia of building, pseudo dynamic model is
applied since it takes into account information of transition of energy
consumption effects and occupancy profile. Relevant days data selection and
whole training data model is applied to the case studies of Ecole des Mines de
Nantes, France Office building. The results showed that support vector machine
based on relevant data selection method is able to predict the energy
consumption of building with a high accuracy in compare to whole data training.
In addition, relevant data selection method is computationally cheaper (around
8 minute training time) in contrast to whole data training (around 31 hour for
weekend and 116 hour for working days) and reveals realistic control
implementation for online system as well.Comment: Proceedings of ECOS 2015-The 28th International Conference on
Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy
Systems , Jun 2015, Pau, Franc
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