Efficient solution selection for two-stage stochastic programs

Sampling-based stochastic programs are extensively applied in practice. However, the resulting models tend to be computationally challenging. A reasonable number of samples needs to be identified to represent the random data, and a group of approximate models can then be constructed using such a number of samples. These approximate models can produce a set of potential solutions for the original model. In this paper, we consider the problem of allocating a finite computational budget among numerous potential solutions of a two-stage linear stochastic program, which aims to identify the best solution among potential ones by conducting simulation under a given computational budget. We propose a two-stage heuristic approach to solve the computational resource allocation problem. First, we utilise a Wasserstein-based screening rule to remove potentially inferior solutions from the simulation. Next, we use a ranking and selection technique to efficiently collect performance information of the remaining solutions. The performance of our approach is demonstrated through well-known benchmark problems. Results show that our method provides good trade-offs between computational effort and solution performance

A primal-dual decomposition based interior point approach to two-stage stochastic linear programming

Decision making under uncertainty is a challenge faced by many decision makers. Stochastic programming is a major tool developed to deal with optimization with uncertainties that has found applications in, e.g. finance, such as asset-liability and bond-portfolio management. Computationally however, many models in stochastic programming remain unsolvable because of overwhelming dimensionality. For a model to be well solvable, its special structure must be explored. Most of the solution methods are based on decomposing the data. In this paper we propose a new decomposition approach for two-stage stochastic programming, based on a direct application of the path-following method combined with the homogeneous self-dual technique. Numerical experiments show that our decomposition algorithm is very efficient for solving stochastic programs. In particular, we apply our deompostition method to a two-period portfolio selection problem using options on a stock index. In this model the investor can invest in a money-market account, a stock index, and European options on this index with different maturities. We experiment our model with market prices of options on the S&P500

Efficient information collection in stochastic optimisation

This thesis focuses on a class of information collection problems in stochastic optimisation. Algorithms in this area often need to measure the performances of several potential solutions, and use the collected information in their search for high-performance solutions, but only have a limited budget for measuring. A simple approach that allocates simulation time equally over all potential solutions may waste time in collecting additional data for the alternatives that can be quickly identified as non-promising. Instead, algorithms should amend their measurement strategy to iteratively examine the statistical evidences collected thus far and focus computational efforts on the most promising alternatives. This thesis develops new efficient methods of collecting information to be used in stochastic optimisation problems. First, we investigate an efficient measurement strategy used for the solution selection procedure of two-stage linear stochastic programs. In the solution selection procedure, finite computational resources must be allocated among numerous potential solutions to estimate their performances and identify the best solution. We propose a two-stage sampling approach that exploits a Wasserstein-based screening rule and an optimal computing budget allocation technique to improve the efficiency of obtaining a high-quality solution. Numerical results show our method provides good trade-offs between computational effort and solution performance. Then, we address the information collection problems that are encountered in the search for robust solutions. Specifically, we use an evolutionary strategy to solve a class of simulation optimisation problems with computationally expensive blackbox functions. We implement an archive sample approximation method to ix reduce the required number of evaluations. The main challenge in the application of this method is determining the locations of additional samples drawn in each generation to enrich the information in the archive and minimise the approximation error. We propose novel sampling strategies by using the Wasserstein metric to estimate the possible benefit of a potential sample location on the approximation error. An empirical comparison with several previously proposed archive-based sample approximation methods demonstrates the superiority of our approaches. In the final part of this thesis, we propose an adaptive sampling strategy for the rollout algorithm to solve the clinical trial scheduling and resource allocation problem under uncertainty. The proposed sampling strategy method exploits the variance reduction technique of common random numbers and the empirical Bernstein inequality in a statistical racing procedure, which can balance the exploration and exploitation of the rollout algorithm. Moreover, we present an augmented approach that utilises a heuristic-based grouping rule to enhance the simulation efficiency by breaking down the overall action selection problem into a selection problem involving small groups. The numerical results show that the proposed method provides competitive results within a reasonable amount of computational time

Theory and Applications of Robust Optimization

In this paper we survey the primary research, both theoretical and applied, in the area of Robust Optimization (RO). Our focus is on the computational attractiveness of RO approaches, as well as the modeling power and broad applicability of the methodology. In addition to surveying prominent theoretical results of RO, we also present some recent results linking RO to adaptable models for multi-stage decision-making problems. Finally, we highlight applications of RO across a wide spectrum of domains, including finance, statistics, learning, and various areas of engineering.Comment: 50 page