Short-term Temporal Dependency Detection under Heterogeneous Event Dynamic with Hawkes Processes

Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact function naturally encodes a causal structure in Granger causality. However, the vast majority of existing methods use direct or nonlinear transform of standard MHP intensity with constant baseline, inconsistent with real-world data. Under irregular and unknown heterogeneous intensity, capturing temporal dependency is hard as one struggles to distinguish the effect of mutual interaction from that of intensity fluctuation. In this paper, we address the short-term temporal dependency detection issue. We show the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for cross-impact from MHP has an error that can not be eliminated but may be reduced by order of magnitude, using heterogeneous intensity not of the target HP but of the interacting HP. Then we proposed a robust and computationally-efficient method modified from MLE that does not rely on the prior estimation of the heterogeneous intensity and is thus applicable in a data-limited regime (e.g., few-shot, no repeated observations). Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our method outperforms existing ones by notable margins, with highlighted novel applications in neuroscience.Comment: Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 202

HitFraud: A Broad Learning Approach for Collective Fraud Detection in Heterogeneous Information Networks

On electronic game platforms, different payment transactions have different levels of risk. Risk is generally higher for digital goods in e-commerce. However, it differs based on product and its popularity, the offer type (packaged game, virtual currency to a game or subscription service), storefront and geography. Existing fraud policies and models make decisions independently for each transaction based on transaction attributes, payment velocities, user characteristics, and other relevant information. However, suspicious transactions may still evade detection and hence we propose a broad learning approach leveraging a graph based perspective to uncover relationships among suspicious transactions, i.e., inter-transaction dependency. Our focus is to detect suspicious transactions by capturing common fraudulent behaviors that would not be considered suspicious when being considered in isolation. In this paper, we present HitFraud that leverages heterogeneous information networks for collective fraud detection by exploring correlated and fast evolving fraudulent behaviors. First, a heterogeneous information network is designed to link entities of interest in the transaction database via different semantics. Then, graph based features are efficiently discovered from the network exploiting the concept of meta-paths, and decisions on frauds are made collectively on test instances. Experiments on real-world payment transaction data from Electronic Arts demonstrate that the prediction performance is effectively boosted by HitFraud with fast convergence where the computation of meta-path based features is largely optimized. Notably, recall can be improved up to 7.93% and F-score 4.62% compared to baselines.Comment: ICDM 201

Resource Constrained Structured Prediction

We study the problem of structured prediction under test-time budget constraints. We propose a novel approach applicable to a wide range of structured prediction problems in computer vision and natural language processing. Our approach seeks to adaptively generate computationally costly features during test-time in order to reduce the computational cost of prediction while maintaining prediction performance. We show that training the adaptive feature generation system can be reduced to a series of structured learning problems, resulting in efficient training using existing structured learning algorithms. This framework provides theoretical justification for several existing heuristic approaches found in literature. We evaluate our proposed adaptive system on two structured prediction tasks, optical character recognition (OCR) and dependency parsing and show strong performance in reduction of the feature costs without degrading accuracy