3,671 research outputs found
Practical Bayesian Modeling and Inference for Massive Spatial Datasets On Modest Computing Environments
With continued advances in Geographic Information Systems and related
computational technologies, statisticians are often required to analyze very
large spatial datasets. This has generated substantial interest over the last
decade, already too vast to be summarized here, in scalable methodologies for
analyzing large spatial datasets. Scalable spatial process models have been
found especially attractive due to their richness and flexibility and,
particularly so in the Bayesian paradigm, due to their presence in hierarchical
model settings. However, the vast majority of research articles present in this
domain have been geared toward innovative theory or more complex model
development. Very limited attention has been accorded to approaches for easily
implementable scalable hierarchical models for the practicing scientist or
spatial analyst. This article is submitted to the Practice section of the
journal with the aim of developing massively scalable Bayesian approaches that
can rapidly deliver Bayesian inference on spatial process that are practically
indistinguishable from inference obtained using more expensive alternatives. A
key emphasis is on implementation within very standard (modest) computing
environments (e.g., a standard desktop or laptop) using easily available
statistical software packages without requiring message-parsing interfaces or
parallel programming paradigms. Key insights are offered regarding assumptions
and approximations concerning practical efficiency.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, 2 table
Penalized additive regression for space-time data: a Bayesian perspective
We propose extensions of penalized spline generalized additive models for analysing space-time regression data and study them from a Bayesian perspective. Non-linear effects of continuous covariates and time trends are modelled through Bayesian versions of penalized splines, while correlated spatial effects follow a Markov random field prior. This allows to treat all functions and effects within a unified general framework by assigning appropriate priors with different forms and degrees of smoothness. Inference can be performed either with full (FB) or empirical Bayes (EB) posterior analysis. FB inference using MCMC techniques is a slight extension of own previous work. For EB inference, a computationally efficient solution is developed on the basis of a generalized linear mixed model representation. The second approach can be viewed as posterior mode estimation and is closely related to penalized likelihood estimation in a frequentist setting. Variance components, corresponding to smoothing parameters, are then estimated by using marginal likelihood. We carefully compare both inferential procedures in simulation studies and illustrate them through real data applications. The methodology is available in the open domain statistical package BayesX and as an S-plus/R function
A Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Statistical Model Motivated by Glaciology
In this paper, we extend and analyze a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal
model for physical systems. A novelty is to model the discrepancy between the
output of a computer simulator for a physical process and the actual process
values with a multivariate random walk. For computational efficiency, linear
algebra for bandwidth limited matrices is utilized, and first-order emulator
inference allows for the fast emulation of a numerical partial differential
equation (PDE) solver. A test scenario from a physical system motivated by
glaciology is used to examine the speed and accuracy of the computational
methods used, in addition to the viability of modeling assumptions. We conclude
by discussing how the model and associated methodology can be applied in other
physical contexts besides glaciology.Comment: Revision accepted for publication by the Journal of Agricultural,
Biological, and Environmental Statistic
TMB: Automatic Differentiation and Laplace Approximation
TMB is an open source R package that enables quick implementation of complex
nonlinear random effect (latent variable) models in a manner similar to the
established AD Model Builder package (ADMB, admb-project.org). In addition, it
offers easy access to parallel computations. The user defines the joint
likelihood for the data and the random effects as a C++ template function,
while all the other operations are done in R; e.g., reading in the data. The
package evaluates and maximizes the Laplace approximation of the marginal
likelihood where the random effects are automatically integrated out. This
approximation, and its derivatives, are obtained using automatic
differentiation (up to order three) of the joint likelihood. The computations
are designed to be fast for problems with many random effects (~10^6) and
parameters (~10^3). Computation times using ADMB and TMB are compared on a
suite of examples ranging from simple models to large spatial models where the
random effects are a Gaussian random field. Speedups ranging from 1.5 to about
100 are obtained with increasing gains for large problems. The package and
examples are available at http://tmb-project.org
Conjugate Bayes for probit regression via unified skew-normal distributions
Regression models for dichotomous data are ubiquitous in statistics. Besides
being useful for inference on binary responses, these methods serve also as
building blocks in more complex formulations, such as density regression,
nonparametric classification and graphical models. Within the Bayesian
framework, inference proceeds by updating the priors for the coefficients,
typically set to be Gaussians, with the likelihood induced by probit or logit
regressions for the responses. In this updating, the apparent absence of a
tractable posterior has motivated a variety of computational methods, including
Markov Chain Monte Carlo routines and algorithms which approximate the
posterior. Despite being routinely implemented, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
strategies face mixing or time-inefficiency issues in large p and small n
studies, whereas approximate routines fail to capture the skewness typically
observed in the posterior. This article proves that the posterior distribution
for the probit coefficients has a unified skew-normal kernel, under Gaussian
priors. Such a novel result allows efficient Bayesian inference for a wide
class of applications, especially in large p and small-to-moderate n studies
where state-of-the-art computational methods face notable issues. These
advances are outlined in a genetic study, and further motivate the development
of a wider class of conjugate priors for probit models along with methods to
obtain independent and identically distributed samples from the unified
skew-normal posterior
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