Bayesian Model Selection for Beta Autoregressive Processes

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate due to the constraints on the parameter space. We provide a full Bayesian approach to the estimation and include the parameter restrictions in the inference problem by a suitable specification of the prior distributions. Moreover in a Bayesian framework parameter estimation and model choice can be solved simultaneously. In particular we suggest a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure based on a Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs algorithm and solve the model selection problem following a reversible jump MCMC approach

Rank-based estimation for all-pass time series models

An autoregressive-moving average model in which all roots of the autoregressive polynomial are reciprocals of roots of the moving average polynomial and vice versa is called an all-pass time series model. All-pass models are useful for identifying and modeling noncausal and noninvertible autoregressive-moving average processes. We establish asymptotic normality and consistency for rank-based estimators of all-pass model parameters. The estimators are obtained by minimizing the rank-based residual dispersion function given by Jaeckel [Ann. Math. Statist. 43 (1972) 1449--1458]. These estimators can have the same asymptotic efficiency as maximum likelihood estimators and are robust. The behavior of the estimators for finite samples is studied via simulation and rank estimation is used in the deconvolution of a simulated water gun seismogram.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001316 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org