Advances in ranking and selection: variance estimation and constraints

In this thesis, we first show that the performance of ranking and selection (R&S) procedures in steady-state simulations depends highly on the quality of the variance estimates that are used. We study the performance of R&S procedures using three variance estimators --- overlapping area, overlapping Cramer--von Mises, and overlapping modified jackknifed Durbin--Watson estimators --- that show better long-run performance than other estimators previously used in conjunction with R&S procedures for steady-state simulations. We devote additional study to the development of the new overlapping modified jackknifed Durbin--Watson estimator and demonstrate some of its useful properties. Next, we consider the problem of finding the best simulated system under a primary performance measure, while also satisfying stochastic constraints on secondary performance measures, known as constrained ranking and selection. We first present a new framework that allows certain systems to become dormant, halting sampling for those systems as the procedure continues. We also develop general procedures for constrained R&S that guarantee a nominal probability of correct selection, under any number of constraints and correlation across systems. In addition, we address new topics critical to efficiency of the these procedures, namely the allocation of error between feasibility check and selection, the use of common random numbers, and the cost of switching between simulated systems.Ph.D.Committee Co-chairs: Sigrun Andradottir, Dave Goldsman and Seong-Hee Kim; Committee Members:Shabbir Ahmed and Brani Vidakovi

Towards a paradigm shift in the modeling of soil organic carbon decomposition for earth system models

Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon pools and contain approximately 2200 Pg of carbon. Thus, the dynamics of soil carbon plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and climate system. Earth System Models are used to project future interactions between terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate. However, these models often predict a wide range of soil carbon responses and their formulations have lagged behind recent soil science advances, omitting key biogeochemical mechanisms. In contrast, recent mechanistically-based biogeochemical models that explicitly account for microbial biomass pools and enzyme kinetics that catalyze soil carbon decomposition produce notably different results and provide a closer match to recent observations. However, a systematic evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the microbial models and how they differ from empirical, first-order formulations in soil decomposition models for soil organic carbon is still needed. This dissertation consists of a series of model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and identifies dominant decomposition processes in determining soil organic carbon dynamics. Poorly constrained processes or parameters that require more experimental data integration are also identified. This dissertation also demonstrates the critical role of microbial life-history traits (e.g. microbial dormancy) in the modeling of microbial activity in soil organic matter decomposition models. Finally, this study surveys and synthesizes a number of recently published microbial models and provides suggestions for future microbial model developments

The potential for liquid biopsies in the precision medical treatment of breast cancer.

Currently the clinical management of breast cancer relies on relatively few prognostic/predictive clinical markers (estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER2), based on primary tumor biology. Circulating biomarkers, such as circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) or circulating tumor cells (CTCs) may enhance our treatment options by focusing on the very cells that are the direct precursors of distant metastatic disease, and probably inherently different than the primary tumor's biology. To shift the current clinical paradigm, assessing tumor biology in real time by molecularly profiling CTCs or ctDNA may serve to discover therapeutic targets, detect minimal residual disease and predict response to treatment. This review serves to elucidate the detection, characterization, and clinical application of CTCs and ctDNA with the goal of precision treatment of breast cancer

Modeling the effect of soil meso- and macropores topology on the biodegradation of a soluble carbon substrate

Soil structure and interactions between biotic and abiotic processes are increasingly recognized as important for explaining the large uncertainties in the outputs of macroscopic SOM decomposition models. We present a numerical analysis to assess the role of meso- and macropore topology on the biodegradation of a soluble carbon substrate in variably water saturated and pure diffusion conditions . Our analysis was built as a complete factorial design and used a new 3D pore-scale model, LBioS, that couples a diffusion Lattice-Boltzmann model and a compartmental biodegradation model. The scenarios combined contrasted modalities of four factors: meso- and macropore space geometry, water saturation, bacterial distribution and physiology. A global sensitivity analysis of these factors highlighted the role of physical factors in the biodegradation kinetics of our scenarios. Bacteria location explained 28% of the total variance in substrate concentration in all scenarios, while the interactions among location, saturation and geometry explained up to 51% of it

Bridging the divide:A model-data approach to Polar and Alpine microbiology

Advances in microbial ecology in the cryosphere continue to be driven by empirical approaches including field sampling and laboratory-based analyses. Although mathematical models are commonly used to investigate the physical dynamics of Polar and Alpine regions, they are rarely applied in microbial studies. Yet integrating modelling approaches with ongoing observational and laboratory-based work is ideally suited to Polar and Alpine microbial ecosystems given their harsh environmental and biogeochemical characteristics, simple trophic structures, distinct seasonality, often difficult accessibility, geographical expansiveness and susceptibility to accelerated climate changes. In this opinion paper, we explain how mathematical modelling ideally complements field and laboratory-based analyses. We thus argue that mathematical modelling is a powerful tool for the investigation of these extreme environments and that fully integrated, interdisciplinary model-data approaches could help the Polar and Alpine microbiology community address some of the great research challenges of the 21st century (e.g. assessing global significance and response to climate change). However, a better integration of field and laboratory work with model design and calibration/validation, as well as a stronger focus on quantitative information is required to advance models that can be used to make predictions and upscale processes and fluxes beyond what can be captured by observations alone.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Large-effect flowering time mutations reveal conditionally adaptive paths through fitness landscapes in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Contrary to previous assumptions that most mutations are deleterious, there is increasing evidence for persistence of large-effect mutations in natural populations. A possible explanation for these observations is that mutant phenotypes and fitness may depend upon the specific environmental conditions to which a mutant is exposed. Here, we tested this hypothesis by growing large-effect flowering time mutants of Arabidopsis thaliana in multiple field sites and seasons to quantify their fitness effects in realistic natural conditions. By constructing environment-specific fitness landscapes based on flowering time and branching architecture, we observed that a subset of mutations increased fitness, but only in specific environments. These mutations increased fitness via different paths: through shifting flowering time, branching, or both. Branching was under stronger selection, but flowering time was more genetically variable, pointing to the importance of indirect selection on mutations through their pleiotropic effects on multiple phenotypes. Finally, mutations in hub genes with greater connectedness in their regulatory networks had greater effects on both phenotypes and fitness. Together, these findings indicate that large-effect mutations may persist in populations because they influence traits that are adaptive only under specific environmental conditions. Understanding their evolutionary dynamics therefore requires measuring their effects in multiple natural environments