Information, Measurement, And Prediction In Economics

This paper examines the flow of production and use of economic information and analyzes the effects of measurement errors, particularly as transmitted through expectations and forecasts. Economic data are subject to a variety of errors, and the uncertainty about economic measures tends to increase further with the amount and complexity of the processing per-formed on the underlying data as well as with the distance between the user and the processor. With some exceptions, economic time series lag significantly behind their reference periods and many undergo large revisions. The effective information lag includes not only the time required for incremental data to be produced and transmitted but also the time required for the signals to be extracted by the user. This lag is substantial for many important series. In general, there is no presumption that the measurement errors are random: Systematic errors are frequent and their sources and forms vary so much that they may be difficult to detect. In times of strong shocks and surprising developments (such as occurred earlier in this decade),measurement of short-term changes in the economy is particularly difficult and current signals are apt to be often misinterpreted. This can result in broadly diffused decision errors which in time are discovered, leading to sharp corrective reactions. Aggregative predictions from well known and influential sources show certain common patterns of error, which suggests that forecasters react similarly to the observed events and unanticipated shocks. Fore-casts of GNP and related variables are adversely affected by errors in both the preliminary data and the base level estimates. There is some support here for the hypothesis that information lags play a significant role ingenerating business cycles, but it is important to note that the errors involved in predicting the future are typically much larger than the errors involved in estimating the present or recent past.

Exploring Evaluation Factors and Framework for the Object of Automated Trading System

Automated trading system (ATS) is a computer program that combines different trading rules to find optimal trading opportunities. The objects of ATS, which are financial assets, need evaluation because that is of great significance for stakeholders and market orders. From the perspectives of dealers, agents, external environment, and objects themselves, this study explored factors in evaluating and choosing the object of ATS. Based on design science research (DSR), we presented a preliminary evaluation framework and conducted semi-structured interviews with twelve trading participants engaged in different occupations. By analyzing the data collected, we validated eight factors from literatures and found four new factors and fifty-four sub-factors. Additionally, this paper developed a relationship model of factors. The results could be used in future work to explore and validate more evaluation factors by using data mining

The Role of Information and Financial Reporting in Corporate Governance and Debt Contracting

We review recent literature on the role of financial reporting transparency in reducing governance-related agency conflicts among managers, directors, and shareholders, as well as in reducing agency conflicts between shareholders and creditors, and offer researchers some suggested avenues for future research. Key themes include the endogenous nature of debt contracts and governance mechanisms with respect to information asymmetry between contracting parties, the heterogeneous nature of the informational demands of contracting parties, and the heterogeneous nature of the resulting governance and debt contracts. We also emphasize the role of a commitment to financial reporting transparency in facilitating informal multiperiod contracts among managers, directors, shareholders, and creditors

The Role of Agriculture and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Farmers, Schooling, and Health

This survey reviews the existing literature, identifying the contribution of agriculture, schooling, and nutrition to economic growth and development over time and across countries. Particular attention is paid to the roles of improvements in agricultural technology and of the human capital of farmers and farm people. Macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence related to the interactions between human capital, productivity and real income per capita have occurred over the past 250 years. We show that for most countries, development is a process of conversion from primarily agrarian economies to urban industrial and service economies. The evidence is that positive technology shocks to agriculture have played a key role in igniting a transition from traditional to modern agriculture and to long-term economic growth in almost all countries. Improvements in agricultural technologies improve labor productivity and create surplus agricultural labor that can provide workers for the growing urban areas. In some cases, improved nutrition helps raise labor productivity and allows individuals to work for longer hours, which makes human capital investments more attractive. The induced improvements in the skill level of a population have major implications for raising living standards, improving health standards, and altering time allocation decisions. In most currently poor and middle income countries, improved schooling has been more important than improved nutrition or caloric intake in explaining recent economic growth. Nevertheless, the poorest countries of the world continue to have a large share of their labor force in agriculture, and growth cannot occur until they experience their own agricultural transformation.

Repayment versus Investment Conditions and Exclusivity in Lending Contracts

Lenders condition future loans on some index of past performance. Typically, banks condition future loans on repayments of earlier obligations whilst international organizations (official lenders) condition future loans on the implementation of some policy action (‘investment’). We build an agency model that accounts for these tendencies. The optimal conditionality contract depends on exclusivity – the likelihood that a borrower who has been denied funds from the original lenders can access funds from other lenders.repayment conditions, investment conditions, long-term loans, exclusivity

Space mission risk, sustainability and supply chain: review, multi-objective optimization model and practical approach

This paper investigates the convergence of risk, sustainability, and supply chain in space missions, including a review of fundamental concepts, the introduction of a multi-objective conceptual optimization model, and the presentation of a practical approach. Risks associated with space missions include technical, human, launch, space environment, mission design, budgetary, and political risks. Sustainability considerations must be incorporated into mission planning and execution to ensure the long-term viability of space exploration. The study emphasizes the importance of considering environmental sustainability, resource use, ethical concerns, long-term planning, international collaboration, and public outreach in space missions. It emphasizes the significance of reducing negative environmental consequences, increasing resource use efficiency, and making responsible and ethical actions. The paper offers a multi-objective optimization conceptual model that may be used to evaluate and choose sustainable space mission tactics. This approach considers a variety of elements, including environmental effects, resource utilization, mission cost, and advantages for society. It provides a systematic decision-making approach that examines trade-offs between different criteria and identifies optimal conceptual model solutions that balance risk, sustainability, and supply chain objectives. A practical approach is also offered to demonstrate the use of the multi-criteria optimization conceptual model in a space mission scenario. The practical approach demonstrates how the model can aid in the development of mission strategies that minimize risks, maximize resource consumption, and fit with sustainability goals. Overall, this paper delivers a multi-criteria optimization conceptual model and provides a space mission planning practical approach, as well as an overview of the interaction between risk, sustainability, and supply chain in space mission organization, planning, and execution.This research was partially supported by the AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland (16.16.200.396) and the financial aid of the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (MNISW) grants (N N519 405934; 6459/B/T02/2011/40) and the Polish National Science Centre (NCN) research grant (DEC-2013/11/B/ST8/04458). Moreover, I appreciate the support of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities (RED2018-102642-T; RED2022-134703-T; PID2019-111100RB-C22/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). Additionally, I acknowledge the support from the Public University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain and the University of California at Berkeley, USA. The research was also partially supported by the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Marie-Skłodowska Curie, No: 101034285

Improvement of lake water quality by paying farmers to abate nonpoint source pollution

To mitigate damages caused by agricultural runoff, private lake owners' associations are paying for inlake and instream pollution abatement measures and onland conservation practices. This phenomenon supports the notion that individuals who benefit from improved water quality should be willing to pay part of the abatement costs. Our research suggests that onland conservation measures can substantially reduce sediment delivery at low cost. The Sediment Economics (SEDEC) model was modified and then used to select and to site management systems that achieved stated sediment goals at least cost. Other resource policies such as T value, no-till, and contouring were compared with the least-cost frontier and shown to be more costly. Abatement costs decreased substantially and sediment delivery increased only slightly when the same resource policies were applied to cropland areas closest to water channels. The research also pointed out the importance of noncropland areas adjacent to water channels. The noncropland areas substantially reduced sediment delivery to water channels and lowered abatement costs. Further research is needed for long-range watershed planning models such as SEDEC. More work is needed on the modelling of physical processes, particularly sediment delivery. The model also needs to be repackaged into a user-friendly format.U.S. Department of the Interior || U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Geological SurveyOpe