Social network monitoring for bursty cascade detection

Singapore National Research Foundation under International Research Centres in Singapore Funding Initiativ

Transmission Modeling with Smartphone-based Sensing

Infectious disease spread is difficult to accurately measure and model. Even for well-studied pathogens, uncertainties remain regarding the dynamics of mixing behavior and how to balance simulation-generated estimates with empirical data. Smartphone-based sensing data promises the availability of inferred proximate contacts, with which we can improve transmission models. This dissertation addresses the problem of informing transmission models with proximity contact data by breaking it down into three sub-questions. Firstly, can proximity contact data inform transmission models? To this question, an extended-Kalman-filter enhanced System Dynamics Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (EKF-SD-SIR) model demonstrated the filtering approach, as a framework, for informing Systems Dynamics models with proximity contact data. This combination results in recurrently-regrounded system status as empirical data arrive throughout disease transmission simulations---simultaneously considering empirical data accuracy, growing simulation error between measurements, and supporting estimation of changing model parameters. However, as revealed by this investigation, this filtering approach is limited by the quality and reliability of sensing-informed proximate contacts, which leads to the dissertation's second and third questions---investigating the impact of temporal and spatial resolution on sensing inferred proximity contact data for transmission models. GPS co-location and Bluetooth beaconing are two of those common measurement modalities to sense proximity contacts with different underlying technologies and tradeoffs. However, both measurement modalities have shortcomings and are prone to false positives or negatives when used to detect proximate contacts because unmeasured environmental influences bias the data. Will differences in sensing modalities impact transmission models informed by proximity contact data? The second part of this dissertation compares GPS- and Bluetooth-inferred proximate contacts by accessing their impact on simulated attack rates in corresponding proximate-contact-informed agent-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (ABM-SEIR) models of four distinct contagious diseases. Results show that the inferred proximate contacts resulting from these two measurement modalities are different and give rise to significantly different attack rates across multiple data collections and pathogens. While the advent of commodity mobile devices has eased the collection of proximity contact data, battery capacity and associated costs impose tradeoffs between the frequency and scanning duration used for proximate-contact detection. The choice of a balanced sensing regime involves specifying temporal resolutions and interpreting sensing data---depending on circumstances such as the characteristics of a particular pathogen, accompanying disease, and underlying population. How will the temporal resolution of sensing impact transmission models informed by proximity contact data? Furthermore, how will circumstances alter the impact of temporal resolution? The third part of this dissertation investigates the impacts of sensing regimes on findings from two sampling methods of sensing at widely varying inter-observation intervals by synthetically downsampling proximity contact data from five contact network studies---with each of these five studies measuring participant-participant contact every 5 minutes for durations of four or more weeks. The impact of downsampling is evaluated through ABM-SEIR simulations from both population- and individual-level for 12 distinct contagious diseases and associated variants of concern. Studies in this part find that for epidemiological models employing proximity contact data, both the observation paradigms and the inter-observation interval configured to collect proximity contact data exert impacts on the simulation results. Moreover, the impact is subject to the population characteristics and pathogen infectiousness reflective (such as the basic reproduction number, $R_0$). By comparing the performance of two sampling methods of sensing, we found that in most cases, periodically observing for a certain duration can collect proximity contact data that allows agent-based models to produce a reasonable estimation of the attack rate. However, higher-resolution data are preferred for modeling individual infection risk. Findings from this part of the dissertation represent a step towards providing the empirical basis for guidelines to inform data collection that is at once efficient and effective. This dissertation addresses the problem of informing transmission models with proximity contact data in three steps. Firstly, the demonstration of an EKF-SD-SIR model suggests that the filtering approach could improve System Dynamics transmission models by leveraging proximity contact data. In addition, experiments with the EKF-SD-SIR model also revealed that the filtering approach is constrained by the limited quality and reliability of sensing-data-inferred proximate contacts. The following two parts of this dissertation investigate spatial-temporal factors that could impact the quality and reliability of sensor-collected proximity contact data. In the second step, the impact of spatial resolution is illustrated by differences between two typical sensing modalities---Bluetooth beaconing versus GPS co-location. Experiments show that, in general, proximity contact data collected with Bluetooth beaconing lead to transmission models with results different from those driven by proximity contact data collected with GPS co-location. Awareness of the differences between sensing modalities can aid researchers in incorporating proximity contact data into transmission models. Finally, in the third step, the impact of temporal resolution is elucidated by investigating the differences between results of transmission models led by proximity contact data collected with varying observation frequencies. These differences led by varying observation frequencies are evaluated under circumstances with alternative assumptions regarding sampling method, disease/pathogen type, and the underlying population. Experiments show that the impact of sensing regimes is influenced by the type of diseases/pathogens and underlying population, while sampling once in a while can be a decent choice across all situations. This dissertation demonstrated the value of a filtering approach to enhance transmission models with sensor-collected proximity contact data, as well as explored spatial-temporal factors that will impact the accuracy and reliability of sensor-collected proximity contact data. Furthermore, this dissertation suggested guidance for future sensor-based proximity contact data collection and highlighted needs and opportunities for further research on sensing-inferred proximity contact data for transmission models

High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications

This open access book was prepared as a Final Publication of the COST Action IC1406 “High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet)“ project. Long considered important pillars of the scientific method, Modelling and Simulation have evolved from traditional discrete numerical methods to complex data-intensive continuous analytical optimisations. Resolution, scale, and accuracy have become essential to predict and analyse natural and complex systems in science and engineering. When their level of abstraction raises to have a better discernment of the domain at hand, their representation gets increasingly demanding for computational and data resources. On the other hand, High Performance Computing typically entails the effective use of parallel and distributed processing units coupled with efficient storage, communication and visualisation systems to underpin complex data-intensive applications in distinct scientific and technical domains. It is then arguably required to have a seamless interaction of High Performance Computing with Modelling and Simulation in order to store, compute, analyse, and visualise large data sets in science and engineering. Funded by the European Commission, cHiPSet has provided a dynamic trans-European forum for their members and distinguished guests to openly discuss novel perspectives and topics of interests for these two communities. This cHiPSet compendium presents a set of selected case studies related to healthcare, biological data, computational advertising, multimedia, finance, bioinformatics, and telecommunications

Current Perspectives on Viral Disease Outbreaks

The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world that infectious diseases are still important. The last 40 years have experienced the emergence of new or resurging viral diseases such as AIDS, ebola, MERS, SARS, Zika, and others. These diseases display diverse epidemiologies ranging from sexual transmission to vector-borne transmission (or both, in the case of Zika). This book provides an overview of recent developments in the detection, monitoring, treatment, and control of several viral diseases that have caused recent epidemics or pandemics

Women in Artificial intelligence (AI)

This Special Issue, entitled "Women in Artificial Intelligence" includes 17 papers from leading women scientists. The papers cover a broad scope of research areas within Artificial Intelligence, including machine learning, perception, reasoning or planning, among others. The papers have applications to relevant fields, such as human health, finance, or education. It is worth noting that the Issue includes three papers that deal with different aspects of gender bias in Artificial Intelligence. All the papers have a woman as the first author. We can proudly say that these women are from countries worldwide, such as France, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Australia, Bangladesh, Yemen, Romania, India, Cuba, Bangladesh and Spain. In conclusion, apart from its intrinsic scientific value as a Special Issue, combining interesting research works, this Special Issue intends to increase the invisibility of women in AI, showing where they are, what they do, and how they contribute to developments in Artificial Intelligence from their different places, positions, research branches and application fields. We planned to issue this book on the on Ada Lovelace Day (11/10/2022), a date internationally dedicated to the first computer programmer, a woman who had to fight the gender difficulties of her times, in the XIX century. We also thank the publisher for making this possible, thus allowing for this book to become a part of the international activities dedicated to celebrating the value of women in ICT all over the world. With this book, we want to pay homage to all the women that contributed over the years to the field of AI