12,990 research outputs found
Efficient Simulation and Conditional Functional Limit Theorems for Ruinous Heavy-tailed Random Walks
The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based
techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes.
Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting
a mixture form. We exploit our methodology to achieve two types of results.
First, we construct Monte Carlo estimators that are strongly efficient (i.e.
have bounded relative mean squared error as the event of interest becomes
rare). These estimators are used to estimate both rare-event probabilities of
interest and associated conditional expectations. We emphasize that our
techniques allow us to control the expected termination time of the Monte Carlo
algorithm even if the conditional expected stopping time (under the original
distribution) given the event of interest is infinity -- a situation that
sometimes occurs in heavy-tailed settings. Second, the mixture family serves as
a good approximation (in total variation) of the conditional distribution of
the whole process given the rare event of interest. The convenient form of the
mixture family allows us to obtain, as a corollary, functional conditional
central limit theorems that extend classical results in the literature. We
illustrate our methodology in the context of the ruin probability , where is a random walk with heavy-tailed increments that have
negative drift. Our techniques are based on the use of Lyapunov inequalities
for variance control and termination time. The conditional limit theorems
combine the application of Lyapunov bounds with coupling arguments
Fast Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for sparse Bayesian inference in high-dimensional inverse problems using L1-type priors
Sparsity has become a key concept for solving of high-dimensional inverse
problems using variational regularization techniques. Recently, using similar
sparsity-constraints in the Bayesian framework for inverse problems by encoding
them in the prior distribution has attracted attention. Important questions
about the relation between regularization theory and Bayesian inference still
need to be addressed when using sparsity promoting inversion. A practical
obstacle for these examinations is the lack of fast posterior sampling
algorithms for sparse, high-dimensional Bayesian inversion: Accessing the full
range of Bayesian inference methods requires being able to draw samples from
the posterior probability distribution in a fast and efficient way. This is
usually done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms. In this
article, we develop and examine a new implementation of a single component
Gibbs MCMC sampler for sparse priors relying on L1-norms. We demonstrate that
the efficiency of our Gibbs sampler increases when the level of sparsity or the
dimension of the unknowns is increased. This property is contrary to the
properties of the most commonly applied Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampling
schemes: We demonstrate that the efficiency of MH schemes for L1-type priors
dramatically decreases when the level of sparsity or the dimension of the
unknowns is increased. Practically, Bayesian inversion for L1-type priors using
MH samplers is not feasible at all. As this is commonly believed to be an
intrinsic feature of MCMC sampling, the performance of our Gibbs sampler also
challenges common beliefs about the applicability of sample based Bayesian
inference.Comment: 33 pages, 14 figure
Langevin and Hamiltonian based Sequential MCMC for Efficient Bayesian Filtering in High-dimensional Spaces
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in
statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful
and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)
algorithm, also known as particle filtering. Nevertheless, this method tends to
be inefficient when applied to high dimensional problems. In this paper, we
focus on another class of sequential inference methods, namely the Sequential
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) techniques, which represent a promising
alternative to SMC methods. After providing a unifying framework for the class
of SMCMC approaches, we propose novel efficient strategies based on the
principle of Langevin diffusion and Hamiltonian dynamics in order to cope with
the increasing number of high-dimensional applications. Simulation results show
that the proposed algorithms achieve significantly better performance compared
to existing algorithms
Approximately Sampling Elements with Fixed Rank in Graded Posets
Graded posets frequently arise throughout combinatorics, where it is natural
to try to count the number of elements of a fixed rank. These counting problems
are often -complete, so we consider approximation algorithms for
counting and uniform sampling. We show that for certain classes of posets,
biased Markov chains that walk along edges of their Hasse diagrams allow us to
approximately generate samples with any fixed rank in expected polynomial time.
Our arguments do not rely on the typical proofs of log-concavity, which are
used to construct a stationary distribution with a specific mode in order to
give a lower bound on the probability of outputting an element of the desired
rank. Instead, we infer this directly from bounds on the mixing time of the
chains through a method we call .
A noteworthy application of our method is sampling restricted classes of
integer partitions of . We give the first provably efficient Markov chain
algorithm to uniformly sample integer partitions of from general restricted
classes. Several observations allow us to improve the efficiency of this chain
to require space, and for unrestricted integer partitions,
expected time. Related applications include sampling permutations
with a fixed number of inversions and lozenge tilings on the triangular lattice
with a fixed average height.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figure
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