IST Austria Thesis

This dissertation concerns the automatic verification of probabilistic systems and programs with arrays by statistical and logical methods. Although statistical and logical methods are different in nature, we show that they can be successfully combined for system analysis. In the first part of the dissertation we present a new statistical algorithm for the verification of probabilistic systems with respect to unbounded properties, including linear temporal logic. Our algorithm often performs faster than the previous approaches, and at the same time requires less information about the system. In addition, our method can be generalized to unbounded quantitative properties such as mean-payoff bounds. In the second part, we introduce two techniques for comparing probabilistic systems. Probabilistic systems are typically compared using the notion of equivalence, which requires the systems to have the equal probability of all behaviors. However, this notion is often too strict, since probabilities are typically only empirically estimated, and any imprecision may break the relation between processes. On the one hand, we propose to replace the Boolean notion of equivalence by a quantitative distance of similarity. For this purpose, we introduce a statistical framework for estimating distances between Markov chains based on their simulation runs, and we investigate which distances can be approximated in our framework. On the other hand, we propose to compare systems with respect to a new qualitative logic, which expresses that behaviors occur with probability one or a positive probability. This qualitative analysis is robust with respect to modeling errors and applicable to many domains. In the last part, we present a new quantifier-free logic for integer arrays, which allows us to express counting. Counting properties are prevalent in array-manipulating programs, however they cannot be expressed in the quantified fragments of the theory of arrays. We present a decision procedure for our logic, and provide several complexity results

Formal Methods for Probabilistic Energy Models

The energy consumption that arises from the utilisation of information processing systems adds a significant contribution to environmental pollution and has a big share of operation costs. This entails that we need to find ways to reduce the energy consumption of such systems. When trying to save energy it is important to ensure that the utility (e.g., user experience) of a system is not unnecessarily degraded, requiring a careful trade-off analysis between the consumed energy and the resulting utility. Therefore, research on energy efficiency has become a very active and important research topic that concerns many different scientific areas, and is as well of interest for industrial companies. The concept of quantiles is already well-known in mathematical statistics, but its benefits for the formal quantitative analysis of probabilistic systems have been noticed only recently. For instance, with the help of quantiles it is possible to reason about the minimal energy that is required to obtain a desired system behaviour in a satisfactory manner, e.g., a required user experience will be achieved with a sufficient probability. Quantiles also allow the determination of the maximal utility that can be achieved with a reasonable probability while staying within a given energy budget. As those examples illustrate important measures that are of interest when analysing energy-aware systems, it is clear that it is beneficial to extend formal analysis-methods with possibilities for the calculation of quantiles. In this monograph, we will see how we can take advantage of those quantiles as an instrument for analysing the trade-off between energy and utility in the field of probabilistic model checking. Therefore, we present algorithms for their computation over Markovian models. We will further investigate different techniques in order to improve the computational performance of implementations of those algorithms. The main feature that enables those improvements takes advantage of the specific characteristics of the linear programs that need to be solved for the computation of quantiles. Those improved algorithms have been implemented and integrated into the well-known probabilistic model checker PRISM. The performance of this implementation is then demonstrated by means of different protocols with an emphasis on the trade-off between the consumed energy and the resulting utility. Since the introduced methods are not restricted to the case of an energy-utility analysis only, the proposed framework can be used for analysing the interplay of cost and its resulting benefit in general.:1 Introduction 1.1 Related work 1.2 Contribution and outline 2 Preliminaries 3 Reward-bounded reachability properties and quantiles 3.1 Essentials 3.2 Dualities 3.3 Upper-reward bounded quantiles 3.3.1 Precomputation 3.3.2 Computation scheme 3.3.3 Qualitative quantiles 3.4 Lower-reward bounded quantiles 3.4.1 Precomputation 3.4.2 Computation scheme 3.5 Energy-utility quantiles 3.6 Quantiles under side conditions 3.6.1 Upper reward bounds 3.6.2 Lower reward bounds 3.6.2.1 Maximal reachability probabilities 3.6.2.2 Minimal reachability probabilities 3.7 Reachability quantiles and continuous time 3.7.1 Dualities 4 Expectation Quantiles 4.1 Computation scheme 4.2 Arbitrary models 4.2.1 Existential expectation quantiles 4.2.2 Universal expectation quantiles 5 Implementation 5.1 Computation optimisations 5.1.1 Back propagation 5.1.2 Reward window 5.1.3 Topological sorting of zero-reward sub-MDPs 5.1.4 Parallel computations 5.1.5 Multi-thresholds 5.1.6 Multi-state solution methods 5.1.7 Storage for integer sets 5.1.8 Elimination of zero-reward self-loops 5.2 Integration in Prism 5.2.1 Computation of reward-bounded reachability probabilities 5.2.2 Computation of quantiles in CTMCs 6 Analysed Protocols 6.1 Prism Benchmark Suite 6.1.1 Self-Stabilising Protocol 6.1.2 Leader-Election Protocol 6.1.3 Randomised Consensus Shared Coin Protocol 6.2 Energy-Aware Protocols 6.2.1 Energy-Aware Job-Scheduling Protocol 6.2.1.1 Energy-Aware Job-Scheduling Protocol with side conditions 6.2.1.2 Energy-Aware Job-Scheduling Protocol and expectation quantiles 6.2.1.3 Multiple shared resources 6.2.2 Energy-Aware Bonding Network Device (eBond) 6.2.3 HAECubie Demonstrator 6.2.3.1 Operational behaviour of the protocol 6.2.3.2 Formal analysis 7 Conclusion 7.1 Classification 7.2 Future prospects Bibliography List of Figures List of Table

Bayesian image restoration and bacteria detection in optical endomicroscopy

Optical microscopy systems can be used to obtain high-resolution microscopic images of tissue cultures and ex vivo tissue samples. This imaging technique can be translated for in vivo, in situ applications by using optical fibres and miniature optics. Fibred optical endomicroscopy (OEM) can enable optical biopsy in organs inaccessible by any other imaging systems, and hence can provide rapid and accurate diagnosis in a short time. The raw data the system produce is difficult to interpret as it is modulated by a fibre bundle pattern, producing what is called the “honeycomb effect”. Moreover, the data is further degraded due to the fibre core cross coupling problem. On the other hand, there is an unmet clinical need for automatic tools that can help the clinicians to detect fluorescently labelled bacteria in distal lung images. The aim of this thesis is to develop advanced image processing algorithms that can address the above mentioned problems. First, we provide a statistical model for the fibre core cross coupling problem and the sparse sampling by imaging fibre bundles (honeycomb artefact), which are formulated here as a restoration problem for the first time in the literature. We then introduce a non-linear interpolation method, based on Gaussian processes regression, in order to recover an interpretable scene from the deconvolved data. Second, we develop two bacteria detection algorithms, each of which provides different characteristics. The first approach considers joint formulation to the sparse coding and anomaly detection problems. The anomalies here are considered as candidate bacteria, which are annotated with the help of a trained clinician. Although this approach provides good detection performance and outperforms existing methods in the literature, the user has to carefully tune some crucial model parameters. Hence, we propose a more adaptive approach, for which a Bayesian framework is adopted. This approach not only outperforms the proposed supervised approach and existing methods in the literature but also provides computation time that competes with optimization-based methods

Multifractal analysis for multivariate data with application to remote sensing

Texture characterization is a central element in many image processing applications. Texture analysis can be embedded in the mathematical framework of multifractal analysis, enabling the study of the fluctuations in regularity of image intensity and providing practical tools for their assessment, the coefficients or wavelet leaders. Although successfully applied in various contexts, multi fractal analysis suffers at present from two major limitations. First, the accurate estimation of multifractal parameters for image texture remains a challenge, notably for small sample sizes. Second, multifractal analysis has so far been limited to the analysis of a single image, while the data available in applications are increasingly multivariate. The main goal of this thesis is to develop practical contributions to overcome these limitations. The first limitation is tackled by introducing a generic statistical model for the logarithm of wavelet leaders, parametrized by multifractal parameters of interest. This statistical model enables us to counterbalance the variability induced by small sample sizes and to embed the estimation in a Bayesian framework. This yields robust and accurate estimation procedures, effective both for small and large images. The multifractal analysis of multivariate images is then addressed by generalizing this Bayesian framework to hierarchical models able to account for the assumption that multifractal properties evolve smoothly in the dataset. This is achieved via the design of suitable priors relating the dynamical properties of the multifractal parameters of the different components composing the dataset. Different priors are investigated and compared in this thesis by means of numerical simulations conducted on synthetic multivariate multifractal images. This work is further completed by the investigation of the potential benefit of multifractal analysis and the proposed Bayesian methodology for remote sensing via the example of hyperspectral imaging

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Likelihood-based Density Estimation using Deep Architectures

Multivariate density estimation is a central problem in unsupervised machine learning that has been studied immensely in both statistics and machine learning. Several methods have thus been proposed for density estimation including classical techniques like histograms, kernel density estimation methods, mixture models, and more recently neural density estimation that leverages the recent advances in deep learning and neural networks to tractably represent a density function. In today's age, when large amounts of data are being generated in almost every field, it is of paramount importance to develop density estimation methods that are cheap both computationally and in memory cost. The main contribution of this thesis is in providing a principled study of parametric density estimation methods using mixture models and triangular maps for neural density estimation. The first part of the thesis focuses on the compact representation of mixture models using deep architectures like latent tree models, hidden Markov models, tensorial mixture models, hierarchical tensor formats and sum-product networks. It provides a unifying view of possible representations of mixture models using such deep architectures. The unifying view allows us to prove exponential separation between deep mixture models and mixture models represented using shallow architectures, demonstrating the benefits of depth in their representation. In a surprising result thereafter, we prove that a deep mixture model can be approximated using the conditional gradient algorithm by a shallow architecture of polynomial size w.r.t. the inverse of the approximation accuracy. Next, we address the more practical problem of density estimation of mixture models for streaming data by proposing an online Bayesian Moment Matching algorithm for Gaussian mixture models that can be distributed over several processors for fast computation. Exact Bayesian learning of mixture models is intractable because the number of terms in the posterior grows exponentially w.r.t. to the number of observations. We circumvent this problem by projecting the exact posterior on to a simple family of densities by matching a set of sufficient moments. Subsequently, we extend this algorithm for sequential data modeling using transfer learning by learning a hidden Markov model over the observations with Gaussian mixtures. We apply this algorithm on three diverse applications of activity recognition based on smartphone sensors, sleep stage classification for predicting neurological disorders using electroencephalography data and network size prediction for telecommunication networks. In the second part, we focus on neural density estimation methods where we provide a unified framework for estimating densities using monotone and bijective triangular maps represented using deep neural networks. Using this unified framework we study the limitations and representation power of recent flow based and autoregressive methods. Based on this framework, we subsequently propose a novel Sum-of-Squares polynomial flow that is interpretable, universal and easy to trai

LIPIcs, Volume 261, ICALP 2023, Complete Volume

LIPIcs, Volume 261, ICALP 2023, Complete Volum