Demonstration of Enhanced Monte Carlo Computation of the Fisher Information for Complex Problems

The Fisher information matrix summarizes the amount of information in a set of data relative to the quantities of interest. There are many applications of the information matrix in statistical modeling, system identification and parameter estimation. This short paper reviews a feedback-based method and an independent perturbation approach for computing the information matrix for complex problems, where a closed form of the information matrix is not achievable. We show through numerical examples how these methods improve the accuracy of the estimate of the information matrix compared to the basic resampling-based approach. Some relevant theory is summarized

Riemann-Langevin Particle Filtering in Track-Before-Detect

Track-before-detect (TBD) is a powerful approach that consists in providing the tracker with sensor measurements directly without pre-detection. Due to the measurement model non-linearities, online state estimation in TBD is most commonly solved via particle filtering. Existing particle filters for TBD do not incorporate measurement information in their proposal distribution. The Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) is a sampling method whose proposal is able to exploit all available knowledge of the posterior (that is, both prior and measurement information). This letter synthesizes recent advances in LMC-based filtering to describe the Riemann-Langevin particle filter and introduces its novel application to TBD. The benefits of our approach are illustrated in a challenging low-noise scenario.Comment: Minor grammatical update

Efficient Cosmological Parameter Estimation from Microwave Background Anisotropies

We revisit the issue of cosmological parameter estimation in light of current and upcoming high-precision measurements of the cosmic microwave background power spectrum. Physical quantities which determine the power spectrum are reviewed, and their connection to familiar cosmological parameters is explicated. We present a set of physical parameters, analytic functions of the usual cosmological parameters, upon which the microwave background power spectrum depends linearly (or with some other simple dependence) over a wide range of parameter values. With such a set of parameters, microwave background power spectra can be estimated with high accuracy and negligible computational effort, vastly increasing the efficiency of cosmological parameter error determination. The techniques presented here allow calculation of microwave background power spectra $10^5$ times faster than comparably accurate direct codes (after precomputing a handful of power spectra). We discuss various issues of parameter estimation, including parameter degeneracies, numerical precision, mapping between physical and cosmological parameters, and systematic errors, and illustrate these considerations with an idealized model of the MAP experiment.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figure

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Acceleration Using Surrogate Functions with Random Bases

For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an efficient and scalable computational technique for a state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, namely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The key idea is to explore and exploit the structure and regularity in parameter space for the underlying probabilistic model to construct an effective approximation of its geometric properties. To this end, we build a surrogate function to approximate the target distribution using properly chosen random bases and an efficient optimization process. The resulting method provides a flexible, scalable, and efficient sampling algorithm, which converges to the correct target distribution. We show that by choosing the basis functions and optimization process differently, our method can be related to other approaches for the construction of surrogate functions such as generalized additive models or Gaussian process models. Experiments based on simulated and real data show that our approach leads to substantially more efficient sampling algorithms compared to existing state-of-the art methods

Computing the Cramer-Rao bound of Markov random field parameters: Application to the Ising and the Potts models

This report considers the problem of computing the Cramer-Rao bound for the parameters of a Markov random field. Computation of the exact bound is not feasible for most fields of interest because their likelihoods are intractable and have intractable derivatives. We show here how it is possible to formulate the computation of the bound as a statistical inference problem that can be solve approximately, but with arbitrarily high accuracy, by using a Monte Carlo method. The proposed methodology is successfully applied on the Ising and the Potts models.% where it is used to assess the performance of three state-of-the art estimators of the parameter of these Markov random fields

Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard random-walk proposals. The popularity of such methods has grown significantly in recent years. However, a limitation of HMC methods is the required gradient computation for simulation of the Hamiltonian dynamical system-such computation is infeasible in problems involving a large sample size or streaming data. Instead, we must rely on a noisy gradient estimate computed from a subset of the data. In this paper, we explore the properties of such a stochastic gradient HMC approach. Surprisingly, the natural implementation of the stochastic approximation can be arbitrarily bad. To address this problem we introduce a variant that uses second-order Langevin dynamics with a friction term that counteracts the effects of the noisy gradient, maintaining the desired target distribution as the invariant distribution. Results on simulated data validate our theory. We also provide an application of our methods to a classification task using neural networks and to online Bayesian matrix factorization.Comment: ICML 2014 versio

On optimality of kernels for approximate Bayesian computation using sequential Monte Carlo

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has gained popularity over the past few years for the analysis of complex models arising in population genetics, epidemiology and system biology. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approaches have become work-horses in ABC. Here we discuss how to construct the perturbation kernels that are required in ABC SMC approaches, in order to construct a sequence of distributions that start out from a suitably defined prior and converge towards the unknown posterior. We derive optimality criteria for different kernels, which are based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a distribution and the distribution of the perturbed particles. We will show that for many complicated posterior distributions, locally adapted kernels tend to show the best performance. We find that the added moderate cost of adapting kernel functions is easily regained in terms of the higher acceptance rate. We demonstrate the computational efficiency gains in a range of toy examples which illustrate some of the challenges faced in real-world applications of ABC, before turning to two demanding parameter inference problems in molecular biology, which highlight the huge increases in efficiency that can be gained from choice of optimal kernels. We conclude with a general discussion of the rational choice of perturbation kernels in ABC SMC settings