Predicting the Future is like Completing a Painting!

This article is an introductory work towards a larger research framework relative to Scientific Prediction. It is a mixed between science and philosophy of science, therefore we can talk about Experimental Philosophy of Science. As a first result, we introduce a new forecasting method based on image completion, named Forecasting Method by Image Inpainting (FM2I). In fact, time series forecasting is transformed into fully images- and signal-based processing procedures. After transforming a time series data into its corresponding image, the problem of data forecasting becomes essentially a problem of image inpainting problem, i.e., completing missing data in the image. An extensive experimental evaluation is conducted using a large dataset proposed by the well-known M3-competition. Results show that FM2I represents an efficient and robust tool for time series forecasting. It has achieved prominent results in terms of accuracy and outperforms the best M3 forecasting methods.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

Data Consistency for Data-Driven Smart Energy Assessment

In the smart grid era, the number of data available for different applications has increased considerably. However, data could not perfectly represent the phenomenon or process under analysis, so their usability requires a preliminary validation carried out by experts of the specific domain. The process of data gathering and transmission over the communication channels has to be verified to ensure that data are provided in a useful format, and that no external effect has impacted on the correct data to be received. Consistency of the data coming from different sources (in terms of timings and data resolution) has to be ensured and managed appropriately. Suitable procedures are needed for transforming data into knowledge in an effective way. This contribution addresses the previous aspects by highlighting a number of potential issues and the solutions in place in different power and energy system, including the generation, grid and user sides. Recent references, as well as selected historical references, are listed to support the illustration of the conceptual aspects

Multi-modal Skill Memories for Online Learning of Interactive Robot Movement Generation

Queißer J. Multi-modal Skill Memories for Online Learning of Interactive Robot Movement Generation. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld; 2018.Modern robotic applications pose complex requirements with respect to the adaptation of actions regarding the variability in a given task. Reinforcement learning can optimize for changing conditions, but relearning from scratch is hardly feasible due to the high number of required rollouts. This work proposes a parameterized skill that generalizes to new actions for changing task parameters. The actions are encoded by a meta-learner that provides parameters for task-specific dynamic motion primitives. Experimental evaluation shows that the utilization of parameterized skills for initialization of the optimization process leads to a more effective incremental task learning. A proposed hybrid optimization method combines a fast coarse optimization on a manifold of policy parameters with a fine-grained parameter search in the unrestricted space of actions. It is shown that the developed algorithm reduces the number of required rollouts for adaptation to new task conditions. Further, this work presents a transfer learning approach for adaptation of learned skills to new situations. Application in illustrative toy scenarios, for a 10-DOF planar arm, a humanoid robot point reaching task and parameterized drumming on a pneumatic robot validate the approach. But parameterized skills that are applied on complex robotic systems pose further challenges: the dynamics of the robot and the interaction with the environment introduce model inaccuracies. In particular, high-level skill acquisition on highly compliant robotic systems such as pneumatically driven or soft actuators is hardly feasible. Since learning of the complete dynamics model is not feasible due to the high complexity, this thesis examines two alternative approaches: First, an improvement of the low-level control based on an equilibrium model of the robot. Utilization of an equilibrium model reduces the learning complexity and this thesis evaluates its applicability for control of pneumatic and industrial light-weight robots. Second, an extension of parameterized skills to generalize for forward signals of action primitives that result in an enhanced control quality of complex robotic systems. This thesis argues for a shift in the complexity of learning the full dynamics of the robot to a lower dimensional task-related learning problem. Due to the generalization in relation to the task variability, online learning for complex robots as well as complex scenarios becomes feasible. An experimental evaluation investigates the generalization capabilities of the proposed online learning system for robot motion generation. Evaluation is performed through simulation of a compliant 2-DOF arm and scalability to a complex robotic system is demonstrated for a pneumatically driven humanoid robot with 8-DOF

Computer vision based classification of fruits and vegetables for self-checkout at supermarkets

The field of machine learning, and, in particular, methods to improve the capability of machines to perform a wider variety of generalised tasks are among the most rapidly growing research areas in today’s world. The current applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence can be divided into many significant fields namely computer vision, data sciences, real time analytics and Natural Language Processing (NLP). All these applications are being used to help computer based systems to operate more usefully in everyday contexts. Computer vision research is currently active in a wide range of areas such as the development of autonomous vehicles, object recognition, Content Based Image Retrieval (CBIR), image segmentation and terrestrial analysis from space (i.e. crop estimation). Despite significant prior research, the area of object recognition still has many topics to be explored. This PhD thesis focuses on using advanced machine learning approaches to enable the automated recognition of fresh produce (i.e. fruits and vegetables) at supermarket self-checkouts. This type of complex classification task is one of the most recently emerging applications of advanced computer vision approaches and is a productive research topic in this field due to the limited means of representing the features and machine learning techniques for classification. Fruits and vegetables offer significant inter and intra class variance in weight, shape, size, colour and texture which makes the classification challenging. The applications of effective fruit and vegetable classification have significant importance in daily life e.g. crop estimation, fruit classification, robotic harvesting, fruit quality assessment, etc. One potential application for this fruit and vegetable classification capability is for supermarket self-checkouts. Increasingly, supermarkets are introducing self-checkouts in stores to make the checkout process easier and faster. However, there are a number of challenges with this as all goods cannot readily be sold with packaging and barcodes, for instance loose fresh items (e.g. fruits and vegetables). Adding barcodes to these types of items individually is impractical and pre-packaging limits the freedom of choice when selecting fruits and vegetables and creates additional waste, hence reducing customer satisfaction. The current situation, which relies on customers correctly identifying produce themselves leaves open the potential for incorrect billing either due to inadvertent error, or due to intentional fraudulent misclassification resulting in financial losses for the store. To address this identified problem, the main goals of this PhD work are: (a) exploring the types of visual and non-visual sensors that could be incorporated into a self-checkout system for classification of fruits and vegetables, (b) determining a suitable feature representation method for fresh produce items available at supermarkets, (c) identifying optimal machine learning techniques for classification within this context and (d) evaluating our work relative to the state-of-the-art object classification results presented in the literature. An in-depth analysis of related computer vision literature and techniques is performed to identify and implement the possible solutions. A progressive process distribution approach is used for this project where the task of computer vision based fruit and vegetables classification is divided into pre-processing and classification techniques. Different classification techniques have been implemented and evaluated as possible solution for this problem. Both visual and non-visual features of fruit and vegetables are exploited to perform the classification. Novel classification techniques have been carefully developed to deal with the complex and highly variant physical features of fruit and vegetables while taking advantages of both visual and non-visual features. The capability of classification techniques is tested in individual and ensemble manner to achieved the higher effectiveness. Significant results have been obtained where it can be concluded that the fruit and vegetables classification is complex task with many challenges involved. It is also observed that a larger dataset can better comprehend the complex variant features of fruit and vegetables. Complex multidimensional features can be extracted from the larger datasets to generalise on higher number of classes. However, development of a larger multiclass dataset is an expensive and time consuming process. The effectiveness of classification techniques can be significantly improved by subtracting the background occlusions and complexities. It is also worth mentioning that ensemble of simple and less complicated classification techniques can achieve effective results even if applied to less number of features for smaller number of classes. The combination of visual and nonvisual features can reduce the struggle of a classification technique to deal with higher number of classes with similar physical features. Classification of fruit and vegetables with similar physical features (i.e. colour and texture) needs careful estimation and hyper-dimensional embedding of visual features. Implementing rigorous classification penalties as loss function can achieve this goal at the cost of time and computational requirements. There is a significant need to develop larger datasets for different fruit and vegetables related computer vision applications. Considering more sophisticated loss function penalties and discriminative hyper-dimensional features embedding techniques can significantly improve the effectiveness of the classification techniques for the fruit and vegetables applications

DEEP-AD: The deep learning model for diagnostic classification and prognostic prediction of alzheimer's disease

In terms of context, the aim of this dissertation is to aid neuroradiologists in their clinical judgment regarding the early detection of AD by using DL. To that aim, the system design research methodology is suggested in this dissertation for achieving three goals. The first goal is to investigate the DL models that have performed well at identifying patterns associated with AD, as well as the accuracy so far attained, limitations, and gaps. A systematic review of the literature (SLR) revealed a shortage of empirical studies on the early identification of AD through DL. In this regard, thirteen empirical studies were identified and examined. We concluded that three-dimensional (3D) DL models have been generated far less often and that their performance is also inadequate to qualify them for clinical trials. The second goal is to provide the neuroradiologist with the computer-interpretable information they need to analyze neuroimaging biomarkers. Given this context, the next step in this dissertation is to find the optimum DL model to analyze neuroimaging biomarkers. It has been achieved in two steps. In the first step, eight state-of-the-art DL models have been implemented by training from scratch using end-to-end learning (E2EL) for two binary classification tasks (AD vs. CN and AD vs. stable MCI) and compared by utilizing MRI scans from the publicly accessible datasets of neuroimaging biomarkers. Comparative analysis is carried out by utilizing efficiency-effects graphs, comprehensive indicators, and ranking mechanisms. For the training of the AD vs. sMCI task, the EfficientNet-B0 model gets the highest value for the comprehensive indicator and has the fewest parameters. DenseNet264 performed better than the others in terms of evaluation matrices, but since it has the most parameters, it costs more to train. For the AD vs. CN task by DenseNet264, we achieved 100% accuracy for training and 99.56% accuracy for testing. However, the classification accuracy was still only 82.5% for the AD vs. sMCI task. In the second step, fusion of transfer learning (TL) with E2EL is applied to train the EfficientNet-B0 for the AD vs. sMCI task, which achieved 95.29% accuracy for training and 93.10% accuracy for testing. Additionally, we have also implemented EfficientNet-B0 for the multiclass AD vs. CN vs. sMCI classification task with E2EL to be used in ensemble of models and achieved 85.66% training accuracy and 87.38% testing accuracy. To evaluate the model’s robustness, neuroradiologists must validate the implemented model. As a result, the third goal of this dissertation is to create a tool that neuroradiologists may use at their convenience. To achieve this objective, this dissertation proposes a web-based application (DEEP-AD) that has been created by making an ensemble of Efficient-Net B0 and DenseNet 264 (based on the contribution of goal 2). The accuracy of a DEEP-AD prototype has undergone repeated evaluation and improvement. First, we validated 41 subjects of Spanish MRI datasets (acquired from HT Medica, Madrid, Spain), achieving an accuracy of 82.90%, which was later verified by neuroradiologists. The results of these evaluation studies showed the accomplishment of such goals and relevant directions for future research in applied DL for the early detection of AD in clinical settings.En términos de contexto, el objetivo de esta tesis es ayudar a los neurorradiólogos en su juicio clínico sobre la detección precoz de la AD mediante el uso de DL. Para ello, en esta tesis se propone la metodología de investigación de diseño de sistemas para lograr tres objetivos. El segundo objetivo es proporcionar al neurorradiólogo la información interpretable por ordenador que necesita para analizar los biomarcadores de neuroimagen. Dado este contexto, el siguiente paso en esta tesis es encontrar el modelo DL óptimo para analizar biomarcadores de neuroimagen. Esto se ha logrado en dos pasos. En el primer paso, se han implementado ocho modelos DL de última generación mediante entrenamiento desde cero utilizando aprendizaje de extremo a extremo (E2EL) para dos tareas de clasificación binarias (AD vs. CN y AD vs. MCI estable) y se han comparado utilizando escaneos MRI de los conjuntos de datos de biomarcadores de neuroimagen de acceso público. El análisis comparativo se lleva a cabo utilizando gráficos de efecto-eficacia, indicadores exhaustivos y mecanismos de clasificación. Para el entrenamiento de la tarea AD vs. sMCI, el modelo EfficientNet-B0 obtiene el valor más alto para el indicador exhaustivo y tiene el menor número de parámetros. DenseNet264 obtuvo mejores resultados que los demás en términos de matrices de evaluación, pero al ser el que tiene más parámetros, su entrenamiento es más costoso. Para la tarea AD vs. CN de DenseNet264, conseguimos una accuracy del 100% en el entrenamiento y del 99,56% en las pruebas. Sin embargo, la accuracy de la clasificación fue sólo del 82,5% para la tarea AD vs. sMCI. En el segundo paso, se aplica la fusión del aprendizaje por transferencia (TL) con E2EL para entrenar la EfficientNet-B0 para la tarea AD vs. sMCI, que alcanzó una accuracy del 95,29% en el entrenamiento y del 93,10% en las pruebas. Además, también hemos implementado EfficientNet-B0 para la tarea de clasificación multiclase AD vs. CN vs. sMCI con E2EL para su uso en conjuntos de modelos y hemos obtenido una accuracy de entrenamiento del 85,66% y una precisión de prueba del 87,38%. Para evaluar la solidez del modelo, los neurorradiólogos deben validar el modelo implementado. Como resultado, el tercer objetivo de esta disertación es crear una herramienta que los neurorradiólogos puedan utilizar a su conveniencia. Para lograr este objetivo, esta disertación propone una aplicación basada en web (DEEP-AD) que ha sido creada haciendo un ensemble de Efficient-Net B0 y DenseNet 264 (basado en la contribución del objetivo 2). La accuracy del prototipo DEEP-AD ha sido sometida a repetidas evaluaciones y mejoras. En primer lugar, validamos 41 sujetos de conjuntos de datos de MRI españoles (adquiridos de HT Medica, Madrid, España), logrando una accuracy del 82,90%, que posteriormente fue verificada por neurorradiólogos. Los resultados de estos estudios de evaluación mostraron el cumplimiento de dichos objetivos y las direcciones relevantes para futuras investigaciones en DL, aplicada en la detección precoz de la AD en entornos clínicos.Escuela de DoctoradoDoctorado en Tecnologías de la Información y las Telecomunicacione

Augmented classification for electrical coil winding defects

A green revolution has accelerated over the recent decades with a look to replace existing transportation power solutions through the adoption of greener electrical alternatives. In parallel the digitisation of manufacturing has enabled progress in the tracking and traceability of processes and improvements in fault detection and classification. This paper explores electrical machine manufacture and the challenges faced in identifying failures modes during this life cycle through the demonstration of state-of-the-art machine vision methods for the classification of electrical coil winding defects. We demonstrate how recent generative adversarial networks can be used to augment training of these models to further improve their accuracy for this challenging task. Our approach utilises pre-processing and dimensionality reduction to boost performance of the model from a standard convolutional neural network (CNN) leading to a significant increase in accuracy