Influence-Optimistic Local Values for Multiagent Planning --- Extended Version

Recent years have seen the development of methods for multiagent planning under uncertainty that scale to tens or even hundreds of agents. However, most of these methods either make restrictive assumptions on the problem domain, or provide approximate solutions without any guarantees on quality. Methods in the former category typically build on heuristic search using upper bounds on the value function. Unfortunately, no techniques exist to compute such upper bounds for problems with non-factored value functions. To allow for meaningful benchmarking through measurable quality guarantees on a very general class of problems, this paper introduces a family of influence-optimistic upper bounds for factored decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) that do not have factored value functions. Intuitively, we derive bounds on very large multiagent planning problems by subdividing them in sub-problems, and at each of these sub-problems making optimistic assumptions with respect to the influence that will be exerted by the rest of the system. We numerically compare the different upper bounds and demonstrate how we can achieve a non-trivial guarantee that a heuristic solution for problems with hundreds of agents is close to optimal. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the upper bounds may improve the effectiveness of heuristic influence search, and discuss further potential applications to multiagent planning.Comment: Long version of IJCAI 2015 paper (and extended abstract at AAMAS 2015

Perseus: Randomized Point-based Value Iteration for POMDPs

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form an attractive and principled framework for agent planning under uncertainty. Point-based approximate techniques for POMDPs compute a policy based on a finite set of points collected in advance from the agents belief space. We present a randomized point-based value iteration algorithm called Perseus. The algorithm performs approximate value backup stages, ensuring that in each backup stage the value of each point in the belief set is improved; the key observation is that a single backup may improve the value of many belief points. Contrary to other point-based methods, Perseus backs up only a (randomly selected) subset of points in the belief set, sufficient for improving the value of each belief point in the set. We show how the same idea can be extended to dealing with continuous action spaces. Experimental results show the potential of Perseus in large scale POMDP problems

Learning for Multi-robot Cooperation in Partially Observable Stochastic Environments with Macro-actions

This paper presents a data-driven approach for multi-robot coordination in partially-observable domains based on Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) and macro-actions (MAs). Dec-POMDPs provide a general framework for cooperative sequential decision making under uncertainty and MAs allow temporally extended and asynchronous action execution. To date, most methods assume the underlying Dec-POMDP model is known a priori or a full simulator is available during planning time. Previous methods which aim to address these issues suffer from local optimality and sensitivity to initial conditions. Additionally, few hardware demonstrations involving a large team of heterogeneous robots and with long planning horizons exist. This work addresses these gaps by proposing an iterative sampling based Expectation-Maximization algorithm (iSEM) to learn polices using only trajectory data containing observations, MAs, and rewards. Our experiments show the algorithm is able to achieve better solution quality than the state-of-the-art learning-based methods. We implement two variants of multi-robot Search and Rescue (SAR) domains (with and without obstacles) on hardware to demonstrate the learned policies can effectively control a team of distributed robots to cooperate in a partially observable stochastic environment.Comment: Accepted to the 2017 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS 2017

Stick-Breaking Policy Learning in Dec-POMDPs

Expectation maximization (EM) has recently been shown to be an efficient algorithm for learning finite-state controllers (FSCs) in large decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs). However, current methods use fixed-size FSCs and often converge to maxima that are far from optimal. This paper considers a variable-size FSC to represent the local policy of each agent. These variable-size FSCs are constructed using a stick-breaking prior, leading to a new framework called \emph{decentralized stick-breaking policy representation} (Dec-SBPR). This approach learns the controller parameters with a variational Bayesian algorithm without having to assume that the Dec-POMDP model is available. The performance of Dec-SBPR is demonstrated on several benchmark problems, showing that the algorithm scales to large problems while outperforming other state-of-the-art methods

Scalable Planning and Learning for Multiagent POMDPs: Extended Version

Online, sample-based planning algorithms for POMDPs have shown great promise in scaling to problems with large state spaces, but they become intractable for large action and observation spaces. This is particularly problematic in multiagent POMDPs where the action and observation space grows exponentially with the number of agents. To combat this intractability, we propose a novel scalable approach based on sample-based planning and factored value functions that exploits structure present in many multiagent settings. This approach applies not only in the planning case, but also in the Bayesian reinforcement learning setting. Experimental results show that we are able to provide high quality solutions to large multiagent planning and learning problems

Adaptive Information Gathering via Imitation Learning

In the adaptive information gathering problem, a policy is required to select an informative sensing location using the history of measurements acquired thus far. While there is an extensive amount of prior work investigating effective practical approximations using variants of Shannon's entropy, the efficacy of such policies heavily depends on the geometric distribution of objects in the world. On the other hand, the principled approach of employing online POMDP solvers is rendered impractical by the need to explicitly sample online from a posterior distribution of world maps. We present a novel data-driven imitation learning framework to efficiently train information gathering policies. The policy imitates a clairvoyant oracle - an oracle that at train time has full knowledge about the world map and can compute maximally informative sensing locations. We analyze the learnt policy by showing that offline imitation of a clairvoyant oracle is implicitly equivalent to online oracle execution in conjunction with posterior sampling. This observation allows us to obtain powerful near-optimality guarantees for information gathering problems possessing an adaptive sub-modularity property. As demonstrated on a spectrum of 2D and 3D exploration problems, the trained policies enjoy the best of both worlds - they adapt to different world map distributions while being computationally inexpensive to evaluate.Comment: Robotics Science and Systems, 201

Structure in the Value Function of Two-Player Zero-Sum Games of Incomplete Information

Zero-sum stochastic games provide a rich model for competitive decision making. However, under general forms of state uncertainty as considered in the Partially Observable Stochastic Game (POSG), such decision making problems are still not very well understood. This paper makes a contribution to the theory of zero-sum POSGs by characterizing structure in their value function. In particular, we introduce a new formulation of the value function for zs-POSGs as a function of the "plan-time sufficient statistics" (roughly speaking the information distribution in the POSG), which has the potential to enable generalization over such information distributions. We further delineate this generalization capability by proving a structural result on the shape of value function: it exhibits concavity and convexity with respect to appropriately chosen marginals of the statistic space. This result is a key pre-cursor for developing solution methods that may be able to exploit such structure. Finally, we show how these results allow us to reduce a zs-POSG to a "centralized" model with shared observations, thereby transferring results for the latter, narrower class, to games with individual (private) observations

Experimental results : Reinforcement Learning of POMDPs using Spectral Methods

We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive) latent variable models such as hidden Markov models, POMDPs are more challenging since the learner interacts with the environment and possibly changes the future observations in the process. We devise a learning algorithm running through epochs, in each epoch we employ spectral techniques to learn the POMDP parameters from a trajectory generated by a fixed policy. At the end of the epoch, an optimization oracle returns the optimal memoryless planning policy which maximizes the expected reward based on the estimated POMDP model. We prove an order-optimal regret bound with respect to the optimal memoryless policy and efficient scaling with respect to the dimensionality of observation and action spaces.Comment: 30th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2016), Barcelona, Spai