Scalable Population Synthesis with Deep Generative Modeling

Population synthesis is concerned with the generation of synthetic yet realistic representations of populations. It is a fundamental problem in the modeling of transport where the synthetic populations of micro-agents represent a key input to most agent-based models. In this paper, a new methodological framework for how to 'grow' pools of micro-agents is presented. The model framework adopts a deep generative modeling approach from machine learning based on a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Compared to the previous population synthesis approaches, including Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), Gibbs sampling and traditional generative models such as Bayesian Networks or Hidden Markov Models, the proposed method allows fitting the full joint distribution for high dimensions. The proposed methodology is compared with a conventional Gibbs sampler and a Bayesian Network by using a large-scale Danish trip diary. It is shown that, while these two methods outperform the VAE in the low-dimensional case, they both suffer from scalability issues when the number of modeled attributes increases. It is also shown that the Gibbs sampler essentially replicates the agents from the original sample when the required conditional distributions are estimated as frequency tables. In contrast, the VAE allows addressing the problem of sampling zeros by generating agents that are virtually different from those in the original data but have similar statistical properties. The presented approach can support agent-based modeling at all levels by enabling richer synthetic populations with smaller zones and more detailed individual characteristics.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figures, 4 table

Stochastic Weighted Graphs: Flexible Model Specification and Simulation

In most domains of network analysis researchers consider networks that arise in nature with weighted edges. Such networks are routinely dichotomized in the interest of using available methods for statistical inference with networks. The generalized exponential random graph model (GERGM) is a recently proposed method used to simulate and model the edges of a weighted graph. The GERGM specifies a joint distribution for an exponential family of graphs with continuous-valued edge weights. However, current estimation algorithms for the GERGM only allow inference on a restricted family of model specifications. To address this issue, we develop a Metropolis--Hastings method that can be used to estimate any GERGM specification, thereby significantly extending the family of weighted graphs that can be modeled with the GERGM. We show that new flexible model specifications are capable of avoiding likelihood degeneracy and efficiently capturing network structure in applications where such models were not previously available. We demonstrate the utility of this new class of GERGMs through application to two real network data sets, and we further assess the effectiveness of our proposed methodology by simulating non-degenerate model specifications from the well-studied two-stars model. A working R version of the GERGM code is available in the supplement and will be incorporated in the gergm CRAN package.Comment: 33 pages, 6 figures. To appear in Social Network

Scalable Data Integration for Linked Data

Linked Data describes an extensive set of structured but heterogeneous datasources where entities are connected by formal semantic descriptions. In thevision of the Semantic Web, these semantic links are extended towards theWorld Wide Web to provide as much machine-readable data as possible forsearch queries. The resulting connections allow an automatic evaluation to findnew insights into the data. Identifying these semantic connections betweentwo data sources with automatic approaches is called link discovery. We derivecommon requirements and a generic link discovery workflow based on similaritiesbetween entity properties and associated properties of ontology concepts. Mostof the existing link discovery approaches disregard the fact that in times ofBig Data, an increasing volume of data sources poses new demands on linkdiscovery. In particular, the problem of complex and time-consuming linkdetermination escalates with an increasing number of intersecting data sources.To overcome the restriction of pairwise linking of entities, holistic clusteringapproaches are needed to link equivalent entities of multiple data sources toconstruct integrated knowledge bases. In this context, the focus on efficiencyand scalability is essential. For example, reusing existing links or backgroundinformation can help to avoid redundant calculations. However, when dealingwith multiple data sources, additional data quality problems must also be dealtwith. This dissertation addresses these comprehensive challenges by designingholistic linking and clustering approaches that enable reuse of existing links.Unlike previous systems, we execute the complete data integration workflowvia a distributed processing system. At first, the LinkLion portal will beintroduced to provide existing links for new applications. These links act asa basis for a physical data integration process to create a unified representationfor equivalent entities from many data sources. We then propose a holisticclustering approach to form consolidated clusters for same real-world entitiesfrom many different sources. At the same time, we exploit the semantic typeof entities to improve the quality of the result. The process identifies errorsin existing links and can find numerous additional links. Additionally, theentity clustering has to react to the high dynamics of the data. In particular,this requires scalable approaches for continuously growing data sources withmany entities as well as additional new sources. Previous entity clusteringapproaches are mostly static, focusing on the one-time linking and clustering ofentities from few sources. Therefore, we propose and evaluate new approaches for incremental entity clustering that supports the continuous addition of newentities and data sources. To cope with the ever-increasing number of LinkedData sources, efficient and scalable methods based on distributed processingsystems are required. Thus we propose distributed holistic approaches to linkmany data sources based on a clustering of entities that represent the samereal-world object. The implementation is realized on Apache Flink. In contrastto previous approaches, we utilize efficiency-enhancing optimizations for bothdistributed static and dynamic clustering. An extensive comparative evaluationof the proposed approaches with various distributed clustering strategies showshigh effectiveness for datasets from multiple domains as well as scalability on amulti-machine Apache Flink cluster