9,266 research outputs found

    Model Diagnostics meets Forecast Evaluation: Goodness-of-Fit, Calibration, and Related Topics

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    Principled forecast evaluation and model diagnostics are vital in fitting probabilistic models and forecasting outcomes of interest. A common principle is that fitted or predicted distributions ought to be calibrated, ideally in the sense that the outcome is indistinguishable from a random draw from the posited distribution. Much of this thesis is centered on calibration properties of various types of forecasts. In the first part of the thesis, a simple algorithm for exact multinomial goodness-of-fit tests is proposed. The algorithm computes exact pp-values based on various test statistics, such as the log-likelihood ratio and Pearson\u27s chi-square. A thorough analysis shows improvement on extant methods. However, the runtime of the algorithm grows exponentially in the number of categories and hence its use is limited. In the second part, a framework rooted in probability theory is developed, which gives rise to hierarchies of calibration, and applies to both predictive distributions and stand-alone point forecasts. Based on a general notion of conditional T-calibration, the thesis introduces population versions of T-reliability diagrams and revisits a score decomposition into measures of miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty. Stable and efficient estimators of T-reliability diagrams and score components arise via nonparametric isotonic regression and the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm. For in-sample model diagnostics, a universal coefficient of determination is introduced that nests and reinterprets the classical R2R^2 in least squares regression. In the third part, probabilistic top lists are proposed as a novel type of prediction in classification, which bridges the gap between single-class predictions and predictive distributions. The probabilistic top list functional is elicited by strictly consistent evaluation metrics, based on symmetric proper scoring rules, which admit comparison of various types of predictions

    Victims' Access to Justice in Trinidad and Tobago: An exploratory study of experiences and challenges of accessing criminal justice in a post-colonial society

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    This thesis investigates victims' access to justice in Trinidad and Tobago, using their own narratives. It seeks to capture how their experiences affected their identities as victims and citizens, alongside their perceptions of legitimacy regarding the criminal justice system. While there have been some reforms in the administration of criminal justice in Trinidad and Tobago, such reforms have not focused on victims' accessibility to the justice system. Using grounded theory methodology, qualitative data was collected through 31 in-depth interviews with victims and victim advocates. The analysis found that victims experienced interpersonal, structural, and systemic barriers at varying levels throughout the criminal justice system, which manifested as institutionalized secondary victimization, silencing and inequality. This thesis argues that such experiences not only served to appropriate conflict but demonstrates that access is often given in a very narrow sense. Furthermore, it shows a failure to encompass access to justice as appropriated conflicts are left to stagnate in the system as there is often very little resolution. Adopting a postcolonial lens to analyse victims' experiences, the analysis identified othering practices that served to institutionalize the vulnerability and powerlessness associated with victim identities. Here, it is argued that these othering practices also affected the rights consciousness of victims, delegitimating their identities as citizens. Moreover, as a result of their experiences, victims had mixed perceptions of the justice system. It is argued that while the system is a legitimate authority victims' endorsement of the system is questionable, therefore victims' experiences suggest that there is a reinforcement of the system's legal hegemony. The findings suggest that within the legal system of Trinidad and Tobago, legacies of colonialism shape the postcolonial present as the psychology and inequalities of the past are present in the interactions and processes of justice. These findings are relevant for policymakers in Trinidad and Tobago and other regions. From this study it is recognized that, to improve access to justice for victims, there needs to be a move towards victim empowerment that promotes resilience and enhances social capital. Going forward it is noted that there is a need for further research

    INVESTIGATING THE PERCEPTION OF EXPATRIATES TOWARDS IMMIGRATION SERVICE QUALITY IN SHARJAH, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES THROUGH MIXED METHOD APPROACH

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    The public sectors in UAE are under immense pressure to demonstrate that their services are customer-focused and that continuous performance improvement is being delivered. The United Arab Emirates is a favoured destination for expatriates due to its own citizens form a minority of the population and are barely represented in the private sector workforce. These highly unusual demographics confer high importance on the national immigration services. Recently, increased interest in international migration, specifically within the United Arab Emirates, has been shown both by government agencies and by the governments of industrialised countries. Given the importance of the expatriate labour force to economic stability and growth in the Emirates, this research investigates how immigration services are perceived, with the aim of contributing to their improvement, thus ultimately supporting economic growth. It proposes a service quality perception framework to improve understanding within SID of how to raise levels of service delivered to migrants and other persons directly or indirectly affected by SID services. Qualitative data were collected by means of semi-structured interviews and quantitative data by means of a questionnaire survey based on the abovementioned framework. The survey data, on the variables influencing participants’ experiences and perceptions of SID services, were subjected to statistical analysis. The framework was then used to evaluate quality of service in terms of general impressions, delivery, location, response, SID culture and behaviour. Numerical data were analysed using inferential and descriptive statistics. It was found that service quality positively influenced service behaviour and that this relationship was mediated by SID culture. This research makes an original contribution to knowledge as one of the few studies of immigration to the United Arab Emirates. By examining the workings of one immigration department, it adds to the literature on immigration departments and organisational development in developing countries. It illuminates the mechanics of immigration services and demonstrates their increasing importance to the world economy

    Image classification over unknown and anomalous domains

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    A longstanding goal in computer vision research is to develop methods that are simultaneously applicable to a broad range of prediction problems. In contrast to this, models often perform best when they are specialized to some task or data type. This thesis investigates the challenges of learning models that generalize well over multiple unknown or anomalous modes and domains in data, and presents new solutions for learning robustly in this setting. Initial investigations focus on normalization for distributions that contain multiple sources (e.g. images in different styles like cartoons or photos). Experiments demonstrate the extent to which existing modules, batch normalization in particular, struggle with such heterogeneous data, and a new solution is proposed that can better handle data from multiple visual modes, using differing sample statistics for each. While ideas to counter the overspecialization of models have been formulated in sub-disciplines of transfer learning, e.g. multi-domain and multi-task learning, these usually rely on the existence of meta information, such as task or domain labels. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to a new transfer learning setting, called latent domain learning in this thesis, in which training and inference are carried out over data from multiple visual domains, without domain-level annotations. Customized solutions are required for this, as the performance of standard models degrades: a new data augmentation technique that interpolates between latent domains in an unsupervised way is presented, alongside a dedicated module that sparsely accounts for hidden domains in data, without requiring domain labels to do so. In addition, the thesis studies the problem of classifying previously unseen or anomalous modes in data, a fundamental problem in one-class learning, and anomaly detection in particular. While recent ideas have been focused on developing self-supervised solutions for the one-class setting, in this thesis new methods based on transfer learning are formulated. Extensive experimental evidence demonstrates that a transfer-based perspective benefits new problems that have recently been proposed in anomaly detection literature, in particular challenging semantic detection tasks

    TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF EFFORTFUL FUNDRAISING EXPERIENCES: USING INTERPRETATIVE PHENOMENOLOGICAL ANALYSIS IN FUNDRAISING RESEARCH

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    Physical-activity oriented community fundraising has experienced an exponential growth in popularity over the past 15 years. The aim of this study was to explore the value of effortful fundraising experiences, from the point of view of participants, and explore the impact that these experiences have on people’s lives. This study used an IPA approach to interview 23 individuals, recognising the role of participants as proxy (nonprofessional) fundraisers for charitable organisations, and the unique organisation donor dynamic that this creates. It also bought together relevant psychological theory related to physical activity fundraising experiences (through a narrative literature review) and used primary interview data to substantiate these. Effortful fundraising experiences are examined in detail to understand their significance to participants, and how such experiences influence their connection with a charity or cause. This was done with an idiographic focus at first, before examining convergences and divergences across the sample. This study found that effortful fundraising experiences can have a profound positive impact upon community fundraisers in both the short and the long term. Additionally, it found that these experiences can be opportunities for charitable organisations to create lasting meaningful relationships with participants, and foster mutually beneficial lifetime relationships with them. Further research is needed to test specific psychological theory in this context, including self-esteem theory, self determination theory, and the martyrdom effect (among others)

    Foundations for programming and implementing effect handlers

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    First-class control operators provide programmers with an expressive and efficient means for manipulating control through reification of the current control state as a first-class object, enabling programmers to implement their own computational effects and control idioms as shareable libraries. Effect handlers provide a particularly structured approach to programming with first-class control by naming control reifying operations and separating from their handling. This thesis is composed of three strands of work in which I develop operational foundations for programming and implementing effect handlers as well as exploring the expressive power of effect handlers. The first strand develops a fine-grain call-by-value core calculus of a statically typed programming language with a structural notion of effect types, as opposed to the nominal notion of effect types that dominates the literature. With the structural approach, effects need not be declared before use. The usual safety properties of statically typed programming are retained by making crucial use of row polymorphism to build and track effect signatures. The calculus features three forms of handlers: deep, shallow, and parameterised. They each offer a different approach to manipulate the control state of programs. Traditional deep handlers are defined by folds over computation trees, and are the original con-struct proposed by Plotkin and Pretnar. Shallow handlers are defined by case splits (rather than folds) over computation trees. Parameterised handlers are deep handlers extended with a state value that is threaded through the folds over computation trees. To demonstrate the usefulness of effects and handlers as a practical programming abstraction I implement the essence of a small UNIX-style operating system complete with multi-user environment, time-sharing, and file I/O. The second strand studies continuation passing style (CPS) and abstract machine semantics, which are foundational techniques that admit a unified basis for implementing deep, shallow, and parameterised effect handlers in the same environment. The CPS translation is obtained through a series of refinements of a basic first-order CPS translation for a fine-grain call-by-value language into an untyped language. Each refinement moves toward a more intensional representation of continuations eventually arriving at the notion of generalised continuation, which admit simultaneous support for deep, shallow, and parameterised handlers. The initial refinement adds support for deep handlers by representing stacks of continuations and handlers as a curried sequence of arguments. The image of the resulting translation is not properly tail-recursive, meaning some function application terms do not appear in tail position. To rectify this the CPS translation is refined once more to obtain an uncurried representation of stacks of continuations and handlers. Finally, the translation is made higher-order in order to contract administrative redexes at translation time. The generalised continuation representation is used to construct an abstract machine that provide simultaneous support for deep, shallow, and parameterised effect handlers. kinds of effect handlers. The third strand explores the expressiveness of effect handlers. First, I show that deep, shallow, and parameterised notions of handlers are interdefinable by way of typed macro-expressiveness, which provides a syntactic notion of expressiveness that affirms the existence of encodings between handlers, but it provides no information about the computational content of the encodings. Second, using the semantic notion of expressiveness I show that for a class of programs a programming language with first-class control (e.g. effect handlers) admits asymptotically faster implementations than possible in a language without first-class control

    The Impact of a Play Intervention on the Social-Emotional Development of Preschool Children in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

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    Practitioners working with children have emphasized that play is vital to children’s development, Links between children’s social-emotional development and play have been widely documented. However, rigorous research evidence of these links remains limited. This study’s objectives were to measure the impact of play on children’s social-emotional development in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia; identify teachers’ viewpoints around the use of play intervention; and understand the children’s experience of play intervention. Fifty-nine children aged between five and six years, with mean age of 5.5 (SD 3.376) and eight teachers participated in the study. The study used a mixed-method strategy including questionnaires, interviews, and focus group discussions. Children’s social-emotional development was measured by using the Strengths and Difficulties Questioner (SDQ). A pre-/post-test counterbalanced design was used to measure the impact of the play intervention on children’s development. Teachers’ perspectives on play were obtained by interviewing eight teachers. Children’s views were gathered through focus group discussions. Repeated measures ANOVA was conducted to determine the differences in the SDQ score over three time points. Results showed that using unstructured loose parts play had positively impacted children’s social-emotional development. After participation in the play intervention, scores from the SDQ indicated that children demonstrated significantly less problematic emotional, conduct and peer relationship issues. They also scored significantly higher in their positive prosocial behaviour. These positive effects were sustained after six weeks of stopping the intervention. The play intervention did not however impact children’s hyperactivity level. The interviews analysis illustrates four main themes: concept and characteristics of play, play functions, developmental benefits of play, and play and practice. Regarding children’s discussion, affordance emerged as a main theme; this includes emotional, social, and functional affordances. Unstructured loose parts play intervention was demonstrated to have positive impacts on children’s social-emotional development. The study’s findings support the view that play is a way to increase children’s development

    Socio-endocrinology revisited: New tools to tackle old questions

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    Animals’ social environments impact their health and survival, but the proximate links between sociality and fitness are still not fully understood. In this thesis, I develop and apply new approaches to address an outstanding question within this sociality-fitness link: does grooming (a widely studied, positive social interaction) directly affect glucocorticoid concentrations (GCs; a group of steroid hormones indicating physiological stress) in a wild primate? To date, negative, long-term correlations between grooming and GCs have been found, but the logistical difficulties of studying proximate mechanisms in the wild leave knowledge gaps regarding the short-term, causal mechanisms that underpin this relationship. New technologies, such as collar-mounted tri-axial accelerometers, can provide the continuous behavioural data required to match grooming to non-invasive GC measures (Chapter 1). Using Chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) living on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa as a model system, I identify giving and receiving grooming using tri-axial accelerometers and supervised machine learning methods, with high overall accuracy (~80%) (Chapter 2). I then test what socio-ecological variables predict variation in faecal and urinary GCs (fGCs and uGCs) (Chapter 3). Shorter and rainy days are associated with higher fGCs and uGCs, respectively, suggesting that environmental conditions may impose stressors in the form of temporal bottlenecks. Indeed, I find that short days and days with more rain-hours are associated with reduced giving grooming (Chapter 4), and that this reduction is characterised by fewer and shorter grooming bouts. Finally, I test whether grooming predicts GCs, and find that while there is a long-term negative correlation between grooming and GCs, grooming in the short-term, in particular giving grooming, is associated with higher fGCs and uGCs (Chapter 5). I end with a discussion on how the new tools I applied have enabled me to advance our understanding of sociality and stress in primate social systems (Chapter 6)
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