Bayesian model selection for exponential random graph models via adjusted pseudolikelihoods

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable problem because both the likelihood function and the posterior distribution are intractable. The comparison of Bayesian models is often based on the statistical evidence, the integral of the un-normalised posterior distribution over the model parameters which is rarely available in closed form. For doubly-intractable models, estimating the evidence adds another layer of difficulty. Consequently, the selection of the model that best describes an observed network among a collection of exponential random graph models for network analysis is a daunting task. Pseudolikelihoods offer a tractable approximation to the likelihood but should be treated with caution because they can lead to an unreasonable inference. This paper specifies a method to adjust pseudolikelihoods in order to obtain a reasonable, yet tractable, approximation to the likelihood. This allows implementation of widely used computational methods for evidence estimation and pursuit of Bayesian model selection of exponential random graph models for the analysis of social networks. Empirical comparisons to existing methods show that our procedure yields similar evidence estimates, but at a lower computational cost.Comment: Supplementary material attached. To view attachments, please download and extract the gzzipped source file listed under "Other formats

Statistical Network Analysis with Bergm

Recent advances in computational methods for intractable models have made network data increasingly amenable to statistical analysis. Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) emerged as one of the main families of models capable of capturing the complex dependence structure of network data in a wide range of applied contexts. The Bergm package for R has become a popular package to carry out Bayesian parameter inference, missing data imputation, model selection and goodness-of-fit diagnostics for ERGMs. Over the last few years, the package has been considerably improved in terms of efficiency by adopting some of the state-of-the-art Bayesian computational methods for doubly-intractable distributions. Recently, version 5 of the package has been made available on CRAN having undergone a substantial makeover, which has made it more accessible and easy to use for practitioners. New functions include data augmentation procedures based on the approximate exchange algorithm for dealing with missing data, adjusted pseudo-likelihood and pseudo-posterior procedures, which allow for fast approximate inference of the ERGM parameter posterior and model evidence for networks on several thousands nodes.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

Generalized Direct Sampling for Hierarchical Bayesian Models

We develop a new method to sample from posterior distributions in hierarchical models without using Markov chain Monte Carlo. This method, which is a variant of importance sampling ideas, is generally applicable to high-dimensional models involving large data sets. Samples are independent, so they can be collected in parallel, and we do not need to be concerned with issues like chain convergence and autocorrelation. Additionally, the method can be used to compute marginal likelihoods

A survey on independence-based Markov networks learning

This work reports the most relevant technical aspects in the problem of learning the \emph{Markov network structure} from data. Such problem has become increasingly important in machine learning, and many other application fields of machine learning. Markov networks, together with Bayesian networks, are probabilistic graphical models, a widely used formalism for handling probability distributions in intelligent systems. Learning graphical models from data have been extensively applied for the case of Bayesian networks, but for Markov networks learning it is not tractable in practice. However, this situation is changing with time, given the exponential growth of computers capacity, the plethora of available digital data, and the researching on new learning technologies. This work stresses on a technology called independence-based learning, which allows the learning of the independence structure of those networks from data in an efficient and sound manner, whenever the dataset is sufficiently large, and data is a representative sampling of the target distribution. In the analysis of such technology, this work surveys the current state-of-the-art algorithms for learning Markov networks structure, discussing its current limitations, and proposing a series of open problems where future works may produce some advances in the area in terms of quality and efficiency. The paper concludes by opening a discussion about how to develop a general formalism for improving the quality of the structures learned, when data is scarce.Comment: 35 pages, 1 figur

Sustainable energy governance in South Tyrol (Italy): A probabilistic bipartite network model

At the national scale, almost all of the European countries have already achieved energy transition targets, while at the regional and local scales, there is still some potential to further push sustainable energy transitions. Regions and localities have the support of political, social, and economic actors who make decisions for meeting existing social, environmental and economic needs recognising local specificities. These actors compose the sustainable energy governance that is fundamental to effectively plan and manage energy resources. In collaborative relationships, these actors share, save, and protect several kinds of resources, thereby making energy transitions deeper and more effective. This research aimed to analyse a part of the sustainable energy governance composed of formal relationships between municipalities and public utilities and to investigate the opportunities to further spread sustainable energy development within a region. In the case study from South Tyrol, Italy, the network structures and dynamics of this part of the actual energy governance were investigated through a social network analysis and Bayesian exponential random graph models. The findings confirmed that almost all of the collaborations are based on spatial closeness relations and that the current network structures do not permit a further spread of the sustainable energy governance. The methodological approach can be replicated in other case studies and the findings are relevant to support energy planning choices at regional and local scales

Probabilistic Numerics and Uncertainty in Computations

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data has led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimisers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.Comment: Author Generated Postprint. 17 pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl