Counterexample Generation in Probabilistic Model Checking

Providing evidence for the refutation of a property is an essential, if not the most important, feature of model checking. This paper considers algorithms for counterexample generation for probabilistic CTL formulae in discrete-time Markov chains. Finding the strongest evidence (i.e., the most probable path) violating a (bounded) until-formula is shown to be reducible to a single-source (hop-constrained) shortest path problem. Counterexamples of smallest size that deviate most from the required probability bound can be obtained by applying (small amendments to) k-shortest (hop-constrained) paths algorithms. These results can be extended to Markov chains with rewards, to LTL model checking, and are useful for Markov decision processes. Experimental results show that typically the size of a counterexample is excessive. To obtain much more compact representations, we present a simple algorithm to generate (minimal) regular expressions that can act as counterexamples. The feasibility of our approach is illustrated by means of two communication protocols: leader election in an anonymous ring network and the Crowds protocol

Zero-Reachability in Probabilistic Multi-Counter Automata

We study the qualitative and quantitative zero-reachability problem in probabilistic multi-counter systems. We identify the undecidable variants of the problems, and then we concentrate on the remaining two cases. In the first case, when we are interested in the probability of all runs that visit zero in some counter, we show that the qualitative zero-reachability is decidable in time which is polynomial in the size of a given pMC and doubly exponential in the number of counters. Further, we show that the probability of all zero-reaching runs can be effectively approximated up to an arbitrarily small given error epsilon > 0 in time which is polynomial in log(epsilon), exponential in the size of a given pMC, and doubly exponential in the number of counters. In the second case, we are interested in the probability of all runs that visit zero in some counter different from the last counter. Here we show that the qualitative zero-reachability is decidable and SquareRootSum-hard, and the probability of all zero-reaching runs can be effectively approximated up to an arbitrarily small given error epsilon > 0 (these result applies to pMC satisfying a suitable technical condition that can be verified in polynomial time). The proof techniques invented in the second case allow to construct counterexamples for some classical results about ergodicity in stochastic Petri nets.Comment: 20 page

Quantum computation with devices whose contents are never read

In classical computation, a "write-only memory" (WOM) is little more than an oxymoron, and the addition of WOM to a (deterministic or probabilistic) classical computer brings no advantage. We prove that quantum computers that are augmented with WOM can solve problems that neither a classical computer with WOM nor a quantum computer without WOM can solve, when all other resource bounds are equal. We focus on realtime quantum finite automata, and examine the increase in their power effected by the addition of WOMs with different access modes and capacities. Some problems that are unsolvable by two-way probabilistic Turing machines using sublogarithmic amounts of read/write memory are shown to be solvable by these enhanced automata.Comment: 32 pages, a preliminary version of this work was presented in the 9th International Conference on Unconventional Computation (UC2010

Asymptotic Complexity Estimates for Probabilistic Programs and Their VASS Abstractions

The standard approach to analyzing the asymptotic complexity of probabilistic programs is based on studying the asymptotic growth of certain expected values (such as the expected termination time) for increasing input size. We argue that this approach is not sufficiently robust, especially in situations when the expectations are infinite. We propose new estimates for the asymptotic analysis of probabilistic programs with non-deterministic choice that overcome this deficiency. Furthermore, we show how to efficiently compute/analyze these estimates for selected classes of programs represented as Markov decision processes over vector addition systems with states

Bit-Vector Model Counting using Statistical Estimation

Approximate model counting for bit-vector SMT formulas (generalizing \#SAT) has many applications such as probabilistic inference and quantitative information-flow security, but it is computationally difficult. Adding random parity constraints (XOR streamlining) and then checking satisfiability is an effective approximation technique, but it requires a prior hypothesis about the model count to produce useful results. We propose an approach inspired by statistical estimation to continually refine a probabilistic estimate of the model count for a formula, so that each XOR-streamlined query yields as much information as possible. We implement this approach, with an approximate probability model, as a wrapper around an off-the-shelf SMT solver or SAT solver. Experimental results show that the implementation is faster than the most similar previous approaches which used simpler refinement strategies. The technique also lets us model count formulas over floating-point constraints, which we demonstrate with an application to a vulnerability in differential privacy mechanisms

Stochastic Invariants for Probabilistic Termination

Termination is one of the basic liveness properties, and we study the termination problem for probabilistic programs with real-valued variables. Previous works focused on the qualitative problem that asks whether an input program terminates with probability~1 (almost-sure termination). A powerful approach for this qualitative problem is the notion of ranking supermartingales with respect to a given set of invariants. The quantitative problem (probabilistic termination) asks for bounds on the termination probability. A fundamental and conceptual drawback of the existing approaches to address probabilistic termination is that even though the supermartingales consider the probabilistic behavior of the programs, the invariants are obtained completely ignoring the probabilistic aspect. In this work we address the probabilistic termination problem for linear-arithmetic probabilistic programs with nondeterminism. We define the notion of {\em stochastic invariants}, which are constraints along with a probability bound that the constraints hold. We introduce a concept of {\em repulsing supermartingales}. First, we show that repulsing supermartingales can be used to obtain bounds on the probability of the stochastic invariants. Second, we show the effectiveness of repulsing supermartingales in the following three ways: (1)~With a combination of ranking and repulsing supermartingales we can compute lower bounds on the probability of termination; (2)~repulsing supermartingales provide witnesses for refutation of almost-sure termination; and (3)~with a combination of ranking and repulsing supermartingales we can establish persistence properties of probabilistic programs. We also present results on related computational problems and an experimental evaluation of our approach on academic examples.Comment: Full version of a paper published at POPL 2017. 20 page

Cost Analysis of Nondeterministic Probabilistic Programs

We consider the problem of expected cost analysis over nondeterministic probabilistic programs, which aims at automated methods for analyzing the resource-usage of such programs. Previous approaches for this problem could only handle nonnegative bounded costs. However, in many scenarios, such as queuing networks or analysis of cryptocurrency protocols, both positive and negative costs are necessary and the costs are unbounded as well. In this work, we present a sound and efficient approach to obtain polynomial bounds on the expected accumulated cost of nondeterministic probabilistic programs. Our approach can handle (a) general positive and negative costs with bounded updates in variables; and (b) nonnegative costs with general updates to variables. We show that several natural examples which could not be handled by previous approaches are captured in our framework. Moreover, our approach leads to an efficient polynomial-time algorithm, while no previous approach for cost analysis of probabilistic programs could guarantee polynomial runtime. Finally, we show the effectiveness of our approach by presenting experimental results on a variety of programs, motivated by real-world applications, for which we efficiently synthesize tight resource-usage bounds.Comment: A conference version will appear in the 40th ACM Conference on Programming Language Design and Implementation (PLDI 2019

Cost analysis of nondeterministic probabilistic programs

We consider the problem of expected cost analysis over nondeterministic probabilistic programs, which aims at automated methods for analyzing the resource-usage of such programs. Previous approaches for this problem could only handle nonnegative bounded costs. However, in many scenarios, such as queuing networks or analysis of cryptocurrency protocols, both positive and negative costs are necessary and the costs are unbounded as well. In this work, we present a sound and efficient approach to obtain polynomial bounds on the expected accumulated cost of nondeterministic probabilistic programs. Our approach can handle (a) general positive and negative costs with bounded updates in variables; and (b) nonnegative costs with general updates to variables. We show that several natural examples which could not be handled by previous approaches are captured in our framework. Moreover, our approach leads to an efficient polynomial-time algorithm, while no previous approach for cost analysis of probabilistic programs could guarantee polynomial runtime. Finally, we show the effectiveness of our approach using experimental results on a variety of programs for which we efficiently synthesize tight resource-usage bounds