13,767 research outputs found

    Likelihood Asymptotics in Nonregular Settings: A Review with Emphasis on the Likelihood Ratio

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    This paper reviews the most common situations where one or more regularity conditions which underlie classical likelihood-based parametric inference fail. We identify three main classes of problems: boundary problems, indeterminate parameter problems -- which include non-identifiable parameters and singular information matrices -- and change-point problems. The review focuses on the large-sample properties of the likelihood ratio statistic. We emphasize analytical solutions and acknowledge software implementations where available. We furthermore give summary insight about the possible tools to derivate the key results. Other approaches to hypothesis testing and connections to estimation are listed in the annotated bibliography of the Supplementary Material

    BRAMAC: Compute-in-BRAM Architectures for Multiply-Accumulate on FPGAs

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    Deep neural network (DNN) inference using reduced integer precision has been shown to achieve significant improvements in memory utilization and compute throughput with little or no accuracy loss compared to full-precision floating-point. Modern FPGA-based DNN inference relies heavily on the on-chip block RAM (BRAM) for model storage and the digital signal processing (DSP) unit for implementing the multiply-accumulate (MAC) operation, a fundamental DNN primitive. In this paper, we enhance the existing BRAM to also compute MAC by proposing BRAMAC (Compute-in-BR\underline{\text{BR}}AM A\underline{\text{A}}rchitectures for M\underline{\text{M}}ultiply-Ac\underline{\text{Ac}}cumulate). BRAMAC supports 2's complement 2- to 8-bit MAC in a small dummy BRAM array using a hybrid bit-serial & bit-parallel data flow. Unlike previous compute-in-BRAM architectures, BRAMAC allows read/write access to the main BRAM array while computing in the dummy BRAM array, enabling both persistent and tiling-based DNN inference. We explore two BRAMAC variants: BRAMAC-2SA (with 2 synchronous dummy arrays) and BRAMAC-1DA (with 1 double-pumped dummy array). BRAMAC-2SA/BRAMAC-1DA can boost the peak MAC throughput of a large Arria-10 FPGA by 2.6×\times/2.1×\times, 2.3×\times/2.0×\times, and 1.9×\times/1.7×\times for 2-bit, 4-bit, and 8-bit precisions, respectively at the cost of 6.8%/3.4% increase in the FPGA core area. By adding BRAMAC-2SA/BRAMAC-1DA to a state-of-the-art tiling-based DNN accelerator, an average speedup of 2.05×\times/1.7×\times and 1.33×\times/1.52×\times can be achieved for AlexNet and ResNet-34, respectively across different model precisions.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables, FCCM conference 202

    A Visual Modeling Method for Spatiotemporal and Multidimensional Features in Epidemiological Analysis: Applied COVID-19 Aggregated Datasets

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    The visual modeling method enables flexible interactions with rich graphical depictions of data and supports the exploration of the complexities of epidemiological analysis. However, most epidemiology visualizations do not support the combined analysis of objective factors that might influence the transmission situation, resulting in a lack of quantitative and qualitative evidence. To address this issue, we have developed a portrait-based visual modeling method called +msRNAer. This method considers the spatiotemporal features of virus transmission patterns and the multidimensional features of objective risk factors in communities, enabling portrait-based exploration and comparison in epidemiological analysis. We applied +msRNAer to aggregate COVID-19-related datasets in New South Wales, Australia, which combined COVID-19 case number trends, geo-information, intervention events, and expert-supervised risk factors extracted from LGA-based censuses. We perfected the +msRNAer workflow with collaborative views and evaluated its feasibility, effectiveness, and usefulness through one user study and three subject-driven case studies. Positive feedback from experts indicates that +msRNAer provides a general understanding of analyzing comprehension that not only compares relationships between cases in time-varying and risk factors through portraits but also supports navigation in fundamental geographical, timeline, and other factor comparisons. By adopting interactions, experts discovered functional and practical implications for potential patterns of long-standing community factors against the vulnerability faced by the pandemic. Experts confirmed that +msRNAer is expected to deliver visual modeling benefits with spatiotemporal and multidimensional features in other epidemiological analysis scenarios

    Examples of works to practice staccato technique in clarinet instrument

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    Klarnetin staccato tekniğini güçlendirme aşamaları eser çalışmalarıyla uygulanmıştır. Staccato geçişlerini hızlandıracak ritim ve nüans çalışmalarına yer verilmiştir. Çalışmanın en önemli amacı sadece staccato çalışması değil parmak-dilin eş zamanlı uyumunun hassasiyeti üzerinde de durulmasıdır. Staccato çalışmalarını daha verimli hale getirmek için eser çalışmasının içinde etüt çalışmasına da yer verilmiştir. Çalışmaların üzerinde titizlikle durulması staccato çalışmasının ilham verici etkisi ile müzikal kimliğe yeni bir boyut kazandırmıştır. Sekiz özgün eser çalışmasının her aşaması anlatılmıştır. Her aşamanın bir sonraki performans ve tekniği güçlendirmesi esas alınmıştır. Bu çalışmada staccato tekniğinin hangi alanlarda kullanıldığı, nasıl sonuçlar elde edildiği bilgisine yer verilmiştir. Notaların parmak ve dil uyumu ile nasıl şekilleneceği ve nasıl bir çalışma disiplini içinde gerçekleşeceği planlanmıştır. Kamış-nota-diyafram-parmak-dil-nüans ve disiplin kavramlarının staccato tekniğinde ayrılmaz bir bütün olduğu saptanmıştır. Araştırmada literatür taraması yapılarak staccato ile ilgili çalışmalar taranmıştır. Tarama sonucunda klarnet tekniğin de kullanılan staccato eser çalışmasının az olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Metot taramasında da etüt çalışmasının daha çok olduğu saptanmıştır. Böylelikle klarnetin staccato tekniğini hızlandırma ve güçlendirme çalışmaları sunulmuştur. Staccato etüt çalışmaları yapılırken, araya eser çalışmasının girmesi beyni rahatlattığı ve istekliliği daha arttırdığı gözlemlenmiştir. Staccato çalışmasını yaparken doğru bir kamış seçimi üzerinde de durulmuştur. Staccato tekniğini doğru çalışmak için doğru bir kamışın dil hızını arttırdığı saptanmıştır. Doğru bir kamış seçimi kamıştan rahat ses çıkmasına bağlıdır. Kamış, dil atma gücünü vermiyorsa daha doğru bir kamış seçiminin yapılması gerekliliği vurgulanmıştır. Staccato çalışmalarında baştan sona bir eseri yorumlamak zor olabilir. Bu açıdan çalışma, verilen müzikal nüanslara uymanın, dil atış performansını rahatlattığını ortaya koymuştur. Gelecek nesillere edinilen bilgi ve birikimlerin aktarılması ve geliştirici olması teşvik edilmiştir. Çıkacak eserlerin nasıl çözüleceği, staccato tekniğinin nasıl üstesinden gelinebileceği anlatılmıştır. Staccato tekniğinin daha kısa sürede çözüme kavuşturulması amaç edinilmiştir. Parmakların yerlerini öğrettiğimiz kadar belleğimize de çalışmaların kaydedilmesi önemlidir. Gösterilen azmin ve sabrın sonucu olarak ortaya çıkan yapıt başarıyı daha da yukarı seviyelere çıkaracaktır

    Bayesian Optimization with Conformal Prediction Sets

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    Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e. objective function queries) with maximal expected utility with respect to the posterior distribution of a Bayesian model, which quantifies reducible, epistemic uncertainty about query outcomes. In practice, subjectively implausible outcomes can occur regularly for two reasons: 1) model misspecification and 2) covariate shift. Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method with coverage guarantees even for misspecified models and a simple mechanism to correct for covariate shift. We propose conformal Bayesian optimization, which directs queries towards regions of search space where the model predictions have guaranteed validity, and investigate its behavior on a suite of black-box optimization tasks and tabular ranking tasks. In many cases we find that query coverage can be significantly improved without harming sample-efficiency.Comment: For code, see https://www.github.com/samuelstanton/conformal-bayesopt.gi

    Model Diagnostics meets Forecast Evaluation: Goodness-of-Fit, Calibration, and Related Topics

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    Principled forecast evaluation and model diagnostics are vital in fitting probabilistic models and forecasting outcomes of interest. A common principle is that fitted or predicted distributions ought to be calibrated, ideally in the sense that the outcome is indistinguishable from a random draw from the posited distribution. Much of this thesis is centered on calibration properties of various types of forecasts. In the first part of the thesis, a simple algorithm for exact multinomial goodness-of-fit tests is proposed. The algorithm computes exact pp-values based on various test statistics, such as the log-likelihood ratio and Pearson\u27s chi-square. A thorough analysis shows improvement on extant methods. However, the runtime of the algorithm grows exponentially in the number of categories and hence its use is limited. In the second part, a framework rooted in probability theory is developed, which gives rise to hierarchies of calibration, and applies to both predictive distributions and stand-alone point forecasts. Based on a general notion of conditional T-calibration, the thesis introduces population versions of T-reliability diagrams and revisits a score decomposition into measures of miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty. Stable and efficient estimators of T-reliability diagrams and score components arise via nonparametric isotonic regression and the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm. For in-sample model diagnostics, a universal coefficient of determination is introduced that nests and reinterprets the classical R2R^2 in least squares regression. In the third part, probabilistic top lists are proposed as a novel type of prediction in classification, which bridges the gap between single-class predictions and predictive distributions. The probabilistic top list functional is elicited by strictly consistent evaluation metrics, based on symmetric proper scoring rules, which admit comparison of various types of predictions

    A study of uncertainty quantification in overparametrized high-dimensional models

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    Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks. Several methods, ranging from temperature scaling to different Bayesian treatments of neural networks, have been proposed to mitigate overconfidence, most often supported by the numerical observation that they yield better calibrated uncertainty measures. In this work, we provide a sharp comparison between popular uncertainty measures for binary classification in a mathematically tractable model for overparametrized neural networks: the random features model. We discuss a trade-off between classification accuracy and calibration, unveiling a double descent like behavior in the calibration curve of optimally regularized estimators as a function of overparametrization. This is in contrast with the empirical Bayes method, which we show to be well calibrated in our setting despite the higher generalization error and overparametrization

    A Decision Support System for Economic Viability and Environmental Impact Assessment of Vertical Farms

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    Vertical farming (VF) is the practice of growing crops or animals using the vertical dimension via multi-tier racks or vertically inclined surfaces. In this thesis, I focus on the emerging industry of plant-specific VF. Vertical plant farming (VPF) is a promising and relatively novel practice that can be conducted in buildings with environmental control and artificial lighting. However, the nascent sector has experienced challenges in economic viability, standardisation, and environmental sustainability. Practitioners and academics call for a comprehensive financial analysis of VPF, but efforts are stifled by a lack of valid and available data. A review of economic estimation and horticultural software identifies a need for a decision support system (DSS) that facilitates risk-empowered business planning for vertical farmers. This thesis proposes an open-source DSS framework to evaluate business sustainability through financial risk and environmental impact assessments. Data from the literature, alongside lessons learned from industry practitioners, would be centralised in the proposed DSS using imprecise data techniques. These techniques have been applied in engineering but are seldom used in financial forecasting. This could benefit complex sectors which only have scarce data to predict business viability. To begin the execution of the DSS framework, VPF practitioners were interviewed using a mixed-methods approach. Learnings from over 19 shuttered and operational VPF projects provide insights into the barriers inhibiting scalability and identifying risks to form a risk taxonomy. Labour was the most commonly reported top challenge. Therefore, research was conducted to explore lean principles to improve productivity. A probabilistic model representing a spectrum of variables and their associated uncertainty was built according to the DSS framework to evaluate the financial risk for VF projects. This enabled flexible computation without precise production or financial data to improve economic estimation accuracy. The model assessed two VPF cases (one in the UK and another in Japan), demonstrating the first risk and uncertainty quantification of VPF business models in the literature. The results highlighted measures to improve economic viability and the viability of the UK and Japan case. The environmental impact assessment model was developed, allowing VPF operators to evaluate their carbon footprint compared to traditional agriculture using life-cycle assessment. I explore strategies for net-zero carbon production through sensitivity analysis. Renewable energies, especially solar, geothermal, and tidal power, show promise for reducing the carbon emissions of indoor VPF. Results show that renewably-powered VPF can reduce carbon emissions compared to field-based agriculture when considering the land-use change. The drivers for DSS adoption have been researched, showing a pathway of compliance and design thinking to overcome the ‘problem of implementation’ and enable commercialisation. Further work is suggested to standardise VF equipment, collect benchmarking data, and characterise risks. This work will reduce risk and uncertainty and accelerate the sector’s emergence

    Discovering the hidden structure of financial markets through bayesian modelling

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    Understanding what is driving the price of a financial asset is a question that is currently mostly unanswered. In this work we go beyond the classic one step ahead prediction and instead construct models that create new information on the behaviour of these time series. Our aim is to get a better understanding of the hidden structures that drive the moves of each financial time series and thus the market as a whole. We propose a tool to decompose multiple time series into economically-meaningful variables to explain the endogenous and exogenous factors driving their underlying variability. The methodology we introduce goes beyond the direct model forecast. Indeed, since our model continuously adapts its variables and coefficients, we can study the time series of coefficients and selected variables. We also present a model to construct the causal graph of relations between these time series and include them in the exogenous factors. Hence, we obtain a model able to explain what is driving the move of both each specific time series and the market as a whole. In addition, the obtained graph of the time series provides new information on the underlying risk structure of this environment. With this deeper understanding of the hidden structure we propose novel ways to detect and forecast risks in the market. We investigate our results with inferences up to one month into the future using stocks, FX futures and ETF futures, demonstrating its superior performance according to accuracy of large moves, longer-term prediction and consistency over time. We also go in more details on the economic interpretation of the new variables and discuss the created graph structure of the market.Open Acces

    The determinants of value addition: a crtitical analysis of global software engineering industry in Sri Lanka

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    It was evident through the literature that the perceived value delivery of the global software engineering industry is low due to various facts. Therefore, this research concerns global software product companies in Sri Lanka to explore the software engineering methods and practices in increasing the value addition. The overall aim of the study is to identify the key determinants for value addition in the global software engineering industry and critically evaluate the impact of them for the software product companies to help maximise the value addition to ultimately assure the sustainability of the industry. An exploratory research approach was used initially since findings would emerge while the study unfolds. Mixed method was employed as the literature itself was inadequate to investigate the problem effectively to formulate the research framework. Twenty-three face-to-face online interviews were conducted with the subject matter experts covering all the disciplines from the targeted organisations which was combined with the literature findings as well as the outcomes of the market research outcomes conducted by both government and nongovernment institutes. Data from the interviews were analysed using NVivo 12. The findings of the existing literature were verified through the exploratory study and the outcomes were used to formulate the questionnaire for the public survey. 371 responses were considered after cleansing the total responses received for the data analysis through SPSS 21 with alpha level 0.05. Internal consistency test was done before the descriptive analysis. After assuring the reliability of the dataset, the correlation test, multiple regression test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) test were carried out to fulfil the requirements of meeting the research objectives. Five determinants for value addition were identified along with the key themes for each area. They are staffing, delivery process, use of tools, governance, and technology infrastructure. The cross-functional and self-organised teams built around the value streams, employing a properly interconnected software delivery process with the right governance in the delivery pipelines, selection of tools and providing the right infrastructure increases the value delivery. Moreover, the constraints for value addition are poor interconnection in the internal processes, rigid functional hierarchies, inaccurate selections and uses of tools, inflexible team arrangements and inadequate focus for the technology infrastructure. The findings add to the existing body of knowledge on increasing the value addition by employing effective processes, practices and tools and the impacts of inaccurate applications the same in the global software engineering industry
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