Second-order Quantile Methods for Experts and Combinatorial Games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles

An efficient algorithm for learning with semi-bandit feedback

We consider the problem of online combinatorial optimization under semi-bandit feedback. The goal of the learner is to sequentially select its actions from a combinatorial decision set so as to minimize its cumulative loss. We propose a learning algorithm for this problem based on combining the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FPL) prediction method with a novel loss estimation procedure called Geometric Resampling (GR). Contrary to previous solutions, the resulting algorithm can be efficiently implemented for any decision set where efficient offline combinatorial optimization is possible at all. Assuming that the elements of the decision set can be described with d-dimensional binary vectors with at most m non-zero entries, we show that the expected regret of our algorithm after T rounds is O(m sqrt(dT log d)). As a side result, we also improve the best known regret bounds for FPL in the full information setting to O(m^(3/2) sqrt(T log d)), gaining a factor of sqrt(d/m) over previous bounds for this algorithm.Comment: submitted to ALT 201

First-order regret bounds for combinatorial semi-bandits

We consider the problem of online combinatorial optimization under semi-bandit feedback, where a learner has to repeatedly pick actions from a combinatorial decision set in order to minimize the total losses associated with its decisions. After making each decision, the learner observes the losses associated with its action, but not other losses. For this problem, there are several learning algorithms that guarantee that the learner's expected regret grows as $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ with the number of rounds $T$. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that improves this scaling to $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{{L_T^*}})$, where $L_T^*$ is the total loss of the best action. Our algorithm is among the first to achieve such guarantees in a partial-feedback scheme, and the first one to do so in a combinatorial setting.Comment: To appear at COLT 201

High-Dimensional Prediction for Sequential Decision Making

We study the problem of making predictions of an adversarially chosen high-dimensional state that are unbiased subject to an arbitrary collection of conditioning events, with the goal of tailoring these events to downstream decision makers. We give efficient algorithms for solving this problem, as well as a number of applications that stem from choosing an appropriate set of conditioning events. For example, we can efficiently make predictions targeted at polynomially many decision makers, giving each of them optimal swap regret if they best-respond to our predictions. We generalize this to online combinatorial optimization, where the decision makers have a very large action space, to give the first algorithms offering polynomially many decision makers no regret on polynomially many subsequences that may depend on their actions and the context. We apply these results to get efficient no-subsequence-regret algorithms in extensive-form games (EFGs), yielding a new family of regret guarantees for EFGs that generalizes some existing EFG regret notions, e.g. regret to informed causal deviations, and is generally incomparable to other known such notions. Next, we develop a novel transparent alternative to conformal prediction for building valid online adversarial multiclass prediction sets. We produce class scores that downstream algorithms can use for producing valid-coverage prediction sets, as if these scores were the true conditional class probabilities. We show this implies strong conditional validity guarantees including set-size-conditional and multigroup-fair coverage for polynomially many downstream prediction sets. Moreover, our class scores can be guaranteed to have improved $L_2$ loss, cross-entropy loss, and generally any Bregman loss, compared to any collection of benchmark models, yielding a high-dimensional real-valued version of omniprediction.Comment: Added references, Arxiv abstract edite