AGENT-BASED DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODELING AND EVOLUTIONARY REAL-TIME DECISION MAKING FOR LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS

Computer simulations are routines programmed to imitate detailed system operations. They are utilized to evaluate system performance and/or predict future behaviors under certain settings. In complex cases where system operations cannot be formulated explicitly by analytical models, simulations become the dominant mode of analysis as they can model systems without relying on unrealistic or limiting assumptions and represent actual systems more faithfully. Two main streams exist in current simulation research and practice: discrete event simulation and agent-based simulation. This dissertation facilitates the marriage of the two. By integrating the agent-based modeling concepts into the discrete event simulation framework, we can take advantage of and eliminate the disadvantages of both methods.Although simulation can represent complex systems realistically, it is a descriptive tool without the capability of making decisions. However, it can be complemented by incorporating optimization routines. The most challenging problem is that large-scale simulation models normally take a considerable amount of computer time to execute so that the number of solution evaluations needed by most optimization algorithms is not feasible within a reasonable time frame. This research develops a highly efficient evolutionary simulation-based decision making procedure which can be applied in real-time management situations. It basically divides the entire process time horizon into a series of small time intervals and operates simulation optimization algorithms for those small intervals separately and iteratively. This method improves computational tractability by decomposing long simulation runs; it also enhances system dynamics by incorporating changing information/data as the event unfolds. With respect to simulation optimization, this procedure solves efficient analytical models which can approximate the simulation and guide the search procedure to approach near optimality quickly.The methods of agent-based discrete event simulation modeling and evolutionary simulation-based decision making developed in this dissertation are implemented to solve a set of disaster response planning problems. This research also investigates a unique approach to validating low-probability, high-impact simulation systems based on a concrete example problem. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our model compared to other existing systems

Developing an Adaptive Building Evacuation Simulation and Decision Support Framework using Cognitive Agent-Based Modelling

Preparing for an unprecedented event involving the movement of populations could take up large amounts of resources if done conventionally. The main motivation of this study is the behavioural modification approach which is an underexplored potential in evacuation dynamics, offering new possibilities in terms of practicality and ease of implementation. This paper tackles an adaptive building evacuation simulation and decision support framework that will serve as a guide to evaluate and propose evacuation strategies for disaster management researchers and decision-making authorities. The framework mainly involves the formulation of the cognitive agent model, the evacuation simulation, and the decision support. The timeliness in the Philippine context of the long-overdue “Big One” earthquake, the vulnerability of the case study, and the capability of the framework to be a standard guide where components can be customized by users based on the disaster type and site-specific requirements make this research a significant undertaking

Agent-Based Emergency Evacuation Simulation with Individuals with Disabilities in the Population

Catastrophic events have raised numerous issues concerning how effectively the built environment accommodates the evacuation needs of individuals with disabilities. Individuals with disabilities represent a significant, yet often overlooked, portion of the population disproportionately affected in emergency situations. Incorporating disability considerations into emergency evacuation planning, preparation, and other activities is critical. The most widely applied method used to evaluate how effectively the built environment accommodates emergency evacuations is agent-based or microsimulation modeling. However, current evacuation models do not adequately address individuals with disabilities in their simulated populations. This manuscript describes the BUMMPEE model, an agent-based simulation capable of classifying the built environment according to environmental characteristics and simulating a heterogeneous population according to variation in individual criteria. The method allows for simulated behaviors which more aptly represent the diversity and prevalence of disabilities in the population and their interaction with the built environment. Comparison of the results of an evacuation simulated using the BUMMPEE model is comparable to a physical evacuation with a similar population and setting. The results of the comparison indicate that the BUMMPEE model is a reasonable approach for simulating evacuations representing the diversity and prevalence of disability in the populationAgent-Based Simulation, Individual-Based Simulation, Disability, Emergency Egress, Evacuation, Reinforcement Learning

Learning-to-Dispatch: Reinforcement Learning Based Flight Planning under Emergency

The effectiveness of resource allocation under emergencies especially hurricane disasters is crucial. However, most researchers focus on emergency resource allocation in a ground transportation system. In this paper, we propose Learning-to- Dispatch (L2D), a reinforcement learning (RL) based air route dispatching system, that aims to add additional flights for hurricane evacuation while minimizing the airspace’s complexity and air traffic controller’s workload. Given a bipartite graph with weights that are learned from the historical flight data using RL in consideration of short- and long-term gains, we formulate the flight dispatch as an online maximum weight matching problem. Different from the conventional order dispatch problem, there is no actual or estimated index that can evaluate how the additional evacuation flights influence the air traffic complexity. Then we propose a multivariate reward function in the learning phase and compare it with other univariate reward designs to show its superior performance. The experiments using the real world dataset for Hurricane Irma demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of our proposed schema

Students' evacuation behavior during an emergency at schools:A systematic literature review

Disasters and emergencies frequently happen, and some of them require population evacuation. Children can be severely affected during evacuations due to their lower capability to analyze, perceive, and answer disaster risks. Although several studies attempted to address the safety of children during the evacuation, the existing literature lacks a systematic review of students' evacuation behavior during school time. Therefore, this study aims to conduct a systematic literature review to explore how students' evacuation behavior during school time has been addressed by previous scholars and identify gaps in knowledge. The review process included three steps: formulating the research question, establishing strategic search strategies, and data extraction and analysis. The studies have been identified by searching academic search engines and refined the recognized publications unbiasedly. The researchers have then thematically analyzed the objectives and findings of the selected studies resulting in the identification of seven themes in the field of students' evacuation behavior during school time. Finally, the study put forward suggestions for future research directions to efficiently address the recognized knowledge gaps.</p

Ready or Not? Protecting the Public's Health From Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism, 2011

Highlights examples of preparedness programs and capacities at risk of federal budget cuts or elimination, examines state and local public health budget cuts, reviews ten years of progress and shortfalls, and outlines policy issues and recommendations

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio