Episodic accretion: the interplay of infall and disc instabilities

Using zoom-simulations carried out with the adaptive mesh-refinement code RAMSES with a dynamic range of up to $2^{27} \approx 1.34 \times 10^8$ we investigate the accretion profiles around six stars embedded in different environments inside a (40 pc)$^3$ giant molecular cloud, the role of mass infall and disc instabilities on the accretion profile, and thus on the luminosity of the forming protostar. Our results show that the environment in which the protostar is embedded determines the overall accretion profile of the protostar. Infall on to the circumstellar disc may trigger gravitational disc instabilities in the disc at distances of around ~10 to ~50 au leading to rapid transport of angular momentum and strong accretion bursts. These bursts typically last for about ~10 to a ~100 yr, consistent with typical orbital times at the location of the instability, and enhance the luminosity of the protostar. Calculations with the stellar evolution code mesa show that the accretion bursts induce significant changes in the protostellar proper- ties, such as the stellar temperature and radius. We apply the obtained protostellar properties to produce synthetic observables with RADMC3D and predict that accretion bursts lead to ob- servable enhancements around 20 to 200 $\mu$m in the spectral energy distribution of Class 0 type young stellar objects.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, accepted by MNRA

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a 3-Dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of Solar System and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2 (Schmidt et al. 2014), is used to simulate modern and 21st Century Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (slowly rotating to more rapidly rotating than modern Earth, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the Solar System such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents we can then expand its capabilities further to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past and those to be discovered in the future. We discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.Comment: Revisions since previous draft. Now submitted to Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network

Pinwheels in the sky, with dust: 3D modeling of the Wolf-Rayet 98a environment

The Wolf-Rayet 98a (WR 98a) system is a prime target for interferometric surveys, since its identification as a "rotating pinwheel nebulae", where infrared images display a spiral dust lane revolving with a 1.4 year periodicity. WR 98a hosts a WC9+OB star, and the presence of dust is puzzling given the extreme luminosities of Wolf-Rayet stars. We present 3D hydrodynamic models for WR 98a, where dust creation and redistribution are self-consistently incorporated. Our grid-adaptive simulations resolve details in the wind collision region at scales below one percent of the orbital separation (~4 AU), while simulating up to 1300 AU. We cover several orbital periods under conditions where the gas component alone behaves adiabatic, or is subject to effective radiative cooling. In the adiabatic case, mixing between stellar winds is effective in a well-defined spiral pattern, where optimal conditions for dust creation are met. When radiative cooling is incorporated, the interaction gets dominated by thermal instabilities along the wind collision region, and dust concentrates in clumps and filaments in a volume-filling fashion, so WR 98a must obey close to adiabatic evolutions to demonstrate the rotating pinwheel structure. We mimic Keck, ALMA or future E-ELT observations and confront photometric long-term monitoring. We predict an asymmetry in the dust distribution between leading and trailing edge of the spiral, show that ALMA and E-ELT would be able to detect fine-structure in the spiral indicative of Kelvin-Helmholtz development, and confirm the variation in photometry due to the orientation. Historic Keck images are reproduced, but their resolution is insufficient to detect the details we predict.Comment: Accepted for publication in mnra

Report from the Tri-Agency Cosmological Simulation Task Force

The Tri-Agency Cosmological Simulations (TACS) Task Force was formed when Program Managers from the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) expressed an interest in receiving input into the cosmological simulations landscape related to the upcoming DOE/NSF Vera Rubin Observatory (Rubin), NASA/ESA's Euclid, and NASA's Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). The Co-Chairs of TACS, Katrin Heitmann and Alina Kiessling, invited community scientists from the USA and Europe who are each subject matter experts and are also members of one or more of the surveys to contribute. The following report represents the input from TACS that was delivered to the Agencies in December 2018.Comment: 36 pages, 3 figures. Delivered to NASA, NSF, and DOE in Dec 201