EEMCS final report for the causal modeling for air transport safety (CATS) project

This document reports on the work realized by the DIAM in relation to the completion of the CATS model as presented in Figure 1.6 and tries to explain some of the steps taken for its completion. The project spans over a period of time of three years. Intermediate reports have been presented throughout the project’s progress. These are presented in Appendix 1. In this report the continuous‐discrete distribution‐free BBNs are briefly discussed. The human reliability models developed for dealing with dependence in the model variables are described and the software application UniNet is presente

A Bayesian Belief Network to Infer Incentive Mechanisms to Reduce Antibiotic Use in Livestock Production

Efficient policy intervention to reduce antibiotic use in livestock production requires knowledge about the rationale underlying antibiotic usage. Animal health status and management quality are considered the two most important factors that influence farmers’ decision-making concerning antibiotic use. Information on these two factors is therefore crucial in designing incentive mechanisms. In this paper, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) is built to represent the knowledge on how these factors can directly and indirectly determine antibiotic use and the possible impact on economic incentives. Since both factors are not directly observable (i.e. latent), they are inferred from measurable variables (i.e. manifest variables) which are influenced by these factors. Using farm accounting data and registration data on antibiotic use and veterinary services in specialized finisher pig production farms, a confirmatory factor analysis was carried out to construct these factors. The BBN is then parameterized through regression analysis on the constructed factors and manifest variables. Using the BBN, possible incentive mechanisms through prices and management training are discussed.Livestock Production/Industries,

What Turkey expects from logistics outsourcing ?

Copyright @ 2011 Yasar UniversityThe economies of the world have become increasingly interdependent, and organizations have come under tremendous pressure to maximize productivity and profitability. Creating value through outsourcing has emerged as a popular competitive strategy for firms of all sizes in all types of industries. The aim of this research is to investigate the use of third party logistics in Turkish companies from the users’ perspective to identify the types of logistics services outsourced, problems encountered in outsourcing these services, logistics costs, decision makers in outsourcing logistics activities, and information sources used in the decision-making process. A structured survey was selected as the tool for data collection. The field study involved face-to-face interviews with 204 companies out of top 500 companies ranked in terms of turnover that are registered with industrial associations and chambers of commerce in Turkey. Moreover, a decision support system based on Bayesian Causal Map is proposed for 3PLs in order to assist them in their service proposals for different sectors. This study is a first attempt to reveal and compare the outsourcing perception of the companies in different sectors, to expose the firms’ underlying motives as well as the respective importance of these motives for outsourcing logistics activities in Turkey. The use of Bayesian Causal Map based on the survey results provides an important guide to the 3PL providers to pick a suitable strategy and to prioritize their operational activities in different sectors in such a way to achieve a competitive advantage

Integration of decision support systems to improve decision support performance

Decision support system (DSS) is a well-established research and development area. Traditional isolated, stand-alone DSS has been recently facing new challenges. In order to improve the performance of DSS to meet the challenges, research has been actively carried out to develop integrated decision support systems (IDSS). This paper reviews the current research efforts with regard to the development of IDSS. The focus of the paper is on the integration aspect for IDSS through multiple perspectives, and the technologies that support this integration. More than 100 papers and software systems are discussed. Current research efforts and the development status of IDSS are explained, compared and classified. In addition, future trends and challenges in integration are outlined. The paper concludes that by addressing integration, better support will be provided to decision makers, with the expectation of both better decisions and improved decision making processes

Nuclear Theory and Science of the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams

The Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) will be a world-leading laboratory for the study of nuclear structure, reactions and astrophysics. Experiments with intense beams of rare isotopes produced at FRIB will guide us toward a comprehensive description of nuclei, elucidate the origin of the elements in the cosmos, help provide an understanding of matter in neutron stars, and establish the scientific foundation for innovative applications of nuclear science to society. FRIB will be essential for gaining access to key regions of the nuclear chart, where the measured nuclear properties will challenge established concepts, and highlight shortcomings and needed modifications to current theory. Conversely, nuclear theory will play a critical role in providing the intellectual framework for the science at FRIB, and will provide invaluable guidance to FRIB's experimental programs. This article overviews the broad scope of the FRIB theory effort, which reaches beyond the traditional fields of nuclear structure and reactions, and nuclear astrophysics, to explore exciting interdisciplinary boundaries with other areas. \keywords{Nuclear Structure and Reactions. Nuclear Astrophysics. Fundamental Interactions. High Performance Computing. Rare Isotopes. Radioactive Beams.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Acumen: An interactive multimedia simulation based on situated learning theory

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a multimedia simulation for teaching research skills to business students. Graphics, sound and video are used to create semi- realistic ' microworlds' which students explore in order to solve a relatively unstructured problem, a process quite different to learning from textbooks, lectures or videos. One advantage of microworlds is that students construct meaning by actively and selectively working through a variety of information sources, a process which mimics real-world learning and enhances higher- order learning outcomes. We describe the theoretical principles used in designing the simulation, particularly situated learning theory which claims a number of advantages for teaching that is 'situated' in the context of real world problems. There is also evidence that the 'immersive' quality of microworlds may be more motivating than other teaching/ learning modes, at least to some students. As the technology for creating media- rich simulations is still new, we discuss the issue of how realistic simulations should be. Our multimedia package can be related to a long tradition of teaching methods in business that attempt to put theoretical principles into life-like contexts, via case studies, experiential learning, internships, or real-world projects. The advantages and disadvantages of computer microworlds over such methods are explored