Duration and Term Structure of Trade Agreements

Why are some trade agreements concluded for a limited period of time while others have the form of evergreen contracts supplemented with an advance termination notice clause? We use a dynamic incomplete contracting model to demonstrate that the time structure of the trade agreement is related to the nature of the underlying trade-related investments (or other types of irreversible resource adjustments). If these investments are lumpy and specialized to trade in a particular homogeneous good, the agreements with the \u85xed term of duration are more likely. The xed-term agreement provides incentives for the initial investment but leaves the parties the exibility to revisit the need for future investment by resorting to renegotiation. If the agreement covers trade in goods or services requiring incremental investments with spillovers of the investment bene\u85ts across industries, there is a lower risk of overinvestment. Therefore, the parties are more likely to choose an evergreen agreement (with an advance termination notice or an escape clause). We show that these predictions are consistent with the econometric evidence on the trade agreements to which the U.S. is a party. We are grateful to Arnaud Costinot, Petros Mavroidis, Marc Melitz and the participants of the Midwest In

Trade related business climate and manufacturing export performance in Africa: A firm-level analysis

Africa continues to be marginalised in world trade of manufactured goods, despite reductions in tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This paper investigates whether high business and trade costs associated with Africa’s trade-related infrastructure, trade institutions and the regulatory environment have contributed towards its mediocre trade performance. The paper focuses on eight African countries - Egypt, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Morocco, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia - using the World Bank’s investment climate surveys. The results of the study suggest that the business climate, as measured using principal components for micro-level supply constraints, macroeconomic conditions and the legal environment, is closely associated with firm-level export propensity. Improvements in domestic policy may therefore have a considerable positive impact on manufacturing export performance in Africa

Duration and Term Structure of Trade Agreements

Why are some trade agreements concluded for a limited period of time while others have the form of evergreen contracts supplemented with an advance termination notice clause? We use a dynamic incomplete contracting model to demonstrate that the time structure of the trade agreement is related to the nature of the underlying trade-related investments (or other types of irreversible resource adjustments). If these investments are lumpy and specialized to trade in a particular homogeneous good, the agreements with the fixed term of duration are more likely. The fixed-term agreement provides incentives for the initial investment but leaves the parties the flexibility to revisit the need for future investment by resorting to renegotiation. If the agreement covers trade in goods or services requiring incremental investments with spillovers of the investment benefits across industries, there is a lower risk of overinvestment. Therefore, the parties are more likely to choose an evergreen agreement (with an advance termination notice or an escape clause). We show that these predictions are consistent with the econometric evidence on the trade agreements to which the U.S. is a party.

Test of the German Resilience

From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external demand, in turn, has elevated German GDP growth volatility by advanced countries’ standards, keeping domestic consumption growth at surprisingly low levels. As a consequence, despite the size of its economy and important labor market reforms, Germany’s ability to act as global locomotive has been limited. With increasing competition in its traditional areas of manufacturing, a more domestically-driven growth dynamic, especially in the production and delivery of services, will be good for Germany and for the global economy. Absent such an effort, German growth will remain constrained, and Germany will play only a modest role in spurring growth elsewhere

What explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows ?

Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide range of observed country and product characteristics. This questions previous studies that have used the Cox proportional hazards model to model export survival. The authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of products as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market are found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies.Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Trade Policy,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access

Inward foreign direct investment and constitutional change in Scotland

Purpose - To undertake an analysis of the implications of potential Scottish independence for inward foreign direct investment (FDI), multinational enterprise strategies, and the local economy.<p></p> Design/methodology/approach - Takes a multidisciplinary approach drawing upon literature and evidence in the international business and management, political economy, and economic geography fields to analyze the role and impact of inward FDI in Scotland following possible Scottish independence.<p></p> Findings - Scotland continues as an attractive location for FDI, with greater diversity than hitherto. While the country’s comparative advantages in immobile natural resources provide some protection from uncertainty, weak embeddedness is a risk factor irrespective of independence. A range of transition costs of independence are identified, which could be high and of indeterminate duration, and some will be sector-specific. There are also new possibilities for tailoring of policies, and potential reindustrialization opportunities in renewable technologies. The foreign investors most vulnerable to political risks and uncertainties are those whose market scope is the rest of the UK (rUK) either as exporters or value chain integrators, in addition to the high political risk industries of energy, banking, and financial services and defence. Scottish subsidiaries’ significance within their parent MNE groups will also be a major factor in determining responses to political risks and uncertainties.<p></p> Originality/value - Specific focus upon the impact of potential independence on the foreign-owned sector as a major contributor to the Scottish economy.<p></p&gt

A benefit cost analysis on management strategies for Queensland Fruit Fly: methods and observations

The Queensland Fruit Fly (QFF) — Bactrocera tryoni — poses a significant threat to horticultural production in Victoria causing losses of fruit and jeopardising access to interstate and international markets. The Victorian Government implements and largely funds an area freedom program to manage QFF. Concern about the record number of outbreaks in 2007-08 and the escalating costs of maintaining the current management regime, led the Victorian Department of Primary Industries to review the program to identify improved strategies for managing QFF. As part of this work, a benefit cost analysis (BCA) of alternative strategies has been conducted. While the BCA method is well established, in general few studies are publicly available for area freedom programs. In this paper a number of the practical issues encountered in analysing area freedom are detailed, such as estimating welfare effects, how to consider social and environmental costs and benefits and incorporating risk for managing pests. Implications for policy and the design of future programs are discussed. The approach and issues identified in this paper provide insights for other agencies undertaking similar BCAs to inform biosecurity policy.International Relations/Trade,

Exports, production and uncertainty

Includes bibliographical references (p