Implementation of U.K. Earth system models for CMIP6

We describe the scientific and technical implementation of two models for a core set of experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models used are the physical atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model HadGEM3-GC3.1 and the Earth system model UKESM1 which adds a carbon-nitrogen cycle and atmospheric chemistry to HadGEM3-GC3.1. The model results are constrained by the external boundary conditions (forcing data) and initial conditions.We outline the scientific rationale and assumptions made in specifying these. Notable details of the implementation include an ozone redistribution scheme for prescribed ozone simulations (HadGEM3-GC3.1) to avoid inconsistencies with the model's thermal tropopause, and land use change in dynamic vegetation simulations (UKESM1) whose influence will be subject to potential biases in the simulation of background natural vegetation.We discuss the implications of these decisions for interpretation of the simulation results. These simulations are expensive in terms of human and CPU resources and will underpin many further experiments; we describe some of the technical steps taken to ensure their scientific robustness and reproducibility

Program management model study

Two models, a system performance model and a program assessment model, have been developed to assist NASA management in the evaluation of development alternatives for the Earth Observations Program. Two computer models were developed and demonstrated on the Goddard Space Flight Center Computer Facility. Procedures have been outlined to guide the user of the models through specific evaluation processes, and the preparation of inputs describing earth observation needs and earth observation technology. These models are intended to assist NASA in increasing the effectiveness of the overall Earth Observation Program by providing a broader view of system and program development alternatives

Computation of a combined spherical-elastic and viscous-half-space earth model for ice sheet simulation

This report starts by describing the continuum model used by Lingle & Clark (1985) to approximate the deformation of the earth under changing ice sheet and ocean loads. That source considers a single ice stream, but we apply their underlying model to continent-scale ice sheet simulation. Their model combines Farrell's (1972) elastic spherical earth with a viscous half-space overlain by an elastic plate lithosphere. The latter half-space model is derivable from calculations by Cathles (1975). For the elastic spherical earth we use Farrell's tabulated Green's function, as do Lingle & Clark. For the half-space model, however, we propose and implement a significantly faster numerical strategy, a spectral collocation method (Trefethen 2000) based directly on the Fast Fourier Transform. To verify this method we compare to an integral formula for a disc load. To compare earth models we build an accumulation history from a growing similarity solution from (Bueler, et al.~2005) and and simulate the coupled (ice flow)-(earth deformation) system. In the case of simple isostasy the exact solution to this system is known. We demonstrate that the magnitudes of numerical errors made in approximating the ice-earth system are significantly smaller than pairwise differences between several earth models, namely, simple isostasy, the current standard model used in ice sheet simulation (Greve 2001, Hagdorn 2003, Zweck & Huybrechts 2005), and the Lingle & Clark model. Therefore further efforts to validate different earth models used in ice sheet simulations are, not surprisingly, worthwhile.Comment: 36 pages, 16 figures, 3 Matlab program

Quantitative modelling of the human–Earth System a new kind of science?

The five grand challenges set out for Earth System Science by the International Council for Science in 2010 require a true fusion of social science, economics and natural science—a fusion that has not yet been achieved. In this paper we propose that constructing quantitative models of the dynamics of the human–Earth system can serve as a catalyst for this fusion. We confront well-known objections to modelling societal dynamics by drawing lessons from the development of natural science over the last four centuries and applying them to social and economic science. First, we pose three questions that require real integration of the three fields of science. They concern the coupling of physical planetary boundaries via social processes; the extension of the concept of planetary boundaries to the human–Earth System; and the possibly self-defeating nature of the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals. Second, we ask whether there are regularities or ‘attractors’ in the human–Earth System analogous to those that prompted the search for laws of nature. We nominate some candidates and discuss why we should observe them given that human actors with foresight and intentionality play a fundamental role in the human–Earth System. We conclude that, at sufficiently large time and space scales, social processes are predictable in some sense. Third, we canvass some essential mathematical techniques that this research fusion must incorporate, and we ask what kind of data would be needed to validate or falsify our models. Finally, we briefly review the state of the art in quantitative modelling of the human–Earth System today and highlight a gap between so-called integrated assessment models applied at regional and global scale, which could be filled by a new scale of model

Earth and Terrestrial Planet Formation

The growth and composition of Earth is a direct consequence of planet formation throughout the Solar System. We discuss the known history of the Solar System, the proposed stages of growth and how the early stages of planet formation may be dominated by pebble growth processes. Pebbles are small bodies whose strong interactions with the nebula gas lead to remarkable new accretion mechanisms for the formation of planetesimals and the growth of planetary embryos. Many of the popular models for the later stages of planet formation are presented. The classical models with the giant planets on fixed orbits are not consistent with the known history of the Solar System, fail to create a high Earth/Mars mass ratio, and, in many cases, are also internally inconsistent. The successful Grand Tack model creates a small Mars, a wet Earth, a realistic asteroid belt and the mass-orbit structure of the terrestrial planets. In the Grand Tack scenario, growth curves for Earth most closely match a Weibull model. The feeding zones, which determine the compositions of Earth and Venus follow a particular pattern determined by Jupiter, while the feeding zones of Mars and Theia, the last giant impactor on Earth, appear to randomly sample the terrestrial disk. The late accreted mass samples the disk nearly evenly.Comment: Accepted for publication in Early Earth an AGU Monograph edited by James Badro and Michael J. Walte

The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value

Climate models miss most of the coarse dust in the atmosphere.

Coarse mineral dust (diameter, ≥5 μm) is an important component of the Earth system that affects clouds, ocean ecosystems, and climate. Despite their significance, climate models consistently underestimate the amount of coarse dust in the atmosphere when compared to measurements. Here, we estimate the global load of coarse dust using a framework that leverages dozens of measurements of atmospheric dust size distributions. We find that the atmosphere contains 17 Tg of coarse dust, which is four times more than current climate models simulate. Our findings indicate that models deposit coarse dust out of the atmosphere too quickly. Accounting for this missing coarse dust adds a warming effect of 0.15 W·m-2 and increases the likelihood that dust net warms the climate system. We conclude that to properly represent the impact of dust on the Earth system, climate models must include an accurate treatment of coarse dust in the atmosphere