An Inference about Interference: A Surprising Application of Existing International Law to Inhibit Anti-Satellite Weapons

This article presents a thesis that most readers will find surprising, in an effort to develop a novel, simultaneous solution to three urgent, complex problems related to outer space. The three problems are: a) the technical fact that debris in outer space (the accumulated orbital junk produced by decades of space activities) has grown to present a serious hazard to safe and effective exploration and exploitation of space; b) the strategic fact that many countries (notably the United States, China and Russia, but others, too) continue to demonstrate a misguided interest in pursuing anti-satellite weapons, which can jeopardize the security of space; and c) the political fact that attempts to provide additional legal regulation of outer space (via new bilateral or multilateral international agreements) have failed, with little prospect for prompt conclusion of meaningful new accords. The proposed solution is to adapt existing international law in an unforeseen way. Specifically, numerous current and historical arms control treaties provide for verification of parties’ compliance via “national technical means” (NTM) of verification, which prominently include satellite-based sensory and communications systems. These treaties routinely provide protection for those essential space assets by requiring parties to undertake “not to interfere” with NTM. The argument developed here is that additional tests in space of debris-creating anti-satellite weapons would already be illegal, even without the conclusion of any dedicated new treaty against further weaponization of space, because in the current crowded conditions of space, a new cloud of orbital debris would, sooner or later, impermissibly interfere with NTM satellites. If sustained, this thesis can provide a new rationale for opposition to the development, testing, and use of anti-satellite weapons. It a legal reinforcement for the political instincts to avoid activities that further undercut the optimal usability of outer space, and it demonstrates how creative re-interpretation of existing legal provisions can promote the advancement of the rule of international law, even in circumstances where the articulation of new treaties is blocked

Environmental Security and its Implications for China’s Foreign Relations

China’s emerging standing in the world demands a major rethinking of its diplomatic strategies. Given its population size, geographical scale, economic power and military presence, China is poised to play a larger political role in the twenty-first century, and is thus perceived by the international community to have greater capacities, capabilities and responsibilities. At the same time, environmental stresses caused by China’s energy and resources demands have become increasingly evident in recent years, urging China to cultivate delicate diplomatic relations with its neighbors and strategic partners. Tensions have been seen in areas such as transboundary air pollution, cross-border water resources management and resources exploitation, and more recently in global issues such as climate change. As the Chinese leadership begins to embrace the identity of a responsible developing country, it is becoming apparent that while unabated resources demands and environmental deterioration may pose a great threat to environmental security, a shared sense of urgency could foster enhanced cooperation. For China to move beyond existing and probable diplomatic tensions, a greater attention to domestic and regional environmental security will no doubt be necessary. This article explores such interrelations among domestic, regional and global environmental securities and China’s diplomacy, and suggests possible means by which China could contribute to strengthening global environmental security.Acid Rain, Climate Change, Energy, Environmental Security, Transboundary Air Pollution, Water Resource Management, Asia

The Eurozone debt crisis and the role of China. EU Centre Policy Brief Number 3, November 2011

In early November 2011, the President of the European Commission (EC) José Manuel Barroso warned of a crash that would instantly wipe out half of the value of Europe’s economy, plunging the continent into a depression as deep as the 1930s slump. The result of such an economic shock would be the emergence of extremism and divisions within Europe, the former Portuguese prime minister told his German audience. “Just as the founding fathers had a vision of Europe after two devastating world wars, we must also now act with resilience and with vision towards a Europe that is strong but open,” he said. “Now is Germany’s time to show that it is fighting the cause of a strong, integrated and competitive Europe”.1 It was a serious warning, though designed and targeted at the German audience. The problem is that it may also have been too little too late. For two years, systemic and pervasive eurozone problems have been deferred or treated with partial solutions, and time is running out. What specifically led to these very serious warnings in mid-autumn of 2011? And what would be the role of China in the rescue operations of the eurozone? This brief examines these issues by taking a broader look into the retreat of globalization in the aftermath of the global crisis of 2008 before turning its attention to the eurozone crisis. The brief then provides an overview of the evolution of the EU-China relations and considers the role and responses of China to the unfolding eurozone crisis

Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control Agreements between three Peer Adversaries

NPS NRP Technical ReportThis research will investigate the implications of China as a peer nuclear armed adversary and how this effects US deterrence strategy that has traditionally been concerned with bilateral deterrence between the USA and Russia. The introduction of a third peer nuclear armed nation adds significant complexity and dynamics that were not present before. China has not been party to previous nuclear arms control agreements and they have been developing their nuclear capabilities at a faster pace than any other nation. However, they have committed to the Nuclear Nonproliferation treaty and a policy of no first use. It is vital to understand what motivates Chinese leadership, and what would cause them to voluntarily engage in arms control agreements with the purpose of adding stability to nuclear deterrence between the three nations. This research will help understand these issues, as well as offer recommendations to modify US nuclear deterrence to better deter and stabilize deterrence between the US and China while maintaining effective deterrence between the US and Russia. Also, the power dynamics between China and Russia must also be understood to help implement policies to support, and avoid mistakes that could undermine, deterrence between them.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

China\u27s Military Space Strategy: A Dialectical Materialism Perspective

China’s military space strategy accommodates in significant ways the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) ideological commitment to dialectical materialism. This Marxian commitment persists and manifests in China’s investment in space power despite the Party’s widely acknowledged development of state capitalism to guide China’s economy

Climate change and security in Asia: issues and implications for Australia

Introduction The British Foreign and Commonwealth Office has recently begun talking about the challenge of \u27climate security\u27, and former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has said that “Global climate change must take its place alongside the threats of conflict, poverty and the proliferation of deadly weapons that have traditionally monopolized first-order political attention”. Climate change poses clears risks to Australia\u27s interests in trade, aid and political stability in Asia. This not inconsiderable risk poses some complex challenges to Australian foreign policy. This paper explores the risks climate change poses to security in Asia and the options for Australian foreign policy. &nbsp

Urban and river flooding: Comparison of flood risk management approaches in the UK and China and an assessment of future knowledge needs

Increased urbanisation, economic growth, and long-term climate variability have made both the UK and China more susceptible to urban and river flooding, putting people and property at increased risk. This paper presents a review of the current flooding challenges that are affecting the UK and China and the actions that each country is undertaking to tackle these problems. Particular emphases in this paper are laid on (1) learning from previous flooding events in the UK and China, and (2) which management methodologies are commonly used to reduce flood risk. The paper concludes with a strategic research plan suggested by the authors, together with proposed ways to overcome identified knowledge gaps in flood management. Recommendations briefly comprise the engagement of all stakeholders to ensure a proactive approach to land use planning, early warning systems, and water-sensitive urban design or redesign through more effective policy, multi-level flood models, and data driven models of water quantity and quality

A Neoclassical Realist’s Analysis Of Sino-U.S. Space Policy

During the Cold War, the United States focused its collective policy acumen on forming a competitive, actor-specific strategy to gain advantage over the Soviet Union. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union resulted in a multi-polar geopolitical environment lacking a near-peer rival for the United States. Overwhelming soft and hard power advantages allowed American policy makers to peruse a general, non-actor specific strategy to maintain its hegemonic position. However, the meteoric rise of China as a near-peer competitor in East Asia has challenged this paradigm. In order to maintain its competitive advantage, or at the very least ensure the safety of its geopolitical objectives through encouraging benign competition, U.S. strategy needs to evolve in both focus and complexity. It is essential for Spacepower, as a key element of national power, to be included in this evolution. In order to do so, this analysis will examine Sino-U.S. space relations using neoclassical realism as a baseline methodology. First, structural elements of the Sino-U.S. relationship will be modeled in a semi-quantitative game theoretical framework, using relative economic and military capabilities as primary independent variables. Second, key assumptions will be tested to ensure that this model accurately represents the current geopolitical environment. Third, the decision making apparatuses of the United States and China will be examined as intervening variables. This will account for imperfect rationality and how it modifies the game theoretical framework. Fourth, this framework will be used to present actionable space policy recommendations for the United States so that space can be incorporated into a competitive strategy for East Asia