Root Cause Analysis in Business Processes

Conceptual modeling is an important tool for understanding and revealing weaknesses of business processes. Yet, the current practice in reengineering projects often considers simply the as-is control flow and uses the respective model barely as a reference for brain-storming about improvement opportunities. This approach heavily relies on the intuition of the participants and misses a clear description of steps to identify root causes of problems. In contrast to that, this paper introduces a systematic methodology to detect and document the quality dimension of a business process. It builds on the definition of softgoals for each process activity, of correlations between softgoals, and metrics to measure the occurrence of quality issues. In this regard our contribution is a foundation of root-cause analysis in business process modeling, and a conceptual integration of goal-based and activity-based approaches to capturing processes

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Comment: Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

Comment: Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design [arXiv:0708.0279]Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000529 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

State Space Methods in gretl

gretl is a general-purpose econometric package, whose most important characteristic is being free software. This ensures that its source code is freely available under the general public license (GPL) and, like most GPL software, that it can be used free of charge. As of version 1.8.1 (released in May 2009), it offers a mechanism for handling linear state space models in a reasonably general and efficient way. This article illustrates its main features with two examples.

The second gamma-H2AX assay inter-comparison exercise carried out in the framework of the European biodosimetry network (RENEB)

Purpose: Within the EU RENEB project, seven laboratories have taken part in training and harmonisation activities to strengthen triage gamma H2AX-based radiation exposure assessment. This has culminated in a second triage biodosimetry exercise. Materials and methods: Whole blood and separated lymphocyte samples were homogenously irradiated with 60Co gamma rays at 0.5, 2.5 (blind samples), 0 and 2 Gy (reference samples). Following post-exposure incubations of 4 and 24 h, 16 samples were shipped on ice packs to each partner. The samples were stained and scored for gamma-H2AX foci, using manual and/or automated fluorescence microscope scoring strategies. Dose estimates were obtained and used to assign triage categories to the samples. Results: Average dose estimates across all the laboratories correlated well with true doses. The most accurate assignment of triage category was achieved by manual scoring of the 4-h blood and lymphocyte samples. Only three samples out of a total of 46 were miscategorized in a way that could have adversely effected the clinical management of a radiation casualty. Conclusions: This inter-comparison exercise has demonstrated that following a recent acute radiation exposure, the gamma-H2AX assay could be a useful triage tool that can be successfully applied across a network of laboratories

Expert systems for superalloy studies

There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES)

Pathfinder autonomous rendezvous and docking project

Capabilities are being developed and demonstrated to support manned and unmanned vehicle operations in lunar and planetary orbits. In this initial phase, primary emphasis is placed on definition of the system requirements for candidate Pathfinder mission applications and correlation of these system-level requirements with specific requirements. The FY-89 activities detailed are best characterized as foundation building. The majority of the efforts were dedicated to assessing the current state of the art, identifying desired elaborations and expansions to this level of development and charting a course that will realize the desired objectives in the future. Efforts are detailed across all work packages in developing those requirements and tools needed to test, refine, and validate basic autonomous rendezvous and docking elements

Major Indian ICT firms and their approaches towards achieving quality

Of the three basic theories of innovation: the entrepreneur theory, the technology-economics theory and the strategic theory, the third one seems to be highly appropriate for the analysis of recent growth of the information and communication technology (ICT) industry in many developing countries including India. The central measure for achieving quality by the various major Indian ICT firms is widely agreed to have been the adoption of Six Sigma Methodology and various other approaches like Total Quality Management (TQM), Supply Chain Management (SCM), Customer Relationship Management (CRM), etc. It is apparent that the main objective of the firms chosen has been to increase the pace of innovation activities, irrespective of their different areas of product specialisation. Its success also depends largely on the overall improvement in infrastructure, besides active market interaction. To enable both the above, a brief highlight on the establishment of interaction and learning sites (ILSs) in every regional State in India comes to the foreground. The chapter concludes with a mention of the elements observed to be missing among the firms under consideration, and, thereby, delineating the scope for their further improvement.