Inverse modeling and mapping US air quality influences of inorganic PM_(2.5) precursor emissions using the adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Influences of specific sources of inorganic PM_(2.5) on peak and ambient aerosol concentrations in the US are evaluated using a combination of inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. First, sulfate and nitrate aerosol measurements from the IMPROVE network are assimilated using the four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) method into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model in order to constrain emissions estimates in four separate month-long inversions (one per season). Of the precursor emissions, these observations primarily constrain ammonia (NH_3). While the net result is a decrease in estimated US~NH_3 emissions relative to the original inventory, there is considerable variability in adjustments made to NH_3 emissions in different locations, seasons and source sectors, such as focused decreases in the midwest during July, broad decreases throughout the US~in January, increases in eastern coastal areas in April, and an effective redistribution of emissions from natural to anthropogenic sources. Implementing these constrained emissions, the adjoint model is applied to quantify the influences of emissions on representative PM_(2.5) air quality metrics within the US. The resulting sensitivity maps display a wide range of spatial, sectoral and seasonal variability in the susceptibility of the air quality metrics to absolute emissions changes and the effectiveness of incremental emissions controls of specific source sectors. NH_3 emissions near sources of sulfur oxides (SO_x) are estimated to most influence peak inorganic PM_(2.5) levels in the East; thus, the most effective controls of NH_3 emissions are often disjoint from locations of peak NH_3 emissions. Controls of emissions from industrial sectors of SO_x and NO_x are estimated to be more effective than surface emissions, and changes to NH_3 emissions in regions dominated by natural sources are disproportionately more effective than regions dominated by anthropogenic sources. NOx controls are most effective in northern states in October; in January, SO_x controls may be counterproductive. When considering ambient inorganic PM_(2.5) concentrations, intercontinental influences are small, though transboundary influences within North America are significant, with SO_x emissions from surface sources in Mexico contributing almost a fourth of the total influence from this sector

UAA Inventory: Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transportation

As a signatory of the American College and University Presidents Climate Commitment, UAA has agreed to conduct an inventory of its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This inventory serves as a baseline against which to measure the effectiveness of GHG emissions reduction projects. To fulfill the Commitment UAA agreed to conduct an inventory of its Scope 1 and 2 emissions, as well as some Scope 3 emissions. In addition to signing the Presidents Climate Commitment, UAA signed the Talloires Declaration in April 2004. The Talloires Declaration is a statement of principles and practices for using higher education to promote sustainability. Scope 1 emissions are defined as direct GHG emissions occurring from sources that are owned or controlled by the institution. Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions generated in the production of energy purchased by the institution. Scope 3 emissions are indirect emissions that are the consequence of the activities of the institution, but occur from sources not owned or controlled by the institution. Pursuant to the Commitment, this study estimates the levels of two types of Scope 3 GHG emissions – commuting by students and employees, and university-funded air travel. Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions are being estimated in a separate study. Two models were developed and used: a UAA commuter model and a UAA air travel model.Office of Sustainability, University of Alaska Anchorag

Cities, traffic, and CO2: A multidecadal assessment of trends, drivers, and scaling relationships

Emissions of CO2 from road vehicles were 1.57 billion metric tons in 2012, accounting for 28% of US fossil fuel CO2 emissions, but the spatial distributions of these emissions are highly uncertain. We develop a new emissions inventory, the Database of Road Transportation Emissions (DARTE), which estimates CO2 emitted by US road transport at a resolution of 1 km annually for 1980-2012. DARTE reveals that urban areas are responsible for 80% of on-road emissions growth since 1980 and for 63% of total 2012 emissions. We observe nonlinearities between CO2 emissions and population density at broad spatial/temporal scales, with total on-road CO2 increasing nonlinearly with population density, rapidly up to 1,650 persons per square kilometer and slowly thereafter. Per capita emissions decline as density rises, but at markedly varying rates depending on existing densities. We make use of DARTE's bottom-up construction to highlight the biases associated with the common practice of using population as a linear proxy for disaggregating national- or state-scale emissions. Comparing DARTE with existing downscaled inventories, we find biases of 100% or more in the spatial distribution of urban and rural emissions, largely driven by mismatches between inventory downscaling proxies and the actual spatial patterns of vehicle activity at urban scales. Given cities' dual importance as sources of CO2 and an emerging nexus of climate mitigation initiatives, high-resolution estimates such as DARTE are critical both for accurately quantifying surface carbon fluxes and for verifying the effectiveness of emissions mitigation efforts at urban scales.https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421723112Published versio

Carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) for emissions reduction in the New Zealand electricity sector

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) is a recent extension of traditional thermal and mass pinch analysis to the area of emissions targeting and planning on a macroscale (i.e. economy wide). This paper presents a carbon pinch analysis of the New Zealand electricity industry and illustrates some of the issues with realising meaningful emissions reductions. The current large proportion of renewable generation sources (~67% in 2007) complicates wholesale emissions reductions. The biggest growth in renewable generation is expected to come from geothermal energy followed by wind and hydro. A four fold increase in geothermal generation capacity is needed in addition to large amounts of new wind generation to reduce emissions to around 1990 levels and also meet projected demand. The expected expansion of geothermal generation in New Zealand raises issues of GHG emissions from the geothermal fields. The emissions factors between fields can vary by almost two orders of magnitude making predictions of total emissions highly site specific

An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories cross after several decades, before diverging again. We find that their global mean temperatures are, to first order, linear with cumulative emissions, though regional differences in temperature of up to 1.5K exist when cumulative emissions of each pair coincide. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above cumulative emissions of around one trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). Most carbon fluxes and stores are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. Averaged over the two fixed-emissions experiments, the transient response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC-1, at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of 0.8-2.5 K TtC-1

What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?

The paper reports on the development of UK transport targets for CO2 emissions for 2050. Five key studies containing future carbon emissions scenarios for the UK were used to establish targets for overall reductions in emissions to achieve stabilisation at 550 ppm and 450 ppm of atmospheric CO2. Two approaches were used to consider the proportion of total emissions that would be attributable to transport in the future: 26% of total emissions as now and an increase to 41% of total emissions in line with forecasts. The overall targets and expected contributions from transport were used to derive target emissions for the transport sector to be achieved by 2050, which ranged from 8.2 MtC to 25.8 MtC. Even the weakest of these targets represents a considerable reduction from current emissions levels

Modeling Impacts of Cold Climates on Vehicle Emissions

This project relates to the research thrust area of ‘environmental impact assessment,' specifically the impact of cold climates on vehicle exhaust emissions. Motor vehicles emit pollutants that are harmful to human. Emissions are thought to be elevated during engine cold starts. During winter, low-lying temperature inversion can trap vehicle emissions near the surface, leading to significantly elevated pollutant concentrations. Despite the importance, vehicle emissions data for cold climates are sparse and the accuracy of vehicle emissions model parameterizations for cold climates is not known. The goal of this project is to improve ability of EPA's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model to simulate cold start emissions in cold climate

Nitrous Oxide Emissions

End of project reportNitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the three most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Nitrous oxide emissions currently account for approximately one third of GHG emissions from agriculture in Ireland. Emissions of N2O arise naturally from soil sources and from the application of nitrogen (N) in the form of N fertilizers and N in dung and urine deposition by grazing animals at pasture. Nitrous oxide emission measurements were conducted at three different scales. Firstly, a large-scale field experiment was undertaken to compare emission rates from a pasture receiving three different rates of N fertilizer application and to identify the effects of controlling variables over a two-year period. Variation in emission rates was large both within and between years. Two contrasting climatic years were identified. The cooler and wetter conditions in year 1 gave rise to considerably lower emission levels than the warmer and drier year 2. However, in both years, peak emissions were associated with fertilizer N applications coincident with rainfall events in the summer months. A small-plot study was conducted to identify the individual and combined effects of fertilizer, dung and urine applications to grassland. Treatment effects were however, difficult to obtain due to the overriding effects of environmental variables. Thirdly, through the use of a small-scale mini-lysimeter study, the diurnal nature of N2O emission rates was identified for two distinct periods during the year. The occurrence of a diurnal pattern has important implications for the identification of a measurement period during the day which is representative of the true daily flux. The research presented aims to identify the nature and magnitude of N2O emissions and the factors which affect emission rates from a grassland in Ireland. Further work is required to integrate the effects of different soil types and contrasting climatic regimes across soil types on N2O emissions.Environmental Protection Agenc

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m[superscript −2] in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m[superscript −2] by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (Advanced Research Fellowship NE/I021365/1)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Upper Atmospheric Research Program Grant NNX11AF17G)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratio