The influence of long term trends in pollutant emissions on deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and exceedance of critical loads in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, as with other European countries, land-based emissions of NOX and SO2 have fallen significantly over the last few decades. SO2 emissions fell from a peak of 3185 Gg S in 1970 to 344 Gg S in 2005 and are forecast by business-as-usual emissions scenarios to fall to 172 Gg by 2020. NOX emissions were at a maximum of 951 Gg N in 1970 and fell to 378 by 2005 with a further decrease to 243 Gg N forecast by 2020. These large changes in emissions have not been matched by emissions changes for NH3 which decreased from 315 Gg N in 1990 to 259 in 2005 and are forecast to fall to 222 by 2020. The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen deposition over the United Kingdom during a 15 year time period (1990-2005) and compared with measured deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium from the national monitoring network. Wet deposition of nitrogen and sulphur was found to decrease more slowly than the emissions reductions rate. This is attributed to a number of factors including increases in emissions from international shipping and changing rates of atmospheric oxidation. The modelled time series was extended to a 50 year period from 1970 to 2020. The modelled deposition of SOx, NOy and NHx to the UK was found to fall by 87%, 52% and 25% during this period. The percentage of the United Kingdom surface area for which critical loads are exceeded is estimated to fall from 85% in 1970 to 37% in 2020 for acidic deposition and from 73% to 49% for nutrient nitrogen deposition. The significant reduction in land emissions of SO2 and NOX focuses further attention in controlling emissions from international shipping. Future policies to control emissions of ammonia from agriculture will be required to effect further significant reductions in nitrogen deposition

Comparison of modelled and monitored deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen to ICP-forest sites in Europe

The EMEP MSC-W Eulerian chemical transport model, and its predictions of deposition of acidifying and eutrophying pollutants over Europe, play a key role in the development of emission control strategies for Europe. It is important that this model is tested against observational data. Here we compare the results of the EMEP model with measured data from 160 sites of the European Union/ICP Forest (Level II) monitoring network, for the years 1997 and 2000. This comparison comprises: (a) Precipitation amount, (b) Total deposition of SO42- to coniferous and deciduous forests, (c) Wet deposition of SO42-, NO3- and NH4+ in open field sites, and (d) Concentrations of SO42-, NO3- and NH4+ in precipitation. Concerning precipitation, the EMEP model and ICP network showed very similar overall levels (within 4% for 1997 and 11% for 2000). The correlation was, however, poor (r2=0.15-0.23). This can be attributed largely to the influence of a few outliers, combined with a small range of rainfall amounts for most points. Correlations between modelled and observed deposition values in this study were rather high (r2 values between 0.4-0.8 for most components and years), with mean values across all sites being within 30%. The EMEP model tends to give somewhat lower values for SO42-, NO3- and NH4+ wet deposition to ICP, but differences in mean values were within 20% in 1997 and 30% in 2000. Modelled and observed concentrations of SO 42-, NO3- and NH4+ in precipitation are very similar on average (differences of 0-14%), with good correlation between modelled and observed data (r 2=0.50-0.78). Differences between the EMEP model and ICP measurements are thought to arise from a mixture of problems with both the observations and model. However, the overall conclusion is that the EMEP model performs rather well in reproducing patterns of S and N deposition to European forests

Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS-EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

The development and application of chemistry transport models has a long tradition. Within the Netherlands the LOTOS–EUROS model has been developed by a consortium of institutes, after combining its independently developed predecessors in 2005. Recently, version 2.0 of the model was released as an open-source version. This paper presents the curriculum vitae of the model system, describing the model's history, model philosophy, basic features and a validation with EMEP stations for the new benchmark year 2012, and presents cases with the model's most recent and key developments. By setting the model developments in context and providing an outlook for directions for further development, the paper goes beyond the common model description. With an origin in ozone and sulfur modelling for the models LOTOS and EUROS, the application areas were gradually extended with persistent organic pollutants, reactive nitrogen, and primary and secondary particulate matter. After the combination of the models to LOTOS–EUROS in 2005, the model was further developed to include new source parametrizations (e.g. road resuspension, desert dust, wildfires), applied for operational smog forecasts in the Netherlands and Europe, and has been used for emission scenarios, source apportionment, and long-term hindcast and climate change scenarios. LOTOS–EUROS has been a front-runner in data assimilation of ground-based and satellite observations and has participated in many model intercomparison studies. The model is no longer confined to applications over Europe but is also applied to other regions of the world, e.g. China. The increasing interaction with emission experts has also contributed to the improvement of the model's performance. The philosophy for model development has always been to use knowledge that is state of the art and proven, to keep a good balance in the level of detail of process description and accuracy of input and output, and to keep a good record on the effect of model changes using benchmarking and validation. The performance of v2.0 with respect to EMEP observations is good, with spatial correlations around 0.8 or higher for concentrations and wet deposition. Temporal correlations are around 0.5 or higher. Recent innovative applications include source apportionment and data assimilation, particle number modelling, and energy transition scenarios including corresponding land use changes as well as Saharan dust forecasting. Future developments would enable more flexibility with respect to model horizontal and vertical resolution and further detailing of model input data. This includes the use of different sources of land use characterization (roughness length and vegetation), detailing of emissions in space and time, and efficient coupling to meteorology from different meteorological models