A novel ensemble method for the accurate prediction of the major oil prices in Tanzania

Global development relies much on oil to run different types of machines. Using oil to power many types of equipment is very important to world economic growth. The analysis of oil prices is crucial for the country's long-term stability. However, global monopoly producers, wars, and pandemics have contributed to the volatility of crude oil prices. As a result, the optimal prediction model for oil prices becomes crucial. The performance of several ensemble strategies on single traditional and machine learning models was examined in this study. We found that the weighted ensemble technique outperformed other ensemble and single models in predicting petrol and diesel prices in Tanzania based on four performance metrics. Furthermore, a spike in global oil prices necessitates global economic and political stability for non-oil-producing nations to avoid suffering the consequences. Finally, other ensemble approaches may be used and compared to predict the oil prices.

An Efficient Deep Learning Framework for Intelligent Energy Management in IoT Networks

[EN] Green energy management is an economical solution for better energy usage, but the employed literature lacks focusing on the potentials of edge intelligence in controllable Internet of Things (IoT). Therefore, in this article, we focus on the requirements of todays' smart grids, homes, and industries to propose a deep-learning-based framework for intelligent energy management. We predict future energy consumption for short intervals of time as well as provide an efficient way of communication between energy distributors and consumers. The key contributions include edge devices-based real-time energy management via common cloud-based data supervising server, optimal normalization technique selection, and a novel sequence learning-based energy forecasting mechanism with reduced time complexity and lowest error rates. In the proposed framework, edge devices relate to a common cloud server in an IoT network that communicates with the associated smart grids to effectively continue the energy demand and response phenomenon. We apply several preprocessing techniques to deal with the diverse nature of electricity data, followed by an efficient decision-making algorithm for short-term forecasting and implement it over resource-constrained devices. We perform extensive experiments and witness 0.15 and 3.77 units reduced mean-square error (MSE) and root MSE (RMSE) for residential and commercial datasets, respectively.This work was supported in part by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant Funded by the Korea Government (MSIT) under Grant 2019M3F2A1073179; in part by the "Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad" in the "Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnica de Excelencia, Subprograma Estatal de Generacion de Conocimiento" Within the Project under Grant TIN2017-84802-C2-1-P; and in part by the European Union through the ERANETMED (Euromediterranean Cooperation through ERANET Joint Activities and Beyond) Project ERANETMED3-227 SMARTWATIR.Han, T.; Muhammad, K.; Hussain, T.; Lloret, J.; Baik, SW. (2021). An Efficient Deep Learning Framework for Intelligent Energy Management in IoT Networks. IEEE Internet of Things. 8(5):3170-3179. https://doi.org/10.1109/JIOT.2020.3013306S317031798

Multiple decomposition-aided long short-term memory network for enhanced short-term wind power forecasting.

With the increasing penetration of grid-scale wind energy systems, accurate wind power forecasting is critical to optimizing their integration into the power system, ensuring operational reliability, and enabling efficient system asset utilization. Addressing this challenge, this study proposes a novel forecasting model that combines the long-short-term memory (LSTM) neural network with two signal decomposition techniques. The EMD technique effectively extracts stable, stationary, and regular patterns from the original wind power signal, while the VMD technique tackles the most challenging high-frequency component. A deep learning-based forecasting model, i.e. the LSTM neural network, is used to take advantage of its ability to learn from longer sequences of data and its robustness to noise and outliers. The developed model is evaluated against LSTM models employing various decomposition methods using real wind power data from three distinct offshore wind farms. It is shown that the two-stage decomposition significantly enhances forecasting accuracy, with the proposed model achieving R2 values up to 9.5% higher than those obtained using standard LSTM models

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Artificial intelligence in wind speed forecasting: a review

Wind energy production has had accelerated growth in recent years, reaching an annual increase of 17% in 2021. Wind speed plays a crucial role in the stability required for power grid operation. However, wind intermittency makes accurate forecasting a complicated process. Implementing new technologies has allowed the development of hybrid models and techniques, improving wind speed forecasting accuracy. Additionally, statistical and artificial intelligence methods, especially artificial neural networks, have been applied to enhance the results. However, there is a concern about identifying the main factors influencing the forecasting process and providing a basis for estimation with artificial neural network models. This paper reviews and classifies the forecasting models used in recent years according to the input model type, the pre-processing and post-processing technique, the artificial neural network model, the prediction horizon, the steps ahead number, and the evaluation metric. The research results indicate that artificial neural network (ANN)-based models can provide accurate wind forecasting and essential information about the specific location of potential wind use for a power plant by understanding the future wind speed values

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Edge-Based Health Care Monitoring System: Ensemble of Classifier Based Model

Health Monitoring System (HMS) is an excellent tool that actually saves lives. It makes use of transmitters to gather information and transmits it wirelessly to a receiver. Essentially, it is much more practical than the large equipment that the majority of hospitals now employ and continuously checks a patient's health data 24/7. The primary goal of this research is to develop a three-layered Ensemble of Classifier model on Edge based Healthcare Monitoring System (ECEHMS) and Gauss Iterated Pelican Optimization Algorithm (GIPOA) including data collection layer, data analytics layer, and presentation layer. As per our ECEHMS-GIPOA, the healthcare dataset is collected from the UCI repository. The data analytics layer performs preprocessing, feature extraction, dimensionality reduction and classification. Data normalization will be done in preprocessing step. Statistical features (Min/Max, SD, Mean, Median), improved higher order statistical features (Skewness, Kurtosis, Entropy), and Technical indicator based features were extracted during Feature Extraction step. Improved Fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) will be used for handling the Dimensionality reduction issue by clustering the appropriate feature set from the extracted features. Ensemble model is introduced to predict the disease stage that including the models like Deep Maxout Network (DMN), Improved Deep Belief Network (IDBN), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Also, the enhancement in prediction/classification accuracy is assured via optimal training. For which, a GIPOA is introduced. Finally, ECEHMS-GIPOA performance is compared with other conventional approaches like ASO, BWO, SLO, SSO, FPA, and POA