Characterising the Social Media Temporal Response to External Events

In recent years social media has become a crucial component of online information propagation. It is one of the fastest responding mediums to offline events, significantly faster than traditional news services. Popular social media posts can spread rapidly through the internet, potentially spreading misinformation and affecting human beliefs and behaviour. The nature of how social media responds allows inference about events themselves and provides insight into human behavioural characteristics. However, despite its importance, researchers don’t have a strong understanding of the temporal dynamics of this information flow. This thesis aims to improve understanding of the temporal relationship between events, news and associated social media activity. We do this by examining the temporal Twitter response to stimuli for various case studies, primarily based around politics and sporting events. The first part of the thesis focuses on the relationships between Twitter and news media. Using Granger causality, we provide evidence that the social media reaction to events is faster than the traditional news reaction. We also consider how accurately tweet and news volumes can be predicted, given other variables. The second part of the thesis examines information cascades. We show that the decay of retweet rates is well-modelled as a power law with exponential cutoff, providing a better model than the widely used power law. This finding, explained using human prioritisation of tasks, then allows the development of a method to estimate the size of a retweet cascade. The third major part of the thesis concerns tweet clustering methods in response to events. We examine how the likelihood that two tweets are related varies, given the time difference between them, and use this finding to create a clustering method using both textual and temporal information. We also develop a method to estimate the time of the event that caused the corresponding social media reaction.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, 201

A conceptual framework for studying collective reactions to events in location-based social media

Events are a core concept of spatial information, but location-based social media (LBSM) provide information on reactions to events. Individuals have varied degrees of agency in initiating, reacting to or modifying the course of events, and reactions include observations of occurrence, expressions containing sentiment or emotions, or a call to action. Key characteristics of reactions include referent events and information about who reacted, when, where and how. Collective reactions are composed of multiple individual reactions sharing common referents. They can be characterized according to the following dimensions: spatial, temporal, social, thematic and interlinkage. We present a conceptual framework, which allows characterization and comparison of collective reactions. For a thematically well-defined class of event such as storms, we can explore differences and similarities in collective attribution of meaning across space and time. Other events may have very complex spatio-temporal signatures (e.g. political processes such as Brexit or elections), which can be decomposed into series of individual events (e.g. a temporal window around the result of a vote). The purpose of our framework is to explore ways in which collective reactions to events in LBSM can be described and underpin the development of methods for analysing and understanding collective reactions to events

Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

When-To-Post on Social Networks

For many users on social networks, one of the goals when broadcasting content is to reach a large audience. The probability of receiving reactions to a message differs for each user and depends on various factors, such as location, daily and weekly behavior patterns and the visibility of the message. While previous work has focused on overall network dynamics and message flow cascades, the problem of recommending personalized posting times has remained an underexplored topic of research. In this study, we formulate a when-to-post problem, where the objective is to find the best times for a user to post on social networks in order to maximize the probability of audience responses. To understand the complexity of the problem, we examine user behavior in terms of post-to-reaction times, and compare cross-network and cross-city weekly reaction behavior for users in different cities, on both Twitter and Facebook. We perform this analysis on over a billion posted messages and observed reactions, and propose multiple approaches for generating personalized posting schedules. We empirically assess these schedules on a sampled user set of 0.5 million active users and more than 25 million messages observed over a 56 day period. We show that users see a reaction gain of up to 17% on Facebook and 4% on Twitter when the recommended posting times are used. We open the dataset used in this study, which includes timestamps for over 144 million posts and over 1.1 billion reactions. The personalized schedules derived here are used in a fully deployed production system to recommend posting times for millions of users every day.Comment: 10 pages, to appear in KDD201

How Emotions Unfold in Online Discussions After a Terror Attack

In the wake of a terror attack, social media is used for sharing thoughts and emotions, accessing and distributing information, and memorializing victims. Emotions are a big part of this, but there is a gap in our understanding on how those emotions evolve and what kinds of social media uses they are related to. Better understanding of the emotional and topical developments of online discussions can serve not only to fill the aforementioned gap, but also assist in developing better collective coping strategies for recovering from terror attacks. We examine what types of conversations unfolded online after the Boston Marathon Bombing and what kinds of emotions were associated with them, accounting for regional differences, and present a process model covering the general trends of such conversations. Although the phases apply to reactions to terror attacks on a general level, there are proximity-based differences to the location of the terror attack

Quantifying the Effect of Sentiment on Information Diffusion in Social Media

Social media have become the main vehicle of information production and consumption online. Millions of users every day log on their Facebook or Twitter accounts to get updates and news, read about their topics of interest, and become exposed to new opportunities and interactions. Although recent studies suggest that the contents users produce will affect the emotions of their readers, we still lack a rigorous understanding of the role and effects of contents sentiment on the dynamics of information diffusion. This work aims at quantifying the effect of sentiment on information diffusion, to understand: (i) whether positive conversations spread faster and/or broader than negative ones (or vice-versa); (ii) what kind of emotions are more typical of popular conversations on social media; and, (iii) what type of sentiment is expressed in conversations characterized by different temporal dynamics. Our findings show that, at the level of contents, negative messages spread faster than positive ones, but positive ones reach larger audiences, suggesting that people are more inclined to share and favorite positive contents, the so-called positive bias. As for the entire conversations, we highlight how different temporal dynamics exhibit different sentiment patterns: for example, positive sentiment builds up for highly-anticipated events, while unexpected events are mainly characterized by negative sentiment. Our contribution is a milestone to understand how the emotions expressed in short texts affect their spreading in online social ecosystems, and may help to craft effective policies and strategies for content generation and diffusion.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Jurisprudence under the perspective of the new media and its effect on the communication of law

Despite the law knowledge presumption, Jurisprudence has not always considered the effects introduced by the communication of law in the transition from the print to the electric revolution, using here concepts and ideas of McLuhan´s theory. The use of Internet by Brazilian Courts (on line transmission of trials, the digital process, transformation of courts in source of news on what concerns their decisions) is an interesting example of how the new medium interferes in the substance of the message of law, since the movement of the messages must be considered to understand the epistemological domain of law. New elements are introduced by the new media and interact with the old meanings, concepts and processes of law and of the old media and can themselves bring new conflicts that are relevant to the comprehension of the complete and real dynamics of Law

The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events