The impact of the unilateral EU commitment on the stability of international climate agreements

In this paper we analyze the negotiation strategy of the European Union regarding the formation of an international climate agreement for the post-2012 era. We use game theoretical stability concepts to explore incentives for key players in the climate policy game to join future climate agreements. We compare a minus 20 percent unilateral commitment strategy by the EU with a unilateral minus 30 percent emission reduction strategy for all Annex-B countries. Using a numerical integrated assessment climate-economy simulation model, we find that carbon leakage effects are negligible. The EU strategy to reduce emissions by 30% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2020 if other Annex-B countries follow does not induce participation of the USA with a similar 30% reduction commitment. However, the model shows that an appropriate initial allocation of emission allowances may stabilize a larger and more ambitious climate coalition than the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period.climate change, coalition theory, integrated assessment model, Kyoto protocol.

Optimal Information Transmission in Organizations: Search and Congestion

We propose a stylized model of a problem-solving organization whose internal communication structure is given by a fixed network. Problems arrive randomly anywhere in this network and must find their way to their respective “specialized solvers” by relying on local information alone. The organization handles multiple problems simultaneously. For this reason, the process may be subject to congestion. We provide a characterization of the threshold of collapse of the network and of the stock of floating problems (or average delay) that prevails below that threshold. We build upon this characterization to address a design problem: the determination of what kind of network architecture optimizes performance for any given problem arrival rate. We conclude that, for low arrival rates, the optimal network is very polarized (i.e. star-like or “centralized”), whereas it is largely homogenous (or “decentralized”) for high arrival rates. We also show that, if an auxiliary assumption holds, the transition between these two opposite structures is sharp and they are the only ones to ever qualify as optimal. Keywords: Networks, information transmission, search, organization design.Networks, Information transmission, Search, Organization design

Dynamic Recontracting processes with Multiple Indivisible Goods

We consider multiple-type housing markets. To capture the dynamic aspect of trade in such markets, we study a dynamic recontracting process similar to the one introduced by Serrano and Volij (2005). First, we analyze the set of recurrent classes of this process as a (non-empty) solution concept. We show that each core allocation always constitutes a singleton recurrent class and provide examples of non-singleton recurrent classes consisting of blocking-cycles of individually rational allocations. For multiple-type housing markets stochastic stability never serves as a selection device among recurrent classes. Next, we propose a method to compute the limit invariant distribution of the dynamic recontracting process. The limit invariant distribution exploits the interplay of coalitional stability and accessibility that determines a probability distribution over final allocations. We provide various examples to demonstrate how the limit invariant distribution discriminates among stochastically stable allocations: surprisingly, some core allocations are less likely to be final allocations of the dynamic process than cycles composed of non-core allocations.microeconomics ;

The Formation of Financial Networks

Modern banking systems are highly interconnected. Despite their various benefits, the linkages that exist between banks carry the risk of contagion. In this paper we investigate how banks decide on direct balance sheet linkages and the implications for contagion risk. In particular, we model a network formation process in the banking system. Banks form links order to reduce the risk of contagion. The network is formed endogenously and serves as an insurance mechanism. We show that banks manage to form networks that are resilient to contagion. Thus, in an equilibrium network, the probability of contagion is virtually 0.Financial Stability, Network Formation, Contagion Risk